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Hopefully Jonah’s injury from this past season doesnt hinder his 2020 at all. Im not expecting greatness out of him immediately. I think this team gets 6 wins

On paper, yes

Myself and several others have posted a couple times now in different threads that we're not so much setting a number of wins as a measure of success.

I don't expect this team to hit the ground running, firing on all cylinders, however you want to put it ? Lots of new faces coupled with young relatively inexperienced coaching staff isn't a recipe for instant success. Then when you throw in shortened/altered preseason, ummm odds are just against it.

This team started the downhill slide midway thru 2015 and hasn't recovered since ! In other words there's a lot of work to do to pull this thing together. There's probably gonna be somewhere between 6-10 new starters and several others getting significant snaps in a new system.

Having said all of that I don't think a decent to even very good season is out of the question ? But still I'm more interested in seeing a team coming together, a team that looks like they belong, a team gaining cohesion and chemistry, a team that doesn't look overwhelmed, a team that's "in it".

More so than I am seeing X number of wins. Does that mean 3-13/14 is good ? NO But I want to "see" success in sustained drives, scoring in the red zone, forcing turnovers, getting off the field on 3rd down, not letting our defensive middle get roasted, not allowing outside runs embarrassing us regularly...….. more than I do any measuring stick of wins.

Really hope OP is right on the 11-12 wins! I'm much of more a Debbie Downer in contrast. I think like 7 wins is far more reasonable, and I would be pretty happy with that too. I know teams turn it around really quickly these days, but I think 7-9/8-8 is more around where our peak is likely to be. I'm very optimistic with the team we're building long-term though.

(05-04-2020, 08:57 PM)Trademark Wrote: [ -> ]With all the free agency additions and the draft that the team had this is seriously a stacked team. I’m honestly excited and expecting 11-12 wins

Likely not winning that many in this Division. The AFC North, top to bottom, might be the strongest division in the NFL. The o-line alone is reason enough to expect somewhere closer to 6-9 wins. This team is 1-2 injuries away from fielding a bottom 3 line grouping in a division with plenty of pass rushers. For that matter, even with the new additions we really don’t know if this line will be decent. A lot of the end of year “improvement” was against the weakest portion of the schedule, so it’s fair to be skeptical of the improvement and the small sample size. The line still needs upgrades at G, T, and more depth. The TE group is also weak.

On defense, the team still has some coverage concerns in the secondary. Bell is more of an in the box run support guy, and Tre Waynes has middling coverage ability. I did like the Alexander signing. It still remains to see how well the back end of the defense plays this year. For all these reasons, and given the division, 6-8 wins seems most likely, with the possibility of 1 win more or less depending how things break.

(05-04-2020, 09:36 PM)QueenCity Wrote: [ -> ]People really need to realize this team should of been way better than 2-14 last year.

1. If we were healthy.
2. Bengals didn't play Finley for a few games
3. Hell we were in on 6 or some games within 1 score with a deflated somewhat unmotivated squad

Now what did we do in the off season

1. Free agents revamp the run defense
2. Joe Burrow

A lot of those 1 score games that we lost were simply us scoring with no time left cutting it to one score. I just think saying we were in so many close games that cuz they were one score is a little misleading.

(05-04-2020, 08:57 PM)Trademark Wrote: [ -> ]With all the free agency additions and the draft that the team had this is seriously a stacked team. I’m honestly excited and expecting 11-12 wins

Just ignore the bloodbath this is sure to unleash.  There is nothing wrong with optimism.  Hell, we need a lot more of it in this world.  The team, on paper, has no glaring "holes' any more.  People will point to the offensive line, but it IS fair to act as though the Bengals got another 1st round pick this year because Williams is coming back.  That is a massive upgrade over the Andre Smith/John Jerry revolving door we had most of last year.
We have talked ad nauseam about Michael Jordan's improvement after coming back from injury.  Hopkins in his second year as a starting center, who took the job from a first round pick and never looked back.  They brought in a guy they like in Xavier Sua-Filo, and drafted Akeem Adeniji to seemingly compete with him for the RG position.  They released the underwhelming John Miller.  They brought in Fred Johnson, who might be a real find, and he will push Hart for the starting job at RT.

