How do Players retiring or being traded impact draft?

[CJD]

(01-20-2021, 02:08 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Think you're overestimating the value of the #5 unless you're talking about trading WAY back.

The first 3 picks are WAY more valuable than the 5th. The value chart for the first 10 picks of the draft goes... 3000, 2600, 2200, 1800, 1700 (CIN), 1600, 1500, 1400, 1350, 1300. So the 1st pick (4 spots up) is worth 1300 more than the 5th pick, and the 9th pick (4 spots down) is worth only 350 less.

I worked this out in a different thread and basically.... the Bengals 1st, 5th, and 7th round picks for Cowboys 1st and 2nd round picks is roughly equal value, with the Bengals getting a tiny value advantage.

Barring some huge unlikely bidding war, there's not going to be the type of return you are listing.

I dunno. Trading around in the top 10, especially when a QB is up for grabs, is really expensive and I don't think they really follow the trade value chart in those circumstances.

In 2018, moving from 6th to 3rd cost the Jets 3 second round picks. 
The Bills also traded from 12th to 7th that year and that cost them 2 second round picks (although they got a 7th rounder back, whatever that was worth).
The Cardinals traded the 15th pick and a 3rd and 5th to get to #10.


In 2017, moving up one slot from 3rd to 2nd cost Chicago a two 3rds and a 4th. 

In 2016, Philadelphia traded from #8 to #2 and it cost an additional 3rd, 4th and 1st rounder (they got back a 5th rounder).
Tennessee traded from 15 to 8 and it cost them a 3rd and a 2nd (they got back a 6th rounder).

In 2014, Cleveland traded the #4 pick to Buffalo for the #9 pick and an additional 1st and 4th rounder.

In 2013,  Miami traded the 12th overall pick and a 2nd round pick for the 3rd overall pick. 2013, if you remember, was a TERRIBLE year for QBs, as the highest drafted QB was EJ Manuel at 16, which meant there wasn't a whole lot of demand to trade up, since QBs are the target the vast majority of time someone trades up in the top 5. Since all the QBs in 2013 were trash (and turned out to be role players at best in the NFL), that meant trading up was more reasonable, since the demand to trade up was really low.

This is not the case this year, as some people are talking about 3 or even 4 QBs going in the top 5 this year. So if we're trading down from #5 overall, we're likely fielding several offers from people going after a QB, which will inevitably raise the price of trading up. I'd look at the Bills trade in 2018 and the Bills trade in 2014 as an archetype for what we could get if we choose to move down to the bottom of the top 10 or maybe into the top 15, which is a few 2nds or maybe even a 1st the following year. I'd say the Tennessee trade in 2016 would be our worst case scenario (dropping to 15 and getting an additional 2nd and 3rd).