Best way for us to win next year-fix the running game

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-15-2017, 02:47 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I'll openly say that I am not the best at talent evaluation. I'm not a future scout like some people on this message board (not the OP, but people like Bfine and Wolf). 

It's so hard to determine when a good stat line in college is due to transcendent talent of the player, the talent level of the players around them (a big problem when evaluating Alabama players) or talent level of the players they are playing against.

I recently went back and watched a video of Jeremy Hill's best plays in college and he had a lot of punishing runs and break away runs that look very similar to Fournette's highlights today. Even looking at the stats, Jeremy Hill averaged 6.9 ypc in his sophomore year and Fournette has a 6.2 ypc career average (6.5 in his best year).

Now, I say highlights because this early on, I don't generally look at the play by plays for every game of most prospects, so I am only doing a top down look at these guys. So maybe, aside from the highlights, Fournette has more quality non-highlight snaps that make him a superior prospect to Jeremy, but they don't look all that different from a high level.

Dalvin Cook, I agree, is the better prospect between the two, but I don't know if he qualifies as a once every 5 year talent. That kind of evaluation I leave to the professionals. If he is truly a unique talent that will transform our offense, I would be fine with the pick. 

And your point about Rex is a good one. He came in and suddenly our running game is much better. That speaks very poorly of Jeremy. And I think he needs to be replaced anyway.

But Rex isn't a top 10 pick. If we can get a guy in the 3rd or 4th round that could replicate his kind of production in his limited play time, I think that would fix our running game as well, don't you think?

I was in Vegas for an annual meeting all last week.  I was looking for something for my 13 year old son (He was 11 in my Avatar, and now looks me in the eye).  It isn't as easy as it used to be....some simple lego, toy, shirt...just a little guilt gift for me being gone.  He is a swimmer and baseball player (like his dad...once Herbstreit hit puberty, it was over for me in football) and I will find a baseball shirt or something, but the gifts in the Vegas shops all bordered on too childish or too inappropriate.  

To the latter, there was a shirt with a chicken and an egg, in bed, smoking a cigarette...the chicken has turned to the egg and says:  "I think it was you".  I didn't buy it, but got a good chuckle.  

My point of this long-winded story?  Which came first, the chicken of the egg, or in this case, the RB or the offensive line.  You are dead on that another version of Rex is probably available in the later (3rd?) rounds vs. taking a RB with a top 10 pick.  There are so many positions where the player looks unstoppable against their college competition, but then against NFL talent, they bust.  RB seems to me to be a position where a rookie can not only make an immediate impact but if you are running through tackles, running away from NFL-speed players, and catching balls on NFL-style routes that you have a pretty good chance of success in the NFL.

I keep going back and forth on how much I like the DE class and how the Bengals can have an impact RDE for the first time in a while.   I have long said it is the missing piece of the puzzle on the front four.  A speed merchant that can get around a LT and force the QB in to the arms of a closing Dunalp and Geno.  And as badly as I want that for the defense, I keep coming back to the thought that this team needs to be able to score more points, in a number of different ways.  Atlanta put up 36 on a strong Seattle defense.  Atlanta's defense isn't that strong, but you can't score if you don't have the ball.  The Patriots had their issues with ball security early, but in the end, they put up 34 points on the Texans.

The reference I made about RDE being the missing piece on the front four is how I also feel about a stud RB on the offense.  They have the WRs, TEs, but not that special Pro Bowl talent at RB.  Dalvin Cook absolutely tore through a tough Michigan line....and ran away from some NFL talent, despite not having the offensive line of some of the better teams in college football.  

Fournette may be a very good NFL player as well, but I worry about mileage and it also falls back in to the old "this guy is in so it is a run, this guy is in so it is a pass" habit.  I want Cook, Gio, and Sexy to be a three-headed rotational monster that you can't predict plays by formation or personnel.  Throw to the RB on first down, run with another on second down...no predictability.  

You said "fix our running game", and I took that as "not make it suck"    I know you were probably thinking of a loftier goal, but I want a running game like Atlanta to pair with our other weapons.  I think Cook could have the same impact here that Freeman has had in Atlanta...and I now think the Falcons will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.