You can be skeptical and call that line full of "ifs", but it is as though people forget that many other teams don't improve their lines, but they lose talent and have to replace them.  The Bengals have seemingly upgraded two of the offensive line spots (LT and RG) and have a guy in their second consecutive year under this coaching staff at the other positions that ALL showed improvement last year.  

The rest of the roster....I can't believe more people don't see it:  Loaded at WR.  A serious front seven now.  A back end of the defense that can tackle on the perimeter and make plays in the air.  

I could see it taking a few games for the offense to really hit its stride.  The defense could be really, really good from week one and if they can keep the Bengals in games early on, it could get very interesting down the stretch as the offense starts to click.  I am more excited about this team than I think I have been in any time, including the drafting of Carson Palmer.  

(05-04-2020, 09:36 PM)QueenCity Wrote: [ -> ]People really need to realize this team should of been way better than 2-14 last year.  

1. If we were healthy.
2. Bengals didn't play Finley for a few games
3. Hell we were in on 6 or some games within 1 score with a deflated somewhat unmotivated squad

Now what did we do in the off season

1. Free agents revamp the run defense
2. Joe Burrow

Excellent points.  We remember the mid-season tank job after the 49ers destroyed any mojo we had after the Seattle game.  Turns out that SF team was pretty damn good.  In fact, playing the NFC West was a tough draw entirely, as Murray really transformed a hapless Cardinal team from 2018 (Hey, if he can do it).

The outside the division opponents are Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Titans, and Chargers at home.  Texans, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, and Dolphins are on the road.

Say, the Bengals split with the division in some fashion.  Maybe they sweep pitt, and get swept by Baltimore, or simply take one from each team.  That is three wins.  I think the Jags, Giants, and Chargers will be very beatable at home. Two second year QBs and one rookie.  On the road, I think at the very least they could take the Redskins and Dolphins.  You could certainly argue about what kind of team the Texans will be without DeAndre Hopkins and who knows what to expect out of Phillip Rivers in Indy.  But just take the Redskins and Dolphins as wins.  That gives the Bengals 8 wins.  It could just as easily be 10 wins (or 6).  

People need to let go of 2-14.  It happened, and thank God it did.  It was finally enough for dramatic change and we have the a QB coming off the highest-rated single season in college football.  These are exciting times.  

(05-04-2020, 09:59 PM)Big Boss Wrote: [ -> ]I think their floor is 6 wins and their ceiling is 9.

I'm not so quick to point out the 2011 success story because despite all his faults, Marvin was a solid, proven coach.  Jury is still out on this coaching staff.

Marvin wasn't such a good coach when he didn't have outstanding coordinators like Gruden and Zimmer...just saying.  They deserve a lot of the credit. 

(05-05-2020, 10:25 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: [ -> ]Marvin wasn't such a good coach when he didn't have outstanding coordinators like Gruden and Zimmer...just saying.  They deserve a lot of the credit. 

Tbf Marvin turned this franchise around long before those two got here.

On paper this is a talented team. There’s a lot of cause for concern though. Some concerns are the covid-19 issues. With all the new guys and a rookie QB it will be difficult to hit the ground running with a shortened offseason. Joe Burrow will more than likely need a season to build chemistry with the WR’s and get comfortable in a new scheme. I’ll be cautiously optimistic going into the season. I’m excited to see the team grow as the season goes on. They could be a dangerous team toward the end of the season.

(05-04-2020, 09:20 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: [ -> ]2 wins to 12 in one offseason would certainly be something...

I'll take it. And I know you would to!

(05-04-2020, 08:57 PM)Trademark Wrote: [ -> ]With all the free agency additions and the draft that the team had this is seriously a stacked team. I’m honestly excited and expecting 11-12 wins

No way can I say that at all at this time.

Last year, the most points they put against a team with at least 8 wins was 20 (and that was Week 1 vs Seattle).
They were third-worst in Points For over the season.

