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(Hypothetical) Who Would You Take at 31 in This Scenario?
#10
The first thing I'd do is try to trade down.

If I couldn't then my list would be:
1. Arnold Ebiketie
2. Kyler Gordon
3. David Ojabo
4. Lewis Cine
5. Logan Hall

I think a lot of people are sleeping on Arnold E. He is a little small at 6'2" 250 lb, but he has long arms (34 1/8"), great speed (4.66 40 yard dash) and elite athleticism.

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21077

He had 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 2021.

31 may be a tad too high for him considering his size, but I think he would add significant juice to our pass rush and, along with Joseph Ossai, should make our defense even more dangerous.

Gordon would be my second choice, although his 40 time (4.52) does scare me. What also scares me is he sat on that 40 time at his pro day, meaning he didn't think he'd be able to beat it. So is he actually even slower than that?

Historically, the Bengals have not shied away from 4.5 CBs, as Dennard and Kirkpatrick both ran a 4.51. Leon Hall ran a 4.42, but most people were surprised by that because they expected him to run in the 4.5s as well.

The good news with Gordon is he has elite athleticism in pretty much every other category. He has an RAS of 9.69, with an elite vertical jump, broad jump, bench press, shuttle and 3 cone drill. His speed splits are merely "good" though.

I think we could probably get either of these players with a trade down, but if we do trade down and both of them are picked up early in the 2nd, I also like Ojabo, Cine and Hall. The lowest I'd be willing to trade down to is about 40 though. Net us an early 3rd round pick and still get a quality player. Trading below 40 risks us having to dig even deeper into our draft chart and I don't want to do that. I still want a day 1 starter with our first pick and past 40, CB contributions go way down, https://theathletic.com/3237194/2022/04/08/bengals-nfl-draft-cornerback/

Quote:But what are the odds a player picked in each of those first three slots for the Bengals could play at a level equal to or better than Apple did last year?

We use a minimum of 500 outside corner snaps to determine the qualifiers over the last three draft classes. Here are the results:



PLAYER                TEAM YEAR DRAFTED PFF GRADE

Cameron Dantzler Vikings 2020 89               70.9

Greg Newsome II Browns 2021 26               68.1
Patrick Surtain II Broncos 2021 9                 66.1
Eric Stokes Packers 2021 29                        65.5
Rock Ya-Sin Colts 2019 34                           65.3
Tyson Campbell Jaguars 2021 33                 62.7
Trevon Diggs Cowboys 2020 51                   62.7
Trayvon Mullen Raiders 2019 40                  62.5
A.J. Terrell Falcons 2020 16                        60.8
Paulson Adebo Saints 2021 76                    60.3
Nik Needham Dolphins 2019 UFA                59.9
Asante Samuel Jr. Chargers 2021 47           56.4
Jaylon Johnson Bears 2020 50                   54.9
Greedy Williams Browns 2019 46               54.6
Michael Ojemudia Broncos 2020 77            48.7
Marco Wilson Cardinals 2021 136               48.6
DeAndre Baker Giants 2019 30                  48.4
Byron Murphy Cardinals 2019 33               48.3
Brandin Echols Jets 2021 201                   45



The cut-off shows up at the 40th pick. Of those picked in the top 40, only two of the nine qualifiers played well below average. Six of the 10 qualifiers picked after that were well below average. Only Cameron Dantzler and Trevon Diggs enjoyed successful rookie seasons.

For those curious, Lewis Cine has a nearly perfect RAS (9.92):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21650
David Ojabo (9.39):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21419
Logan Hall (9.39):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21074

Athletic scores aren't everything, but when they're paired with great or elite production, as is the case with Arnold E, Ojabo, Gordon and Cine, you have a really good prospect profile.

Hall is a bit of a wild card, as he requires a lot more projection, but you don't often see defensive tackles move that well, even if he is undersized (283 lbs). I think he's just a little overshadowed because Both Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis happened to be even more elite athletic profiles at DT in the same draft class haha.
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RE: (Hypothetical) Who Would You Take at 31 in This Scenario? - CJD - 04-09-2022, 02:18 PM

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