Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

(09-18-2018, 08:07 AM)Sled21 Wrote: [ -> ]But the one play was part of the entire course of the game......

If you're trying to analyze performance you take out outliers. Data analysis 101.

(09-18-2018, 11:55 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: [ -> ]If you're trying to analyze performance you take out outliers. Data analysis 101.

Gio scored that TD on the first play of the Bengals' 2nd drive.  Logically, that is going to force the defense to key more on him the rest of the day and reduce his measurable statistics.  So, he gets his stats nicked because of the added attention from the play, but doesn't receive credit for the play itself?

The removal of outliers works fine in a controlled environment in which human error is the likely cause.  In real world statistical analysis, it can lead to data manipulation to arrive at a desired outcome.  

(09-17-2018, 06:06 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: [ -> ]OO Freddy thats a 6.2 yards per touch!!!

What you forgot to mention was that Gio had an 89 yard TD in the game.

Take out the outlier, so, more like 48 rushing and 20 recieving on 21 touches... or 3.2 yards per touch.

Still, regardless, I think Gio will be decent in this game.

Go through every HOF RBs stats, take out their longest run every game because it's an "outlier", and I guarantee they no longer look like a HOF RB. 

Yes,

The Panthers on Sunday and then the Falcons the week after that are a big test. It would be very good if the Bengals won at least one of the games in whatever way they can.

(09-17-2018, 02:30 PM)RASCAL Wrote: [ -> ]Our run game will be horrible i think because of the injury to Mixon. Bernard is not the back to take a beating or deliver one. I hope he can but I believe we will become 1 dimensional and I, if I were a betting man, think our passing weapons can get it done. The best way to beat carolina is to keep their O on the sidelines most of the game!!!

Never know.. We might just see a good dose of Tre Carson and he might finally make a name for himself although my gut reaction is that he'll be used sparingly and run to the line of scrimage only to be tackled behind the line. 
I'd absolutely love to see him come out and run over their D line a few times to open up the passing game. I don't necessarily expect that to happen though   

(09-18-2018, 12:47 PM)Sweetness Wrote: [ -> ]Go through every HOF RBs stats, take out their longest run every game because it's an "outlier", and I guarantee they no longer look like a HOF RB. 

I agree, never understood that argument? So is the RB supposed to just fall down after he gets past the LoS? 

(09-18-2018, 12:49 PM)WiregrassBenGal Wrote: [ -> ]Yes,

The Panthers on Sunday and then the Falcons the week after that are a big test. It would be very good if the Bengals won at least one of the games in whatever way they can.

Winning both games would be better although I'm not going to bet my long lost fortune on that outcome.  

Right before the game they'll announce, "This is a test of the emergency running back system. This is only a test . In the event of an actual emergency you would have been instructed to watch something else. " lol

(09-17-2018, 10:12 AM)t3r3e3 Wrote: [ -> ]We all know how the Bengals have fared covering backs and TE’s over the past, well, forever.  Enter Christian McCaffrey and thankfully, an Olson-less Panthers.  The guy from Indiana replacing Olson is athletic as he11 though.  Linebackers will have to play well this week to win.

I think we will be alright as long as we don't let Cam escape the pocket and make sure we keep McCaffrey contained.

We can beat these guys deep on Offense with the speed of Ross and Green.

Keep them honest with underneath passes to Gio. I wouldn't say MAJOR challenge, these guys are not playing great right now.

They just lost to the Falcons who i found to be pretty bad against the Eagles who just lost to the Bucs.

Going into the season i thought these teams would be much better than they look right now and we would be worse.

I have been pleasantly surprised and we are just getting better...

(09-18-2018, 11:55 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: [ -> ]If you're trying to analyze performance you take out outliers. Data analysis 101.

No you don't.  Less information means less reliability.

You obviously never took data analysis 101.  If the circumstances of the run were an outlier (like defense only had 10 men on field) then you exclude it.  Other wise it s wrong.

Basically you are saying that a RB who had 60 yards on 20 three yard runs is better than a RB who had 59 yards on 20 carries then had a 60 yard run.  That type of analysis is absurd.

(09-18-2018, 01:09 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: [ -> ]I think we will be alright as long as we don't let Cam escape the pocket and make sure we keep McCaffrey contained.

We can beat these guys deep on Offense with the speed of Ross and Green.

Keep them honest with underneath passes to Gio. I wouldn't say MAJOR challenge, these guys are not playing great right now.

They just lost to the Falcons who i found to be pretty bad against the Eagles who just lost to the Bucs.

Going into the season i thought these teams would be much better than they look right now and we would be worse.

I have been pleasantly surprised and we are just getting better...

Agree,

They beat the Cowboys in week one but the Browns coulda beat the Cowboys in week one, their offense was awful !

