Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

(12-29-2021, 04:06 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: [ -> ]DT:  Ogunjobi:  50.3

LB:  L. Wilson:  51.7

Sometimes PFF makes me scratch my head.  How the hell do these 2 studs have such pedestrian grades?  

(12-29-2021, 04:08 PM)BurrowTheGoat Wrote: [ -> ]Sometimes PFF makes me scratch my head.  How the hell do these 2 studs have such pedestrian grades?  

I think it is a combination of two things...

1. They aren't as good as we think they are. 

2. PFF's system is flawed.

(12-29-2021, 03:54 PM)BurrowTheGoat Wrote: [ -> ]I trust Pollack 100% but man I would love to see Carman seize the jumbo package role.  In his fairly limited playing time I've seen him get after some dudes and put them on their ass.

Was thinking the same thing, dude is a mauler much more so than Prince.

(12-29-2021, 04:12 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]I think it is a combination of two things...

1. They aren't as good as we think they are. 

2. PFF's system is flawed.

I disagree with 1. Ogunjobi is always in the backfield creating havoc and he has 5.5 sacks on the year from the DT position
while being really good at stopping the run. Logan Wilson is still leading us in picks and was tackling very good all year and 
was the leader of our Defense. Thought he was one of the best young Linebackers I had watched this season before the 
shoulder injury.

PFF is a good Starter source but their "grades" are pretty consistently out in space.

(12-29-2021, 03:49 PM)pally Wrote: [ -> ]what the YTD don't reflect is that so many of them have improved as the year has progressed

Apple, Hopkins, and Carman are all in that camp. 

As far as the divergence from our eye test and PFF scores on guys oike Ogunjobi & Logan Wilson, I'd like to throw out a 3rd explanation (and I think the previous two offered are oerfectly valid):

1- Not as good as we think they are 
2 - Flawed PFF system 
3 - Big play bias 

I guess you could say that is part of #1 and or #2, but Larry (sacks, goal line stand vs Jacksonville) and Logan (early season tackles & picks) made a LOT of really big plays. Undeniably so.  In our minds, that is worth more.  But for PFF, it is just another play. Most guys, over time, this will even out.  I mean, it would be weird to be a subpar/mediocre player most of the time, but somehow make a lot of game saving/changing plays. Some guys are like that, though.  They have a knack.  Or they gamble a lot.  Some do like Dunlap and take plays off. 

(12-29-2021, 04:44 PM)Joelist Wrote: [ -> ]PFF is a good Starter source but their "grades" are pretty consistently out in space.

I kinf of disagree.  I mean, of the 45-50 guys rated, we are talking two head scratchers? That is pretty darn good.  And that is assuming the head scratchers are right.  Which is a bet I would hesitate to take. 

I only trust pff with qb, rb, wr, and te

(12-29-2021, 04:44 PM)Joelist Wrote: [ -> ]PFF is a good Starter source but their "grades" are pretty consistently out in space.

I wish more people understood this.

Internet arguments over the years
"Oh yeah? Well, I trust the guys making the Madden ratings over your opinions from your couch"
 . . . which later evolved into . . .
"Oh yeah? Well, I trust the guys making the Fantasy Football ratings over your opinions from your couch"
 . . . which has evolved in the current form of . . .
"Oh yeah? Well, I trust the guys making the PFF ratings over your opinions from your couch"

Translation:
"I can't form my own opinion so I'll just shit on yours because I found someone else that saw it differently in their very brief coverage of our favorite team that we focus on 12 months a year."

(12-29-2021, 04:54 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: [ -> ]Apple, Hopkins, and Carman are all in that camp. 

As far as the divergence from our eye test and PFF scores on guys oike Ogunjobi & Logan Wilson, I'd like to throw out a 3rd explanation (and I think the previous two offered are oerfectly valid):

1- Not as good as we think they are 
2 - Flawed PFF system 
3 - Big play bias 

I guess you could say that is part of #1 and or #2, but Larry (sacks, goal line stand vs Jacksonville) and Logan (early season tackles & picks) made a LOT of really big plays. Undeniably so.  In our minds, that is worth more.  But for PFF, it is just another play. Most guys, over time, this will even out.  I mean, it would be weird to be a subpar/mediocre player most of the time, but somehow make a lot of game saving/changing plays. Some guys are like that, though.  They have a knack.  Or they gamble a lot.  Some do like Dunlap and take plays off. 

I think you should have a big play bias. Making big plays matters more than just being solid all the time IMO.

But to each his own.

Silly autocorrect turned stats into starter. PFF is good for stats but there are just too many cases where their grades and what we actually see do not align to be able to give them credibility.

(12-29-2021, 04:08 PM)BurrowTheGoat Wrote: [ -> ]Sometimes PFF makes me scratch my head.  How the hell do these 2 studs have such pedestrian grades?  

