Trump Announces Presidential Bid for 2024

[Dill]

(11-19-2022, 11:17 AM)samhain Wrote: I'm not sure I completely agree with the bolded.  I definitely agree with the statement when it comes to the GOP base.  Actual legislators and donors may be a different story.  The narratives on conservative talk outlets certainly play a role, but the voices on those platforms are just the most available ones for consumption.  They aren't necessarily the ones that matter.

I'd say they play a decisive role. Hannity et al. were central in turning each of Trump's illegal actions as president into a "hoax"--the mirror image of what libs were accusing. E.g. by summer of 2020 it was the Dems and Fauci who weren't "following the science."  And now the 1/6 hearings, which cannot be directly refuted, can be disregarded as "partisan." 

At this conjuncture, they play a central mediating role between the base and the party leadership--the base being the most important variable of Trump power. 

(11-19-2022, 11:17 AM)samhain Wrote: Trump was the battering ram for many of the recent policy wins for the right, but they were largely executed by more sober and calculating players-of-the-game like McConnell and judge Thomas.  Mitch is IMO the main architect of the modern conservative movement, and he's arguably the most effective legislator in modern US history.  Trump was the face and voice of the party, but does anyone think this shift would have occurred without Mitch's persistence and gamesmanship?  

My point is, McConnell and the adults in the party like a good lib-owning as much as anyone, but they like power better.  They don't care for rhetorical power quite as much as actual legislative power.  If Trump gets in the way of the acquisition of that power, he will be dealt with IMO.  If he is viewed as potentially diminishing that power, he will be dealt with.  

I don't know if Mitch is really better than Tip O'neill or Nancy, but he is the most effective politician in the GOP at the moment. Low character, high skill. 

I'm not sure which shift you are referring to. Certainly McConnell engineered the SCOTUS imbalance we have. Trump has no skill at all in governing, knowing neither law nor Constitution. Still, the major "shift" in the GOP I see is almost wholly up to Trump, who displaced all the competent pols in the 2016 primary and turned the GOP away from traditional conservatism, turning the GOP into a regime party along the way.

So I disagree with the last bolded. Trump was "in the way" the moment he stepped on the debate stage. McConnell and McCarthy tried to get rid of him after 1/6, but got back on board quickly when they realized Trump still had the base. 

What will matter for the GOP over the next year is whether Trump can keep the base together. That, not Mitch, will determine who gets "dealt with."  The intense dislike all those Senators and Congressmen have for Trump (I'm sure the majority of they GOP in congress) will have to remain squelched if the base stays with Trump, because that is the only way they can keep their own power.

(11-19-2022, 11:17 AM)samhain Wrote: Anyone vs the liberals works in primaries, but national it's not quite as effective.  The party will have to win votes that aren't motivated by conspiracies or partisan grandstanding.  That's how Biden beats Trump.  That's how a red wave never materializes.  Even in a bad economy with a largely negative outlook among voters, they still didn't give power back to the authoritarian firebrands.  A lot of people are tired of hearing that shit, much as they are tired of the "woke" politics on the left.  

Dems have trouble reigning in the more extreme views in their party in national elections, and it's quite a balancing act.  It benefitted the right for a long time.  Now the right will have an internal conflict that mirrors the one on the left.  That, again is how Biden becomes the nominee and president.  He's old, vanilla, and not nearly as easy to peg as an extremist.  The right will need to find a way to keep it's extremists from gaining momentum and co-opting the party as Trump did.  If they don't, they will continue to underperform in national elections.

To the last bolded, I quite agree. But it's not up the leadership, really. If Trump does fizzle out in the coming months, it will be in part because the non-Maga GOP has increased to the point that the GOP vote is unstable and difficult to read. A lot of people are tired of the authoritarianism, as you say, but it's still unclear how many.  

MAGA voters are more dependent upon prompts from trusted authorities than are other voters, and those authorities are not really their Congressional leaders.  If their understanding of the current political conjuncture were correct, there'd have been a red wave. But there wasn't. 
At moments like that they are dangerously close to recognizing that Biden evil and incompetence are largely hype and Trump's competence and mastery of the national stage is an illusion outside the bubble, where the majority of voters still are. Right now they are calling in to Hannity and Kilmeade turning over interpretations and new frames for understanding Trump/GOP vulnerability at the moment. 


PS Dem extreme views are like "all renewable energy by 2030." Repub extreme views are like "Hang Biden, Pence and Pelosi, same day as the trial."  Different kinds of extreme altogether.