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I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different...

(09-22-2022, 11:01 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]Not far off.

Shotgun - 80%
Non-shotgun - 77% run

Do you have anything on what the league average is?

(09-22-2022, 11:15 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]Do you have anything on what the league average is?

Shotgun - 72% pass
Non-shotgun - 68% run

False start on all of them, 5 yard penalty.. 

(09-22-2022, 11:20 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]Shotgun - 72% pass
Non-shotgun - 68% run

Based on that, what would be considered to be "predictable"? Or maybe better asked, are the Bengals the furthest from the mean?

I also wonder how they stack up via percentage of shotgun/non-shotgun and EPA, compared to the league. 

(09-22-2022, 11:12 AM)Tony Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different...

Nope. I will say where each came from after i give the actual play out. Probably later on tonight.

I’ve never been one to say I can guess plays before they happen, but I want to play anyway! There was one first down run last week that was so blatant after a decent first down pickup I knew it was going nowhere before the snap.

I’ll guess:


Pass
Run
Pass
Run
Run

I'm in..

Play #1- Run (Dive Left)

Play #2 - Run (Toss Right)

Play #3 - Pass ( Hurst in the flat)

Play #4 - Run (Up the Gut)

Play #5 - Pass (Hurst in the left flat, Tee on the slant, or if single covered- Chase deep)

(09-22-2022, 12:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]

I keep reading on here how so many think they can call the play before it's run, based on the formation. I'd like to see just how much of that is true. On a limited basis of course. 

I'm going to post the personnel and formation for 5 Bengals plays from random game(s). Each of these plays is first and 10. All you have to do is guess what play was run based off who was lined up where. If you really have the cajones, be a bit more descriptive in your answer. Don't just say "run" or "pass". 

Got it? Good luck.

Play #1:
11 personnel:  bunch formation-- X left (boyd), slot left (hurst), slot right (tee), Z right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap. 

Play #2:
12 personnel: (after shift), Y left (sample inline), h-back right (hurst), slot right (thomas) split right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. Pre-snap shift thomas and hurst from left to right.

Play #3:
11 personnel:  split left (tee), h-back left (hurst), offset stack right (slot chase, Z boyd)
QB shotgun, RB offset left. No movement pre-snap.

Play #4:
11 personnel:  split left (chase), slot left (boyd), h-back right (hurst), Z right (tee)
QB shotgun, RB offset right. No movement pre-snap.

Play #5:
12 personnel: 2 TE left (sample in-line, hurst h-back), split right (chase), slot right (tee)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap.

I will give this go. 
Play 1. Throw to Hurst on a seam route 

Play 2. Mixon run right behind Cappa

Play 3. Higgins on a shallow cross or 
Dig route 

Play 4. Boyd on a post route 

Play 5.Mixon behind Cappa again 

(09-22-2022, 11:52 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: [ -> ] There was one first down run last week that was so blatant after a decent first down pickup I knew it was going nowhere before the snap.

The thing is that people say a play is "predictable" yet when asked how they predict it they can can't explain how they do it.

For example, what made this play you mentioned so predictable?  Down and distance?  Formation?  Personnel?  

(09-22-2022, 11:40 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]Nope. I will say where each came from after i give the actual play out. Probably later on tonight.

I thought you were going to use the predictions for next Sunday's game.

If you picked specific plays they will just accuse you of picking outliers.

I 100% agree with you that fans can not predict the plays as often as they claim.  Plus it is way too simple to just say "run" or "pass".  And finally, it does not matter as much a some fans think.  They squeal about how much we run from under center and throw from the shotgun, but that is the same thing pretty much every other team in the league does.

(09-22-2022, 01:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]I thought you were going to use the predictions for next Sunday's game.

If you picked specific plays they will just accuse you of picking outliers.

I 100% agree with you that fans can not predict the plays as often as they claim.  Plus it is way too simple to just say "run" or "pass".  And finally, it does not matter as much a some fans think.  They squeal about how much we run from under center and throw from the shotgun, but that is the same thing pretty much every other team in the league does.

