7/11 - always open

[Bengalbug]

(10-12-2023, 11:19 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals are 10-6 when Chase receives double digit targets. They are 9-9 when he doesn't. When Chase receives at least 10 targets, he averages eight catches for 122 yards and a TD. 

I did this looking at wins and losses. Chase averages 9.4 targets per game regardless of the wins or loss.. including playoffs.

In wins, he is averaging 6.65 catches for 96.46 yards and .85 TDs, or a TD on 13% of his receptions.

In losses, he is averaging 5.6 catches for 70.47 yards and .4 TDs, or a TD on 7% of his receptions.

That one catch different is worth 26 yards and .45 TDs.


As far as double digit targets go:

I just ran the numbers, using ESPN data, and I got 13-5 on double digit target games; again mine include playoffs, however most playoff games he didn’t get 10 targets.

I got 13-10 when he receives less than double digit targets. Jamar chase has also played in 41 games, including playoffs: 21 (21), 15 (22) and 5 (23).

When chase catches 7 balls, they are 14-3, average 12.2 targets per game
When less than 7 balls, they are 12-12, average 7.4 targets per game

When chase gets 100 yards, they are 10-3, average 11.8 targets per game
When less than 100 yards, they are 16-12, average 8.28 targets per game

When chase scores they are 15-5, average 10.3 targets per game
When chase doesnt they are 11-10, average 8.47 targets per game

12.2 targets is an 83% win percentage
11.8 targets is an 77% win percentage
10.3 targets is an 75% win percentage
8.47 targets is an 52% win percentage
8.28 targets is an 57% win percentage
7.40 targets is an 50% win percentage

Double digit targets to chase makes us a much better team, thus force feeding chase is a good thing.