Did Cleveland rob the Reds?

[CJD]

(09-03-2019, 07:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So a 2.95 ERA over the last two years with the Indians (332 IP) is just "average"?

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, exactly. I calculate a 3.20 ERA in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. 

But that number is pulled WAY down by his one single great year, which was last year.

His ERAs in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 4.19, 4.26, 4.55 and 4.18.
His WHIPs in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 1.367, 1.311, 1.313 and 1.379.
His ERA+ in the 4 full seasons prior to 2018 were 109, 106, 95 and 94.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml

The average ERA in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were 4.36, 4.19, 3.96 and 3.74.
The average WHIPs in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 were 1.342, 1.325, 1.294 and 1.275.
The average ERA+ in the 4 seasons prior to 2018 was presumably 100 each year (as that's what ERA+ is measuring against. The average).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/pitch.shtml

So yes.

Trevor Bauer, by nearly any definition of the word, is an average pitcher if you assume his 2018 season was an aberration.

And what he's done in 2019 (4.53 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 104 ERA+) are much closer to those previous 4 years than they are to 2018. So it's extremely fair to say he is an average starter based on the stats he is delivering.

His time as a Red has been FAR below average though, with an ERA of 8.40, a WHIP of 1.7 and and ERA+ of 55. It's only been 6 games, but what we've gotten so far from this trade has been complete and utter shit. At this point him being an average starter would be a dream come true!

If you have any more questions, I'd be happy to answer them.