Why the **** is Jessie Bates not signed yet?

[CJD]

(05-21-2022, 12:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What did we offer him?

We don't know what the Bengals are offering or what Bates is asking. We can only speculate.


Historically, the Bengals have tried to undervalue free agents at positions they don't find to be premium.


Kevin Zeitler, Joe Thuney and Andrew Whitworth (or people close to them) all came out saying that the Bengals' offers to them were considerably lower than other teams' offers and that all three had some inclination to come to Cincinnati had they been offered similar contracts to the market.


Considering guard (and aging OT) and safety are on the lower end of the "value charts" for many teams, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals were approaching Bates in a similar fashion.

We also have a tendency to not offer as much guaranteed money as other teams. This may be due to Mike Brown not being as wealthy and liquid as other owners since he made his money exclusively through football (where as many other owners like the Browns' Jimmy Haslam made his fortune via a truck stop chain and a petroleum corporation) so he may not be able to put down the guaranteed money that other owners can (when you put guaranteed money on a contract, that money must go into escrow at the time of signing, not when it's due to the player). 

The Bengals, historically, stay around 35% of the contract guaranteed or less.



Trey Hendrickson got 16/60 (27%), DJ Reader 20.5/53 (39%), Joe Mixon 10/40 (25%), BJ Hill 13/40 (32.5%), Cappa 11/35 (31%), Awuzie 7.5/22 (34%), Hubbard 10/40 (25%), Waynes 15/42 (36%).



Going back further, Dalton 17/96 (18%), Green 33/60 (55%), Palmer 19/97 (20%).


Unless I'm forgetting any big names, it seems we've only given >50% guaranteed a single time, with Green. Many are in the 25 to 35% range. The recent safety contracts are in the 40 to 70% range.


My guess is that Jessie Bates is pursuing a contract at least similar to Marcus Williams' deal with the Ravens, which was 5 years, 70 million with 37 million of it guaranteed. 

And it wouldn't surprise me if the Bengals are angling for closer to what Tyrann Mathieu or Justin Reid got (3yr/28.3 M/18M guaranteed and 3/31.5/20.5, respectively).

Hopefully, they'll land somewhere in between like John Johnson's contract with Cleveland (3/33.75/24), maybe with a little more AAV and a little less guaranteed, something like 3/39/15.

I don't think Bates will go for that kind of deal, but maybe we get lucky.


When it comes to "who to blame" I lean more towards the Bengals than Bates since we are unlike most other NFL teams when it comes to guarantees, but I think what Bates may not be considering is that, while the Bengals don't do well with literal guarantees, they are pretty good about giving "practical" guarantees. Look at Tray Waynes. Only 15 million was guaranteed, but the Bengals kept him for 2 years for doing nothing at all, meaning his actual guarantee was 30.8 million, which would be 73%... I wish Bates' agent would realize this and advise his client appropriately. Because at least the first two years of any deal Bates signs are guaranteed. And the only way they'd cut him at that point is if he had a catastrophic implosion or is injured for both years.


There have been a few anomalies like Preston Brown, but there are many more examples where a player is kept too long rather than not long enough.


We'll see how things play out. I take solace in knowing that we drafted safety in the draft so, if absolutely nothing can be done and Bates does hold out/sit out the season, we aren't bereft at the position. I don't think he'd ultimately do that though. My expectation is that Bates will play on the tag this year and will likely leave in free agency in 2023, especially since he will not be a priority signing in next year's off season, as both Burrow and Higgins are eligible for extensions at that point.