Take the freaking points

[KillerGoose]

(10-10-2022, 10:16 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: That's nice, for me, if you are on the road and not moving the ball at will and the game is tight, you take the points 99% of the time. Despite what the analytics say. Points is points, had we taken the 3 instead of going for it on 4th and 2. Tucker would have been removed from the equation at the end. it would have been TD or bust, and i'd take my chances with our D vs giving Tucker a shot at a 50 yarder. I like those analytics better than going for it.

That math broke down to this...

Go for it and succeed - 59% chance of winning
Go for it and fail - 31% chance of winning
Kick the FG - 41% chance of winning

Conversion probability - 46%

It's impossible to say that the FG here removes Tucker from the equation. You're assuming that the game goes the exact same way, and it probably wouldn't have. The 4th down decisions are always going to inherently be controversial. You'll have fans like you, who are very conservative in what they want to do. On the flip side, you have fans who are going to be aggressive in what they want to do.

Both sides are going to swear you're the dumbest bastard alive, regardless of the decision. Most fans are also completely ignorant to what they are talking about, but that's a different conversation. It's always easy to criticize with hindsight. If ZT took the FG and still lost, there's fans arguing the exact opposite of what you're doing now.