Did You Know... (AJ Green)

[Whatever]

(05-29-2020, 08:17 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: So you think AJ would still be looking for work right now had we not tagged him? Because I pretty much guarantee he would have been snatched up early on in FA. He’s worth the gamble.

It depends.  Jadaveon Clowney is still out there looking for work.  If AJ were willing to take a cheap one year prove it deal, he would probably have been signed.  Nobody is giving him this fat multi-year deal he wants, though, and nobody else is gonna pay him $18 mil for 2020, though.  

That's the thing about gambling.  It's risk vs reward.  If AJ were willing to take a deal that was like $6-7 mil base and goes up to $10 mil with incentives, sure, it's worth the risk.  However, $18 mil is the 4th highest paid WR in the league by yearly average.  Statistically, 100 catches, 1200 yards, and 9 TD's would rank him 4th in all 3 categories.  What are the chances he hits those numbers?  Even if we're talking prime health, which we aren't, he has never had a 100 catch season.  He's had 2 over 90, but none since '13.  He's had 3 1200+ yard seasons, the last of which was '15.  He's also had 3 9+ TD seasons, the last of which was also in '15.  The Bengals will be lucky if he plays up to the FT.  There's very little reason to think he exceeds that level of play and very much reason believe he falls well short due to decline and/or injury.