Do Green, Burrow, Higgins, Jonah Williams, and XSF turn this offense into a team that scores league average or above? I don't believe so.

I think a more realistic expectation is that the offense and defense get closer to the league average (but not above) and we see 6-8 wins.
This OL will need to gel again (remember that 2 of the 5 starters are gone now) as well as the QB with the receivers.
The LBs will need time to acclimate too.

(05-05-2020, 11:16 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: [ -> ]Tbf Marvin turned this franchise around long before those two got here.

Yes. 
He made the Bengals a playoff contender with Bob Bratkowski and Chuck Bresnahan.
Marvin actually didn't have a single double-digit loss season before Zimmer.

Improving from one year to the next is more about how much we improve relative to how much other teams' improve, not how much we improve relative to last year. So you can't just tally all the improvements we made on paper and how many injured players are coming back and count on an awesome season. This time of the year every fan in the NFL can use that logic!

I do think the team is moving in the right direction. But I sincerely think the floor this year is 4 wins. That could happen. I'm not going to put a ceiling on it, because I prefer to think in terms of "what would have to go right" to get those 11 or 12 wins versus "what could possibly go wrong" to have another crappy year. And the latter just seems more realistic.

What would have to go right: Burrow is a ROY candidate right out of the gate. Mike Jordan and Germaine Pratt make massive second year leaps. Either AJ stays healthy and regains his previous form or Ross stays healthy and breaks out. That 'Fred Johnson is a diamond in the rough' narrative the team has been pushing turns out legit. Motivated by being in a contract year, WJIII learns how to play the ball. We have ZERO injuries on the OL. Not all, but we'd need SOME combination of these things to happen.

What could go wrong: Geno's problems last year turn out not to be just the situation and he falls off a major cliff. That Fred Johnson narrative is the same crap we heard with Westerman, Redmond and others. AJ and Ross still can't stay healthy, and Higgins plays like a rookie WR. Jonah Williams plays like he hasn't played football in a year. Pratt has as sophomore slump and most of the rest of our LBs are rookies. Anarumo just turns out to be a terrible coordinator and is fired by the end of the year (God forbid that turns out to be true of Taylor - as somebody else pointed out, we still don't know what kind of coach we have on our hands here). Burrow's rookie year is mediocre behind a swiss cheese OL and another battered receiver corps but hey we have the best blocking TE in football (Sample). Mixon whines about his contract all year.

So yes many scenarios are possible but some version of the latter just seems more realistic to me.

(05-05-2020, 09:10 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: [ -> ]8 wins max. That makes us competitive in almost every game. I’ll take that

I admit I am being a bit optimistic, but even the most cynical fan should admit that we should win more than 8 games if everyone stays healthy, our coaches are competent, and Burrow and Williams just play up to their draft status.

It may not be probable that all those things to happen, but it is certainly possible.

On paper, the team has several question marks. The whole Oline could suck or be mediocre. How certain are you that AJ is healthy? A talented rookie QB doesn’t mean guaranteed, immediate results. I do think that the D has to be better and should show immediate improvement. I’m not saying that the offense can’t be good but I don’t see much production that can automatically be penciled in. You could probably pencil in production from a certain RB as long as he doesn’t hold out. The other teams that were already good also participated in the draft and free agency too. I hope for the best but understand that there’s no given here.

(05-05-2020, 04:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]I admit I am being a bit optimistic, but even the most cynical fan should admit that should we win more than 8 games if everyone stays healthy, our coaches are competent, and Burrow and Williams just play up to their draft status.

It may not be probable that all those things to happen, but it is certainly possible.

Too many things need to be perfect. You can’t expect that. They go 8-8 it will be a win. They can make a few more moves next offseason and if burrow is as good as I think he is they have a real shot next year.

