06-23-2019, 11:36 PM
First things first, thanks Fred for pointing me to Pro Football Reference; it let me do a lot of detailed breakdowns of last year. Here are some to chew on...
On third down we AVERAGED 7.87 yards to go - 24% of the time it was 11+ yards to go.
On second down we AVERAGED 8 yards to go - and only 35% of the time we were in 2nd and 6 or fewer yards to go.
This indicates that the offense was not winning first or second down so third down was starting out in low probability territory.
As far as run/pass balance, we were a pretty balanced 52.8% pass on first down. Second down it zoomed to 62.5% pass and on third down it was 80% pass (which makes sense when the AVERAGE is 3rd and 8).
And some more interesting things to look at, namely what were our tendencies in those rare times we had third and manageable (4 yards or less):
3rd and 1: 73.7% rush. Okay that seems reasonable.
3rd and 2: 29.4% rush....interesting
3rd and 3: 25% rush....see a pattern?
3rd and 4: 20% rush...this actually sort of makes sense as 4+ is typically where most offenses start saying "passing down".
If anyone still wonders why ZT and Callahan have focused on blocking in the offseason this is why. It tells a story of an offensive line that did not win at the line of scrimmage and that the prior coaches seemed not to trust to be able to consistently do so.
On third down we AVERAGED 7.87 yards to go - 24% of the time it was 11+ yards to go.
On second down we AVERAGED 8 yards to go - and only 35% of the time we were in 2nd and 6 or fewer yards to go.
This indicates that the offense was not winning first or second down so third down was starting out in low probability territory.
As far as run/pass balance, we were a pretty balanced 52.8% pass on first down. Second down it zoomed to 62.5% pass and on third down it was 80% pass (which makes sense when the AVERAGE is 3rd and 8).
And some more interesting things to look at, namely what were our tendencies in those rare times we had third and manageable (4 yards or less):
3rd and 1: 73.7% rush. Okay that seems reasonable.
3rd and 2: 29.4% rush....interesting
3rd and 3: 25% rush....see a pattern?
3rd and 4: 20% rush...this actually sort of makes sense as 4+ is typically where most offenses start saying "passing down".
If anyone still wonders why ZT and Callahan have focused on blocking in the offseason this is why. It tells a story of an offensive line that did not win at the line of scrimmage and that the prior coaches seemed not to trust to be able to consistently do so.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
