Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

(05-09-2018, 10:50 AM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]Well I suppose you should take it up with the folks that maintain such stats. 

No need to do that.  I know multiple ways to expand the pool of "starting QBs" to at least 32.

(05-09-2018, 12:23 PM)PhilHos Wrote: [ -> ]Because the link provided lists Andy as 10th. Even YOU said he was 10th according to the list.

Yes 10 of 24 puts him at about 41% (actually closer to 42% but I'm a homer and rounded down). Not sure what you are trying to argue here. Those numbers are facts and cannot be disputed. Of course one could make up criteria, but they would just be showing their bias.

(05-09-2018, 12:54 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]No need to do that.  I know multiple ways to expand the pool of "starting QBs" to at least 32.

But "you can't judge QBs on one year". Somebody around here keeps telling me that, but they insist there are 32 starting QBs every year. Rational folks know that you establish perimeters (not ones you maker up in your head but ones that have been established by those that maintain/track such data) and you rate against the qualifying pool.

I suppose you could make a pool of all red haired QBs and say Andy is the best in the world. 

(05-09-2018, 01:00 PM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ] Of course one could make up criteria, but they would just be showing their bias.

You are the one playing make believe when you claim there are only 24 starting QBs in the NFL.


I'll let you keep your claim that Dalton is "average" as long as you say "average among the top 24 starting QBs".

Deal?

(05-09-2018, 01:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]You are the one playing make believe when you claim there are only 24 starting QBs in the NFL.


I'll let you keep your claim that Dalton is "average" as long as you say "average among the top 24 starting QBs".

Deal?

I have never said there are 24 starting QBs in the NFL. I have and will say he's 10th of the 24 QB that qualify for career passer rating. And thanks for letting me "keep my claim", I was so afraid you were going to take it from me.

(05-09-2018, 01:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]I have and will say he's 10th of the 24 QB that qualify for career passer rating.

Good.  As long as you state it like that I have no problem.

Just don't try to claim he is average "among starting QBs".

(05-09-2018, 01:00 PM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]Yes 10 of 24 puts him at about 41% (actually closer to 42% but I'm a homer and rounded down). Not sure what you are trying to argue here. 

This is what I was "trying" to argue:

(05-08-2018, 06:57 PM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]According to the link provided Andy is 11th out of 24. Why do folks keep saying 10th?

Hence why I included it and ONLY it in my post. 

(05-09-2018, 01:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]I have and will say he's 10th of the 24 QB that qualify for career passer rating. 

Sounds like a really good, above-average QB to me.

(05-09-2018, 03:04 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: [ -> ]Some of you make absolutely no sense.  I find it laughable that you have such a tough time with average starting QB.  Do you realize that the entire world disagrees with you? If you want to deal with statistics only then let us go ahead and do it.

QBR ranking by year.

2017: 25th
2016: 20th
2015: 3rd
2014: 22nd
2013: 17th

So essentially he has been average to below average 4 out of 5 seasons.  Yes he played great in 2015 but according to "STATISTICS" he's been average to below average the other 4 years.

I know none of you want to hear this because you're on his jock, but deal with the FACTS.

Your using the dumbest and most biased stat in all of sports to make an argument?

(05-09-2018, 01:28 PM)PhilHos Wrote: [ -> ]Sounds like a really good, above-average QB to me.

You can consider top 42% really good if you want. I will consider it average. I am sure more on here will agree with it being really good

Well I think this has been beaten to death again.  So I will post the stats that I try to end with.  I think these say more About Dalton than any thing else.

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating over 125 than Dalton's 14 (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan)

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating under 60 than Dalton's 13.

When he is good he is better than a lot of people want to admit.  At his best he is among the very best.

But when he is bad he is total crap.

Dalton does not need to get a lot better.  He just needs to get more consistent.  Stop laying so many eggs.  A team can overcome a QB having a below average game (70's) but its tough when your QBs passer rating is in the 50's.

Dalton has a .646 win percentage with a rating over 60 (61-33-2) but only .153 (2-11) under 60.