My choices will become obvious once i reveal them. 

(09-22-2022, 10:47 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: [ -> ]I expect Synric and AU165 to be the only one’s to come in and answer all of these lol.

I think they're both smart enough to already know that there are options with every formation and personnel grouping, depending on what the defense is showing, that without an exhaustive film study, it's folly to try and predict what the play will be. 

On the surface, you have a 50/50 shot if you just say pass or run and the Bengals do have a tendency to be predictable--though i'd like to see some stats from Goose, from our conversation earlier--based on under center and shotgun, i think the every day fan just has a confirmation bias when they see 2 straight runs from under center fail. 

There are multiple things wrong with this team right now but i just got bored seeing people say "i knew what they were going to run when they came to the line!", so i threw this together. Thought it might be a fun little game and i might continue it. 

(09-22-2022, 11:12 AM)Tony Wrote: [ -> ]I'm thinking these plays are purposely picked where they rarely do something different...

So if they're totally random...they're predictable. If they were selected, then they won't be.

Should AT LEAST list the down and distance for each of those plays.

(09-22-2022, 03:54 PM)Tomkat Wrote: [ -> ]Should AT LEAST list the down and distance for each of those plays.

They're all 1st and 10. That's in the OP.

(09-22-2022, 04:02 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]They're all 1st and 10. That's in the OP.

Ah, ok... I missed that.  My eyes went right to the diagrams looking for it there.

(09-22-2022, 12:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]

I keep reading on here how so many think they can call the play before it's run, based on the formation. I'd like to see just how much of that is true. On a limited basis of course. 

I'm going to post the personnel and formation for 5 Bengals plays from random game(s). Each of these plays is first and 10. All you have to do is guess what play was run based off who was lined up where. If you really have the cajones, be a bit more descriptive in your answer. Don't just say "run" or "pass". 

Got it? Good luck.

Play #1:
11 personnel:  bunch formation-- X left (boyd), slot left (hurst), slot right (tee), Z right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap. 

Play #2:
12 personnel: (after shift), Y left (sample inline), h-back right (hurst), slot right (thomas) split right (chase)
QB under center, RB i formation. Pre-snap shift thomas and hurst from left to right.

Play #3:
11 personnel:  split left (tee), h-back left (hurst), offset stack right (slot chase, Z boyd)
QB shotgun, RB offset left. No movement pre-snap.

Play #4:
11 personnel:  split left (chase), slot left (boyd), h-back right (hurst), Z right (tee)
QB shotgun, RB offset right. No movement pre-snap.

Play #5:
12 personnel: 2 TE left (sample in-line, hurst h-back), split right (chase), slot right (tee)
QB under center, RB i formation. No movement pre-snap.

What's the distance to the end zone for these plays?
What's the time left in the half/game?
What's the score at the time of running each?

Those all matter when trying to predict what the play call will be, despite what the formation says.

(09-22-2022, 04:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: [ -> ]What's the distance to the end zone for these plays?
What's the time left in the half/game?
What's the score at the time of running each?

Those all matter when trying to predict what the play call will be, despite what the formation says.

Not according to those who "know what play will be run". The inference is, they're so predictable that when they come to the line, it's known what play will be run by the formation. 

The things you listed could be important in certain parts of the game. In a close game, not as much. In a blowout for, you'd expect more running and in a blowout against, you'd expect more passing. 

I will say that the game was not "on the line" when any of these plays were run and there was not a large + or - on the scoreboard. I didn't pick any crazy outliers or instances where they were obviously in an abnormal circumstance. 

I think them all being "1st and 10" favors you, a bit, as those plays have more possibilities (also, field position plays a factor)
That said, I'm not one of those people who says I can predict plays based on formation, so I'm not even going to try.

I'd love to see these same formations on 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10 - backed up in own territory vs. being deep in opponent's territory, etc.

Also, wouldn't sceenshots of the formations be better? (With the score/clock title-bar cropped out of course, so that people couldn't "cheat" by re-watching the game and finding the exact play.