Comparing AJ Green and Tee Higgins as prospects

[CJD]

What's up guys. I've been on the Tee Higgins at 33 hype train for about 3 months now and I was so unbelievably stoked to see we actually got him on Friday. I was having my doubts, because we did have huge needs at LB and OL and with Baun and Jones there, I was relatively certain we weren't going to go with the "luxury pick" of a WR at 33.

But, luckily for me, the Bengals saw what I saw in Tee Higgins which is, for lack of a better term, AJ Green 2.0.

This guy has incredible hands, incredible catch radius and incredible athleticism and focus to make circus catches.

Some people, including the guys over at Walterfootball.com, did not like this pick because Higgins, as they put it, "doesn't project well for the NFL. He reminds me of N'Keal Harry in terms of his inability to separate from coverage."

I'm not absolutely certain where he gets that evaluation from. As I watch his tape, I know that it isn't based off of that, because we see him separate all the time on tape. So it must be his pro day numbers which, to be perfectly honest, weren't the best. His vert and broad jump numbers would not have ranked in the top 15 WRs at the combine and his speed was not under 4.5 (not that anyone actually thought it would be, of course.)

So, what I decided to do was pull up AJ Green's NFL draft profile and see just how far off Higgins was, athletically and physically, from Green. And I was a bit surprised.

First, let's talk about physical measurables.
AJ Green was 6'4", 211 lbs with 34 3/8" arms and 9 1/2" inch hands.
Tee Higgins is 6'4", 216 lbs with 34 1/8" arms and 9 1/2" inch hands.
Striking similarities so far.

As they said on ESPN's coverage of the pick, at the 4:25 minute mark in the below video, In the last 10 drafts, there've been 4 wide outs in the first round with arms that long (longer than 34"), Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, AJ Green and Dez Bryant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVCJlj6jhss&feature=youtu.be&t=263

So his physical measurables are in pretty elite company.

Next, let's look at his athletic numbers.
At the 2011 combine, AJ Green ran a 4.50 40, had a 34.5 inch vert, a 126 inch broad, a 6.91 3 cone drill and a 4.21 20 yard shuffle.
At the 2020 Clemson Pro Day, Tee Higgins ran a 4.54 40, had a 31" vert, a 123 inch broad and a 4.25 20 yard shuffle.
I'm not sure why he didn't do the 3 cone drill, as I can't find any data on it, but those numbers are strikingly similar.
It's true that AJ Green bested Higgins in every regard, but only by 3 inches or less than a twentieth of a second in each drill.

So, athletically they're very similar and physically they're very similar. What about in terms of production?
In AJ Green's college career, he played 32 games, had 166 receptions for 2619 yards and 23 touchdowns in 3 years. Oddly enough (and this surprised me a ton), his best year was his freshman year because it was the only year he played the full season. He had 56 receptions for 963 yards (17.2 average) and 8 TDs.

In Tee Higgins' college career, he played 37 games, had 135 receptions for 2448 yards and 27 touchdowns in 3 years. His best year was his junior year, where he played all 15 games and had 59 receptions for 1167 yards (19.8 average) and 13 touchdowns.

It's worth noting that, with the college playoff system, Higgins played more games in his sophomore and junior year merely as a function of Clemson making it through those additional 2 games each year. It's also worth nothing that in the two years that he blew up, Higgins had Trevor Lawrence throwing him the ball whereas Green had Aaron Murray so his stats are a bit more padded, but Higgins' yards per catch and touchdowns were both far higher than AJ Green's were in college.

So, Higgins is similar to Green physically, athletically and arguably superior (or at the very least, equally) productive in college. Hell, they even have similar personalities, as Tee notes in the article that he wrote leading up to the draft. (by the way, it's a damn compelling read).

Quote:She made sure I understood the importance of getting a good education and of always trying to do the right thing. I never went anywhere near drugs. Ever. Never really got into any trouble at all. I was that quiet kid who was just always about his business. All I ever wanted to do was whatever I thought would make my mom the most proud.
...
I’m someone who has lived through some stuff, someone who appreciates every single day and goes out of his way to bring a ton of optimism and positive energy to the locker room. My whole vibe is just … put in the work, never complain, and earn the respect of the veterans. Show people right away that you’re someone they can trust, someone who will always have their backs.

I’m never going to take anything for granted. Ever.

I stay humble. And really, after all that you know about me now, think about it….

So what's left? Let's just take a look at actual plays the two players made in college.

Here are AJ Green's 2010 highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aABY_tEmewg&

Here is a highlight tape of Tee Higgins:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZhFddyD1-I&list=PLMCblKt-6_fcWI10PjOGWTTCTLVZsRZ5d&index=17&t=0s

Some notable comparisons:
At 0:13 in AJ Green's tape and 4:15 in Higgins' tape, see them both adjust to a contested pass in the end zone to make a 1 handed catch and hold on through contact with the ground for the touchdown. (You'd say Green's is more impressive, and I agree, but the hand-eye coordination is obvious in both cases).

At 1:17, Green splits the safety and CB and catches the deep ball and holds on through hard contact.
At 2:32 for Higgins, he doesn't get crushed like Green did, but he bounces off a big hit like he didn't even feel it.

At 1:50, Green beats the CB to the sideline and tightrope walks it to the end zone.
At 1:38, Higgins does the same.

At 1:57, Green breaks tackles and pushes forward for additional yards.
at 5:21, Higgins does the exact same thing, but actually finishes the run for the TD.

At 3:39, Green is headed for the sideline and jukes a player out of his shoes (Causing the player to lunge out of bounds) and proceeds to the end zone
At 0:58, Higgins puts an even more dramatic juke on a player to get an additional 10 yards on a quick out.
(There is another play where Higgins does a very similar thing, but it isn't in this particular video. I don't want to go find it because that's just too many videos to sift through and I think these 5 comparisons are enough.)

Other common themes throughout both videos (too numerous to give specific examples), watch how they both snatch the ball out of the air with their hands, rather than let it come into their body. You'll see Higgins a lot of times holding the ball above his head as he goes to the ground to prevent CBs from swatting it away. That's classic AJ Green.
Then you got your typical back shoulder throws that they both make look easy as all hell, them splitting the safeties deep for a touchdown and them going up and getting it where no one else can.
Then you'll see they both often draw offensive pass interference while also still catching the ball!

There are only two things that AJ Green does clearly better than Higgins.
1. Higgins is a toe tapper, but some of his best toe taps are 1 footed toe taps (4:01), whereas Green, even in college, had perfected the double toe tap. Obviously, 1 toe is all you need in college so maybe Higgins was just doing what needed to be done to get the catch, but it would have been nice to see him show off some NFL level toe tapping in college.

2. Adjusting to horribly thrown passes. You see it in AJ Green's tape at 1:12 and 2:27, where he catches a ball at least a yard off target on a simple slant. Higgins didn't do that too much in college, but that may be because Lawrence didn't throw too many of those. Higgins has shown the body contortion and athleticism required to make a play like that, as seen at 0:17 and 0:48, where he twists his body all the way around to catch the ball and then seamlessly continue on to the end zone.

But then, there's a reason Green went #4 overall, so it's expected that he is a better prospect than Higgins in some regard.

Did I mention Tee's a Bengals fan and that AJ Green is his role model?

This guy was, literally, the perfect pick at 33, just like Joe Burrow was the perfect pick at 1. And their strengths complement each other so well, as Joe is the king of the back shoulder throw and finding the sliver of space required to get his man a ball that only he can get to. We're blessed to have them both and they're going to be our new 9 to 85 connection for the next decade.

Who Dey!