Reds get #2 overall pick in 2017 draft

[CJD]

I know this only means so much to some people but here are the scouting grades for the top 3 players that the Reds will almost certainly be choosing from, from 20 to 80, for each skill. 80: elite of the elite (Billy Hamilton speed is an 80, although if there were a 90, he'd likely be a 90). 70: well above average, 60: above average, 50: average, 40: below average, 30: well below average, 20: basically non existent:

Hunter Greene:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 65 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

Brendan McKay:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 60
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 60

Kyle Wright:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 60


So, as far as potential goes, McKay has approximately equivalent potential at either pitcher or position player whereas Greene degrades in value if you take him off the mound.

I think McKay is the right choice, personally. He's an extremely safe pick (he's basically the Senzel of this draft) in that he'll almost certainly improve your team in a few years. Whether that is at pitcher or position player is left to be determined by the team that drafts him, but he's got good potential at each position. I prefer him as a pitcher because he doesn't have great position flexibility and we already have Votto at 1B, but that's not a bad thing because he's got good command and 2 plus offerings right now that could develop further. Plus, being an NL team, him having a 60 bat will only help since he'll be in that number 9 spot.

Honestly, I still prefer Wright over Greene simply because he's above average in all 4 pitches with average command and is only a few years from the majors.

If we take Greene, yes, he could become an elite #1 pitcher in about 5 years, but there is a long history of high school right handers flaming out in the minors. ESPECIALLY hard throwing right handers. That is my major concern.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/06/06/mlb-draft-high-school-pitchers-velocity

Quote:Of the 92 high school pitchers taken in the first round from 2001 to '10, 32 of them never have pitched one game in the big leagues, a failure rate of 35%.

Another 16 of the high school first-round picks have produced a career WAR below 1.0, which means 48 of the 92 picks made no impact. In other words, teams have been more likely to get almost nothing from a first-round high school pitcher (52%) than anything meaningful.

• The numbers are even more disastrous as you get deeper into the first round. Of the 52 first-round picks taken 21 or higher, 20 never reached the big leagues and another 21 never reached a WAR of 1.0. That’s essentially no return on 79% of a decade’s worth of late first-round picks.

The reward, of course, is hitting on high school pitchers such as Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner and Rick Porcello. Those are the exceptions.

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In the most symbolic moment of this sea change, the Houston Astros took Stanford pitcher Mark Appel with the first pick of the 2013 draft, leaving San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant for the Cubs. Appel, who was traded to Philadelphia before the 2016 season, has never reached the majors and has a 5.20 ERA in five professional seasons. Bryant has won the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards and is a world champion.

Unfortunately, there really isn't a Kris Bryant in this draft class. The closest is probably Pavin Smith, but he doesn't have nearly the power that Bryant has. He has one of the best hit tools of the college (And perhaps high school) players, but he pairs it with bad legs and limited positional flexibility. And even then, his hit tool isn't as highly graded as McKay's is.
This is why I think McKay is the best pick. He pairs high potential at pitcher and is also, probably, the best overall bat in the draft.
And he's a college arm, so there's less risk that he flames out in the minors.
I dunno man, I just feel like we'd be fools to pass on McKay for Greene.