Take the freaking points

[Mike M (the other one)]

(10-10-2022, 10:25 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: That math broke down to this...

Go for it and succeed - 59% chance of winning
Go for it and fail - 31% chance of winning
Kick the FG - 41% chance of winning

Conversion probability - 46%

It's impossible to say that the FG here removes Tucker from the equation. You're assuming that the game goes the exact same way, and it probably wouldn't have. The 4th down decisions are always going to inherently be controversial. You'll have fans like you, who are very conservative in what they want to do. On the flip side, you have fans who are going to be aggressive in what they want to do.

Both sides are going to swear you're the dumbest bastard alive, regardless of the decision. Most fans are also completely ignorant to what they are talking about, but that's a different conversation. It's always easy to criticize with hindsight. If ZT took the FG and still lost, there's fans arguing the exact opposite of what you're doing now. 

Too many variables, maybe the game flows differently or not. , but doesn't seem to take into account that NEITHER OFFENSE was moving the ball well. I'd still rather force Tucker to make 2 FG's cause our D was doing a good chance at keeping them out of the EZ.

Again, on the road in a tight game, you take the points and the lead. Put the pressure on the other team. Don't let the momentum shift and get the crowd back into it. At home, you can get away with that, because the crowd will still have your back.

I love to see teams going for it, but only if necessary and we weren't at that point yet.