Newton is their leading rusher and McCaffery their leading receiver and thebulk of his stuff is underneath. If our D will stop the soft coverage and trust our CB's against them one o one we can win.

(09-18-2018, 01:31 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: [ -> ]Agree,

They beat the Cowboys in week one but the Browns coulda beat the Cowboys in week one, their offense was awful !

Newton is their leading rusher and McCaffery their leading receiver and thebulk of his stuff is underneath. If our D will stop the soft coverage and trust our CB's against them one o one we can win.

True, i just think it will come down to how good we tackle. We tackle well, block well we win this game.

(09-18-2018, 01:44 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: [ -> ]True, i just think it will come down to how good we tackle. We tackle well, block well we win this game.

So far, we've tackled pretty well.  Lets hope we keep that up, and the offense keeps clicking.  I think both of those things will happen, but you just never know on the road against an opponent you don't play very often.

Before the season I thought this game would likely be a loss. But circumstances are changing my mind. CAR has a beat up O line, and no WR that should really scare us...Funchess is their current number 1. Outside of newton scrambling and McCaffrey taking screens and dump passes, they have a limited offense. I think they are very beatable right now. If we could pull this game out, we would end the first quarter 3-1 at worst. That's a great start with 3 of the first 4 having been on the road.

(09-18-2018, 01:44 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: [ -> ]True, i just think it will come down to how good we tackle. We tackle well, block well we win this game.

Agree have to limit the YAC

(09-18-2018, 04:40 PM)Beaker Wrote: [ -> ]Before the season I thought this game would likely be a loss. But circumstances are changing my mind. CAR has a beat up O line, and no WR that should really scare us...Funchess is their current number 1. Outside of newton scrambling and McCaffrey taking screens and dump passes, they have a limited offense. I think they are very beatable right now. If we could pull this game out, we would end the first quarter 3-1 at worst. That's a great start with 3 of the first 4 having been on the road.

Well - if they beat Carolina, there's no reason why the Atl shouldn't fall too.  Atl isn't the same team that went to the NFC ship last year.

(09-18-2018, 02:32 PM)Wyche Wrote: [ -> ]So far, we've tackled pretty well.  Lets hope we keep that up, and the offense keeps clicking.  I think both of those things will happen, but you just never know on the road against an opponent you don't play very often.

I think the last time we played Carolina they were a much better team and we tied.

So i think we win this one, we are a much better team than we were then.

(09-18-2018, 04:40 PM)Beaker Wrote: [ -> ]Before the season I thought this game would likely be a loss. But circumstances are changing my mind. CAR has a beat up O line, and no WR that should really scare us...Funchess is their current number 1. Outside of newton scrambling and McCaffrey taking screens and dump passes, they have a limited offense. I think they are very beatable right now. If we could pull this game out, we would end the first quarter 3-1 at worst. That's a great start with 3 of the first 4 having been on the road.

Agreed, i thought this would be a major challenge before the season, but just looking at the 2 teams right now
i think we clearly have the advantage. We will see, just have not been impressed with Carolina so far and like you
said, their O-line is banged up, especially the Tackle position and we have some damn good Ends.

(09-17-2018, 12:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]Newton absolutely killed us running the ball last time we played.  He had over 100 yards and converted a bunch of third downs.  Nothing fancy, but they had some sort of play that worked against our defensive scheme.  I think he even had a rushing td or two.

I remember that game & yes Cam ran a simple option play like 12 times
 & every time they ran it,  he'd pick up 8-9-10 yards.....
very aggravating.....

imo, in this game Sunday, Dalton will have huge passing yards.....
will pick their "D" apart….
Boyd & Eifert over the middle all day....
A.J. & Ross on the outsides....
& mix in some runs, screens & draws...
how about 3 weeks in a row....34-23

(09-18-2018, 02:32 PM)Wyche Wrote: [ -> ]So far, we've tackled pretty well.  Lets hope we keep that up, and the offense keeps clicking.  I think both of those things will happen, but you just never know on the road against an opponent you don't play very often.

I thought our tackling has been stellar this year, all the way up until the Baltimore game, where I think it regressed. Saw more guys bounce off and not wrap up in that one game than I have all season.

(09-19-2018, 08:19 AM)Sled21 Wrote: [ -> ]I thought our tackling has been stellar this year, all the way up until the Baltimore game, where I think it regressed. Saw more guys bounce off and not wrap up in that one game than I have all season.

Definitely more missed than at Indy.....but I think it's still an improvement over the last couple years.  Our tackling has been good as you noted.

We have to contain Cam and keep him in the pocket. Lawson and Dunlap can't be over aggressive in this game. Also they have to figure out a way to cover Mcaffery out of the back field and limit is yac.