12-06-2023, 08:10 PM
(12-06-2023, 07:33 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: This is a situation where I think you can't completely trust the stats. In the 4th qtr you can find yourselves in situations where you are trying to run out the clock or set up a field goal. The other team knows your running and are selling out to stop you.
Sure, this is definitely a thing. Even accounting for that, though, the data doesn't paint a picture of getting stronger as the game goes on. Here is full breakdown...
1st Quarter - 4.15 yards per carry
2nd Quarter - 4.21 yards per carry
3rd Quarter - 4.18 yards per carry
4th Quarter - 3.78 yards per carry
OT - 2.41 yards per carry
The picture it paints is Mixon staying roughly the same until the 4th quarter where his efficiency tanks. If you look at the league as a whole over the last 10 years, you see the following...
1st Quarter - 4.24 yards per carry
2nd Quarter - 4.27 yards per carry
3rd Quarter - 4.40 yards per carry
4th Quarter - 3.99 yards per carry
OT - 4.40 yards per carry
Some similarities. Both Mixon and the rest of the league lose substantial efficiency in the 4th, likely due to what you said. However, Mixon's YPC is slightly worse in the 3rd quarter in comparison to the rest of the league where there is a pretty sharp jump. The rest of the league also performs very well in OT where Mixon is at his worst. I don't put much stock into this, though, because he has so few OT carries.
The story always goes back to Mixon is not a dynamic runner. He doesn't have the toolset to generate yardage for himself. He isn't fast enough, quick enough, or strong enough to consistently break tackles. He is consistently towards the bottom of the league in breaking tackles. This translates to a pretty flat performance throughout the game. He gets you what the OL gives him.