(05-09-2018, 04:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]Well I think this has been beaten to death again.  So I will post the stats that I try to end with.  I think these say more About Dalton than any thing else.

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating over 125 than Dalton's 14 (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan)

Since Dalton arrived in 2011 only 4 QBs have more games with a passer rating under 60 than Dalton's 13.

When he is good he is better than a lot of people want to admit.  At his best he is among the very best.

But when he is bad he is total crap.

Dalton does not need to get a lot better.  He just needs to get more consistent.  Stop laying so many eggs.  A team can overcome a QB having a below average game (70's) but its tough when your QBs passer rating is in the 50's.

Dalton has a .646 win percentage with a rating over 60 (61-33-2) but only .153 (2-11) under 60.

This is exactly right.  As you note....his highs are really good, his lows can be really low.  If he can manage to have a few good games sprinkled in with some decent games and no bad ones.....the team, and him, can go far.  It's really that simple.  Consistency is the key.

(05-09-2018, 04:50 PM)Wyche Wrote: [ -> ]This is exactly right.  As you note....his highs are really good, his lows can be really low.  If he can manage to have a few good games sprinkled in with some decent games and no bad ones.....the team, and him, can go far.  It's really that simple.  Consistency is the key.

In the last decade only 5 QBs have had a season with multiple sub 30 passer rating games.  Dalton was one of those last year when he posted a 28.4 in the opener against the Ravens and a 27.3 against the Vikings.  In his other 14 starts he put up a 94.6 rating which would have been 11th in the league.

That should not happen.  A guy who is good enough to be close to the top 10 for 14 of his starts should not post 2 games with a sub 30 rating.

Here are the passer ratings for the other 4 QBs in the last decade to have had more than one sub 30 passing game in a season

Mark Sanchez '09.......63.0
Geno Smith '13..........66.5
Matt Cassell '09..........69.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick '16....69.6
Dalton '17..................86.6


Totally OT trivia question.  Over the last 20 years Michael Vick has the second most sub 30 games with 5.  Four other QBs are right behind him with 4, but the guy with the most has twice as many (10) as Vick.  He was a starter every season of his ten year career going to the playoffs four times and the Pro Bowl once.

(05-09-2018, 08:13 AM)PDub80 Wrote: [ -> ]You didn't directly answer the question.

Also, was last year Andy's first year playing? Why are you grandstanding on it like there aren't 6 other seasons where he's been basically the same guy.

I'm not as enamoured with the 2015 8 game stretch. He crashed back to reality against the Texans on Thurs Night Football. Dude played lights out for an 8 game stretch 3 years ago. Didn't show that before.... Hasn't shown it since. Lets all remember how he broke his thing: making a tackle after an awful throw for an INT at home against Pittsburgh.

So, I'll ask it again for BFine..... Is Andy a tractor or a wagon?

Hint: He is not the tractor.

- I'll 100% give you this, and I think most would agree.... The tractor on the Bengals is Marvin. The players aren't allowed to be in charge or do their thing or play "their game".

That's my one saving hope for Andy. Is that he breaks out of this Marvin shell and lets loose. I think he would be better off playing fast and free and NOT under Marvin's thumb. But that's on Andy as a leader and as a professional to do that. Until then, he's part of the problem.

Yes I did. I gave a lengthy and nuanced answer. No QB is truly a tractor or a wagon. They all need help. The good ones can make their teammates a bit better, but they can't create blocking or a run game...and those are things every QB needs to be truly successful. 

As for the "8 game stretch" - he played 12 full games that year and only had one game with a rating below 95.9. 

I don't form my opinion on Dalton solely on that season though. 

