03-02-2022, 11:30 AM
(03-02-2022, 10:25 AM)Au165 Wrote: Lukashenko slipped up and basically showed a map yesterday pointing to Moldova as the next stop, which I had alluded to earlier in this thread. The plan was never for this to end in Ukraine but with as poorly as it has gone I wonder if they will rethink where they go from here.
As others have said, this is probably going to be a slow and painful advance for the Russians. If they really want Kyiv, they will take it, but it will come at an enormous human and economic cost to them.
By the time they have established their own proxy government in Ukraine, it will require even more to hold it and holding it will be just as if not more painful than taking it. When that scenario comes to be, you'd have to think both the Russian citizenry and military leadership will grow pretty exhausted with Putin's desire to forge ahead.
I don't think Moldova has the same resources available to defend itself as Ukraine does, but if it becomes certain that they are a target, then I think the West will supply them with as much military and economic aid as they have for Ukraine.
Russia has seemingly tried to avoid urban street to street combat thus far, because they know how taxing it is on soldiers and morale. They won't be able to do this forever if they want to control major cities long-term.
My hope is that the Russian people will decide to cut the head off of the snake and depose Putin before it gets even more out of control for all parties involved. Americans are plenty patriotic and war-hungry, but we also tire quickly of any kind of occupation, even when we are comfortably home enjoying our various comforts. The Russians won't have it that good. They'll be enduring major economic hardship and open-ended death to their family members being fed into the military machine for a very long time as this plays out. I hope they decide they've had enough before things spiral even more out of control.
