Executives on the draft from The Athletic

[BoomerFan]

Quote:“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”

I'm not sure I buy that. Or at least not all instances of going for the outlier are the same. Linderbaum is likely to be worth the pick and isn't some Darrius Heyward-Bey type of reach (or John Ross for that matter). I will agree that Ravens get reviewed better for their draft than they probably deserved but ultimately that is meaningless anyways.

Consider taking AJ Green in the first and Andy Dalton in the 2nd. That isn't a typical way to build a team. It wasn't a reach but it was an "outlier" as far usual drafting strategies go.

I suppose it is tough to define what an outlier pick is. For instance, I'd say Mahomes was both an outlier pick and a reach but he absolutely paid off, of course.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings/_/year/2017
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-final-pff-draft-board-top-250-prospects-of-2017
https://www.nfl.com/news/mike-mayock-s-2017-nfl-draft-top-100-prospect-rankings-0ap3000000802568

A better example might be Russell Wilson getting picked mid-way through the 3rd. Or going way back to the 2006 draft, everyone was debating whether Vince Young or Reggie Bush should be taken first overall. The Houston Texans took Mario Williams who produced the most of the 3. I'd call that an outlier pick and it worked.