(05-05-2020, 03:54 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: [ -> ]What would have to go right: Burrow is a ROY candidate right out of the gate. Mike Jordan and Germaine Pratt make massive second year leaps. Either AJ stays healthy and regains his previous form or Ross stays healthy and breaks out. That 'Fred Johnson is a diamond in the rough' narrative the team has been pushing turns out legit. Motivated by being in a contract year, WJIII learns how to play the ball. We have ZERO injuries on the OL. Not all, but we'd need SOME combination of these things to happen.

What could go wrong: Geno's problems last year turn out not to be just the situation and he falls off a major cliff. That Fred Johnson narrative is the same crap we heard with Westerman, Redmond and others. AJ and Ross still can't stay healthy, and Higgins plays like a rookie WR. Jonah Williams plays like he hasn't played football in a year. Pratt has as sophomore slump and most of the rest of our LBs are rookies. Anarumo just turns out to be a terrible coordinator and is fired by the end of the year (God forbid that turns out to be true of Taylor - as somebody else pointed out, we still don't know what kind of coach we have on our hands here). Burrow's rookie year is mediocre behind a swiss cheese OL and another battered receiver corps but hey we have the best blocking TE in football (Sample). Mixon whines about his contract all year.
.

This is an excellent break down of most of the big questions facing this team.  I doubt all will go bad, but I also doubt all will go good.  I have strong opinions on most of these issues, but I am going to try and list the "reasonable" opinion on each.

Williams and Burrow play up to draft status...."LIKELY"...I know we have missed on a few early round picks recently, but over time it averages out, and even though the draft is mostly a crap shoot more first round picks hit than miss.  

Fred Johnson helps O-line...."UNLIKELY"....There are a bunch of UDFA's playing in the NFL, but when you look at the hundreds that are signed each year the odds of finding a good starter are slim.  Sample size last year against two weak defenses is not enough on which to judge him.

Geno sucks..."UNLIKELY"....Geno may never be the All-Pro force he has been in the past, but he is still a very good DT.  His stats dropped off but his fellow NFL players voted him to the Pro Bowl.  The reasonable position is that he will start to decline like any DT his age, but still play well this year.

William Jackson sucks..."UNLIKELY"....Two words "Contract Year".  We have all seen him play well, he is still young, and as far as I know, 100% healthy.   

Higgins stars..."UNLIKELY"...At least not as a rookie.  But chances are good that he eventually develops into a productive WR

Pratt and Jordan improve..."LIKELY"....Sophomore slump usually occurs when a player overachieves as a rookie and the league adjusts to him.  I don't think that will be an issue with Pratt and Jordan.  Both should improve with a years experience.  The question is how much?

Green returns to star level..."UNLIKELY"...I know there are rare exceptions to the rule, but a WR the age of Green with back to back season ending injuries very rarely returns to old level.

Ross stays healthy..."UNLIKELY"....2014 Microfracture surgery right knee, 2015 missed entire season with ACL and meniscus damage in left knee, 2017 missed opening game with knee injury ended season on IR with shoulder injury, 2019 missed 8 games with shoulder injury.

Coaches good..."UNLIKELY"...before you blow your top remember that I am not giving my opinion.  I am just looking at the resumes of the guys on the staff.  None of them have had ever even started an NFL season as a coordinator before 2019.  Zac went to a Super Bowl but as a position coach, and no one else on his staff has won anything anywhere.  But the book is still out and just like everything else on this list it could go either way. either way.

The roster is vastly improved over 2019 via both the draft and free agency.  I agree on paper the Bengals look to be improved but it all comes down to the schemes the coaches select.  If the coaches dial up what they did in 2019 we're going to be picking #1OA again. 

(05-05-2020, 04:12 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: [ -> ]On paper, the team has several question marks. The whole Oline could suck or be mediocre. How certain are you that AJ is healthy? A talented rookie QB doesn’t mean guaranteed, immediate results. I do think that the D has to be better and should show immediate improvement. I’m not saying that the offense can’t be good but I don’t see much production that can automatically be penciled in. You could probably pencil in production from a certain RB as long as he doesn’t hold out. The other teams that were already good also participated in the draft and free agency too. I hope for the best but understand that there’s no given here.

Because he said he is and so did everyone else?