05-01-2022, 08:11 PM
(05-01-2022, 07:50 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I think the reason they focused this draft on defense, and why I suspect we may be looking at primarily defensive drafts for the next few years, is because I believe (and am hopeful) that the coaching staff and front office intend to keep Burrow, Chase and Higgins together for their entire careers, or at least their prime years. We've already seen what has happened to the WR market this off season. We went from 3 wide receivers contracts with an AAV of 20M or more (Hopkins, Allen, Cooper) to a whopping 9 (Hill, Adams, Hopkins, Diggs, Moore, Allen, Godwin, Cooper, Williams) with many more entering the 15M+ range as well, including some arguably overpaid receivers like Golladay, Kirk, Woods, Thomas, Cooks, Robinson and Sutton.
If those players are worth 20 or 15M+ dollars, I would think that Higgins would be worth AT LEAST 20 to 25M next off season. I would also hazard a guess that, as the salary cap continues to grow, Chase will cost 30M to 35M per year by 2024. And Burrow? I am betting by the time we extend him in 2023, he'll cost us at least 50M per year, if not more.
So, if they intend to keep these 3 players let's say they do some cap magic or maybe get one of them (or perhaps all of them) to take a hometown discount to keep the band together, let's say those 3 players cost us 100M per year in cap space.
Safety is already one of the least valued positions in the NFL, as evidenced by the steep drop off in franchise tag prices from OL to S (Safety is 4th lowest at 12.91M per year, above only RB, TE and K. OL is priced at 16.66M). So, given the emphasis on offense coming in the next few years' extensions, as well as the requirement to eventually re-sign other defensive players like Logan Wilson, Chidobe Awuzie and DJ Reader in the next 2 seasons, would it be better to re-sign Bates for what he wants (presumably, he wants top market money, which would be 16 to 18 million dollars per year, if not 20M by the time next off season rolls around) but lose one of our other young stars? Or should we try to replace the lower value positions in the draft and sign the more "cornerstone" type players to long term deals?
Case in point, if signing Bates meant letting Higgins walk, I say no. I'd rather keep Higgins than Bates. If that's the choice that our front office is being faced with, I'm glad they are taking steps towards allowing Bates to leave in order to keep our offensive core together.
I get what your saying and maybe that is the situation. I like Bates and would want to keep him but not at a price that will handcuff us going forward. I'm fine drafting his potential replacement and certainly the way the draft fell. But drafting 2 safeties I would probably rather of let him walk and used that money to sign Tretter to a couple year deal. But I guess you don't know how the draft is gonna shake out. Another reason I would've rather drafted a LB at some point is depth this year but also are we gonna be forced to choose between Pratt and Wilson. If so I'd go Wilson and maybe Pratt is cheap but if not you have the replacement.
On the note of offense and the receiver market. I don't think we resign Higgins. If his stats improve which I'm assuming they will continue to improve. He will be asking big money. After this last season I think the offense is gonna revolve around Burrow and Chase. Then just continue to add receivers thru the draft.