- I look at 2012, when he posted 31 total TD's and had the 13th best passer rating.
- I look at 2013, when he broke Bengals records for yards (4293) and passing TDs (33) with 35 total.
- I look at 2014, when despite poor overall season numbers (due to the 2.0 game and a flu game), he led the team to a sweep of the Ravens and a 3-1-1 record without AJ Green.
- I look at 2016, when he went for 4000 and a 91.8 rating despite getting battered. 
- I look at the 63-44-2 record as starter.
- I look at 4 seasons where he was 15th in passer rating or better (always among 35-40+ passers, not 32 as people mistakenly assume)
- I look at his career rating being among the better in the league, regardless of how you want to slice it up.
- I look at his low fumble/turnover rate.
- I look at his impressive deep ball numbers. 
- I look at how he turned around his own prime-time performance, but we're still losing.
- I look at how 3 other QB's have all been terrible in their playoff games and come away feeling Dalton (like so many others) has been wasted.

(05-09-2018, 05:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]In the last decade only 5 QBs have had a season with multiple sub 30 passer rating games.  Dalton was one of those last year when he posted a 28.4 in the opener against the Ravens and a 27.3 against the Vikings.  In his other 14 starts he put up a 94.6 rating which would have been 11th in the league.

That should not happen.  A guy who is good enough to be close to the top 10 for 14 of his starts should not post 2 games with a sub 30 rating.

Here are the passer ratings for the other 4 QBs in the last decade to have had more than one sub 30 passing game in a season

Mark Sanchez '09.......63.0
Geno Smith '13..........66.5
Matt Cassell '09..........69.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick '16....69.6
Dalton '17..................86.6


Totally OT trivia question.  Over the last 20 years Michael Vick has the second most sub 30 games with 5.  Four other QBs are right behind him with 4, but the guy with the most has twice as many (10) as Vick.  He was a starter every season of his ten year career going to the playoffs four times and the Pro Bowl once.

Jake Plummer? He had a brief career (retired on top of his game), made the playoffs a few times with the Broncos. Had some ugly years on a Cardinals team devoid of talent, so plenty of chances for ugly games. 

I was initially going to say Jay Cutler, but I'm pretty sure it's Plummer.

(05-09-2018, 06:02 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: [ -> ]Jake Plummer? He had a brief career (retired on top of his game), made the playoffs a few times with the Broncos. Had some ugly years on a Cardinals team devoid of talent, so plenty of chances for ugly games. 

I was initially going to say Jay Cutler, but I'm pretty sure it's Plummer.

Yep.  Plummer.

(05-09-2018, 03:49 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: [ -> ]Your using the dumbest and most biased stat in all of sports to make an argument?

Ahh, I see. So when statistics show that Dalton isn't as good as you guys think the stat is then bias and dumb!!

(05-10-2018, 02:08 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: [ -> ]Ahh, I see. So when statistics show that Dalton isn't as good as you guys think the stat is then bias and dumb!!

 Every other stat would suggest he is a top half QB over his career except for one and that is QBR. Also I would say the biggest example of how stupid the QBR stat is when you look at Jared Goff  past season. He had a top 5 QB rating, a 6 DVOA, and a 6th DYAR. 3 stats that would suggest top 10 but yet they have him with a QBR of 18th how in the blue hell is that logical?

Some examples of QBR silliness:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/10/espns-qbr-ranks-ryan-fitzpatrick-ahead-of-tom-brady/

http://awfulannouncing.com/2011-articles/espns-new-qbr-stat-isnt-perfect-after-all.html

And lest we forget QBR also told us Terrelle Pryor was a better QB than Drew Brees...

Since you guys hate the QBR because it makes Andy Dalton look bad I decided to go with QB rating. Again he was average to below average every season with the exception of 2015 the last 5 seasons.

2013-15th
2014-25th
2015-2nd 12 games only
2016-17th
2017-17th

Essentially, if you take out a 10 game stretch in 2015, many can conclude that he has been an average to below average QB based upon even the rating systems such as QBR and QB rating. If you include the 10 game stretch which you should, it leads almost everyone to believe that he's been average.

You want to argue go right ahead......but facts are facts.

Now can anyone in their right mind answer this question for me objectively. Why is it that almost everybody in the world rates Andy Dalton at the "Average" level outside of Cincinnati? Is it because everyone hates Andy Dalton? Is it because the Bengals are in a small market team? Hmm....but then why do players like Atkins and AJ Green get the earned recognition? Again, some of you are not being objective when it comes to Andy Dalton......it is what it is.