11-13-2022, 12:14 PM
(11-13-2022, 01:36 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Well, for the most part running against an incumbent is a bit of a waste of time. Now with Trump and Biden (possibly), running against an incumbent seems like a grand time to give it your best shot and unseat them. We are on a streak of vulnerable presidents, it seems.
If 2020 were won by a popular and younger democrat I'd expect DeSantis to declare that he's too focused on governing Florida to run for president at the moment. It takes some specific circumstances for a president to become a 1 termer. Biden doesn't meet as many criteria as Truman, Carter, and Trump (nor did George HW Bush), but he'd still be wise to hand things off for 2024.
I still remember how disappointed I was when Obama picked Biden to be his VP. He was a liability when he spoke and prone to screwing things up. He was also highly entrenched in the old guard that Obama was allegedly trying to change. 14 years later, Biden may have been the only reason anything got done in that administration. Obama wanted to lecture like the professor he was but had little interest in negotiating with his rivals. Biden had the experience and ties in the legislative branch to avoid some of the damage that came with that.
The problem with everything goes to one of your points. There just aren't enough young, viable candidates to displace the 80 year olds. It's a bad situation IMO. DeSantis could likely do it, but he's got a unique problem in his way in dealing with his base, which happens to also be the base of his soon-to-be main rival.
Politics screws with people's heads when they get in power, and Trump already had some things loose before he got into it. At the end of the day, even ancient leaders who have accomplished a great deal have trouble letting go in some cases. Ruth Ginsburg is the big one for me. If she steps down and lets Obama appoint a replacement as he requested, Roe may still be in place and the majority is much less lopsided. She just couldn't bear to give up the power, even in a dire health circumstance. Trump is the same, and Biden and Pelosi may be as well. Throw McConnell in that group, too. Even if replacement is good for the health of a party, it rarely takes precedence over ego and personal power and parties suffer for it.
