09-05-2019, 12:30 PM
(09-04-2019, 06:29 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I was looking at Preseason stats (which are not ideal to determine regular season stats because many starters played limited). But I see that in the 4 games this year, Bengals are allowing 5.5 yards per play (Bengals averaged 4.9 yards per play). Opposing teams made more rushing attempts against the Bengals compared to passing attempts, averaging 3.4 yards per rush (Bengals averaged a putrid 3.0 yards per rush). Opposing teams made less passing attempts but were able to hit 7.8 yards per pass (Bengals averaged 6.5 yards per passing attempt). In other words, opposing teams were making more rush attempts but were even more efficient with passing attempts in terms of yards gained. The good news, is that the Bengals edge opponents in total offensive yards, TOP and First Downs this preseason.
My understanding of the 5-1-5, 5-2-4, 4-2-5, 4-3-4 is limited because Lou and his defensive schemes have not been observed in regular season games with regular starters. Bengals will rotate players but I think they will get their best players on the field at the same time whenever possible.
Nevertheless, when I look at the final 53 roster (and this may change as it is fluid at this time) and I see the team keep 3 NT (and only 4 backers), it tells me that they may have 2 NTs on the field at the same time for anticipated rushing plays. I think they will try to keep Atkins on the field as well. Billings, Tupou, and Wren are listed as NT position. All 3 are large immovable rocks, hence "Mt. Wren" type. If the NTs do their job, they will block guards from clearing the LOS. PB will probably get most time on the field at MIKE and can react to gaps.
To answer the OP more directly, I think the Bengals are relying on their D-Line talent, which some consider the teeth of the defense, to contain the run.
The team may go with Lawson or Hubbard or Wynn who will be standing at the LOS or slightly off LOS and may move around like the old Zone-Blitz schemes the Steelers implemented years ago. Wynn or even Hubbard can drop off into coverage and Lawson can terrorize the QB. Also, Brown has looked great this preseason and can play inside or outside. So the D-Line could have a variety of looks (someone probably can do a better job at alignments then I illustrate below):
Dunlap-Billings-Wren/Tupou-Atkins-Brown/Lawson
PB
5 DBs
Dunlap-Billings-Atkins-Brown-Lawson (off LOS standing)
Wynn/Hubbard (hybrid backer/LDE Standing)-PB
4 DBs
Dunlap-Billings-Glasgow/Atkins-Lawson
Vigil-PB-Evans/Pratt
4 DBs
Hubbard/Dunlap-Wren/Tupou-Brown-Lawson (When Atkins needs a breather)
PB-Evans/Pratt
5 DBs
On paper, the use of two NTs on occasion will force opponents to get their players in space unless a rusher breaks containment. The problem I can see with these defense alignments is allowing other teams hitting TE on crossing routes or in the flat with fast RB. Even screens may work for opponents.
Do the Bengals have anyone besides Bates that can cover TE? I can see the Bengals defense giving up big plays if opponents get a player in space, especially if the RB breaks through the LOS and gets by PB.
Pratt can cover TE's and RB's. I think he would be the Linebacker i would use in those situations over Preston.
Even if he is a rookie. Great post by the way Psych.