People that usually post the single grade don't have levels of access to the more intricate details.

One big thing docking Ogunjobi is an abysmal run blocking grade. His pass rush grade is solid.
For comparison, BJ Hill is rated a lot higher than Ogunjobi because of his run defense. Their pass rush grades are about the same.

Logan Wilson also has a low run defense grade. His coverage grade is ok. But what people also may forget about Wilson is that while he was very good the first 6 games or so of the year, he started to decline before getting hurt at the beginning of Dec.
If a player had a string of bad games during the season, it's hard to really boost their rating back up much.

If anyone is curious, PFF is usually pretty hard on LBs. Only 10 LBs have a grade of 70+. Only 25 have a grade of 60+.

(12-29-2021, 06:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: [ -> ]People that usually post the single grade don't have levels of access to the more intricate details.

One big thing docking Ogunjobi is an abysmal run blocking grade. His pass rush grade is solid.
For comparison, BJ Hill is rated a lot higher than Ogunjobi because of his run defense. Their pass rush grades are about the same.

Logan Wilson also has a low run defense grade. His coverage grade is ok. But what people also may forget about Wilson is that while he was very good the first 6 games or so of the year, he started to decline before getting hurt at the beginning of Dec.
If a player had a string of bad games during the season, it's hard to really boost their rating back up much.

If anyone is curious, PFF is usually pretty hard on LBs. Only 10 LBs have a grade of 70+. Only 25 have a grade of 60+.

Need to bring back BJ Hill is all I can say, that dude has been a beast this year and has crazy upside.

Funny they say Ogunjobi has been abysmal against the run, I know he hasn't been as good as BJ Hill or definitely not as good 
as DJ Reader but I have seen Ogunjobi make lots of TFL in the run game this season. I do agree with another poster that said
it seems usually Larry's splash plays are early in the game and he seems to get worn out as the game goes on.

Wilson did fall off a bit mid season before the injury. Hopefully he just needed the rest. Think he still leads the D in tackles.

(12-29-2021, 06:56 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: [ -> ]Need to bring back BJ Hill is all I can say, that dude has been a beast this year and has crazy upside.

Funny they say Ogunjobi has been abysmal against the run, I know he hasn't been as good as BJ Hill or definitely not as good 
as DJ Reader but I have seen Ogunjobi make lots of TFL in the run game this season. I do agree with another poster that said
it seems usually Larry's splash plays are early in the game and he seems to get worn out as the game goes on.

Wilson did fall off a bit mid season before the injury. Hopefully he just needed the rest. Think he still leads the D in tackles.

Ogunjobi has 11 TFLs according to PFR.
Hill has 6.

So Ogunjobi makes more noticeable plays, but PFF looks at a player on every single play.
It's very possible that on the plays that Ogunjobi isn't the one making the tackle, he may not be doing as consistently as well as Hill.
But in most cases, people only notice a player when they are the ones making a play on the ball or ballcarrier.

(12-29-2021, 04:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree with 1. Ogunjobi is always in the backfield creating havoc and he has 5.5 sacks on the year from the DT position
while being really good at stopping the run. Logan Wilson is still leading us in picks and was tackling very good all year and 
was the leader of our Defense. Thought he was one of the best young Linebackers I had watched this season before the 
shoulder injury.

Ogunjobi actually has 7 sacks.

(12-29-2021, 06:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: [ -> ]People that usually post the single grade don't have levels of access to the more intricate details.

One big thing docking Ogunjobi is an abysmal run blocking grade. His pass rush grade is solid.
For comparison, BJ Hill is rated a lot higher than Ogunjobi because of his run defense. Their pass rush grades are about the same.

Logan Wilson also has a low run defense grade. His coverage grade is ok. But what people also may forget about Wilson is that while he was very good the first 6 games or so of the year, he started to decline before getting hurt at the beginning of Dec.
If a player had a string of bad games during the season, it's hard to really boost their rating back up much.

If anyone is curious, PFF is usually pretty hard on LBs. Only 10 LBs have a grade of 70+. Only 25 have a grade of 60+.

I’ve definitely noticed that.

(12-29-2021, 08:04 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: [ -> ]Ogunjobi actually has 7 sacks.

No surprise, I was just going off the number I last heard. Thanks for proving my point even more Nicomo.

How many sacks does BJ Hill have? He should have at least 5 by now.

Hill has 5.5. Add it all up and the DL has 33 sacks so far this season.

(12-29-2021, 11:01 PM)Joelist Wrote: [ -> ]Hill has 5.5. Add it all up and the DL has 33 sacks so far this season.

Nice, nearly double last season with 2 games to go.

(12-29-2021, 11:18 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: [ -> ]Nice, nearly double last season with 2 games to go.

And imagine if we had Ossai. Maybe half a dozen more?