How Long Will The Depression/Recession Last?

[JustWinBaby]

(04-09-2020, 10:45 AM)grampahol Wrote: This is not going to be a mere pause. ...Does the phrase mass starvation mean anything?

I didn't say it was going to be a mere pause.  I said right now, the economy [combined with the stimulus], is basically on pause.  Most people have, or will be given the money, to get through the 2 months of lockdown. 

$6T is damn near 30% of GDP....so basically we printed enough money to innoculate the economy for about 3.5 months.  Kind of like getting an insurance payment - tornado hits your factory, you get your business interruption insurance, and your losses are wiped away putting you right back where you were before the tornado hit.  That's what I meant by the economy being on "pause", because the govt printed the money to make you whole from the damage caused by coronavirus.

And your latter point is why we can't remain locked-up forever.  It will kill many more people than the virus.  The main point of the lockdown is catch-up on the medical front, because quarantines are absolutely not sustainable.

But when we get back to work, we may have a temporary bump.  I'd say it's likely.  Not sure for how long, but eventually fundamentals change with several sectors struggling.  And then that's what drags us right back down into a recession.  Getting healthy again will depend on when a vaccine is widely available OR if therapeutics are found to knock this down to something more manageable on par with the flu.  Because that's the only scenario where Travel and F&B sectors can rebound....so 12-18 months, minus maybe 3 months of a temporary bounce.