Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

(10-26-2022, 12:29 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: [ -> ]He lost me at college stats.  Look what Evans did IN THE PROS last year in limited action.  

He had 17 rushing attempts last year. Have you ever heard of the term "sample size"? 

(10-26-2022, 09:55 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]Of course, I've mentioned that earlier in this conversation about "both backs will largely get you what the offensive line gives them". CEH has a better line, so he is more efficient, the inverse is true with Mixon. Inevitably, it leads to me looking for things that they can control. CEH breaks tackles more often and is better at getting yardage after contact. They are both talented receivers but neither are game breaking. Neither of them pass block very well. 

The major difference is that Mixon is a lead back, but CEH led the committee in his rookie season. He tallied 1,100 yards at five yards per touch, which is respectable and on par, if not slightly better, than what Mixon has done throughout his career. The truth is that many backs are very similar in what they are capable of doing. The number of backs that are genuine difference makers are very few. Neither Mixon or CEH are one those guys. Hell, we could replace Mixon with Perine today and likely wouldn't see a drop off in our run game, though that would be hard to do in all fairness. We are one of the worst rushing teams in the league again.

Many fans don't like the "RBs don't matter argument" but it largely holds true. Unless you have a Nick Chubb type RB, you can probably replace your guy and see similar production with an "unpopular" name. 

So having a good running back does matter...

(10-25-2022, 09:48 AM)BurrowTheGoat Wrote: [ -> ]

All 3 Chiefs RBs have been healthy this year and all 3 get carries.  We are talking about running back here the most physically demanding position in all of sports.  The more guys you can rotate in the better.  

None of these dudes are getting paid like a Top 10 RB in the league though.
If you paying Mixon all that money, he gets the majority of the carries to justify his cost.

If you want RBBC, don't have a RB who costs $10+ mill APY.

(10-26-2022, 03:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: [ -> ]None of these dudes are getting paid like a Top 10 RB in the league though.
If you paying Mixon all that money, he gets the majority of the carries to justify his cost.

If you want RBBC, don't have a RB who costs $10+ mill APY.

And none of those guys are as good as Mixon. 

(10-26-2022, 03:27 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: [ -> ]So having a good running back does matter...

No. In the cases of elite RBs, it is minimal. Derrick Henry has largely played second fiddle to Tannehill when it came to Titans' victories. It wasn't how well Henry ran that was predictive of TN success, but how well Tannehill played that predicted TN success. The Browns have poor QB play, so obviously they are bad despite how great Chubb is playing. The Giants are overperforming with mediocre QB play, certainly, but they aren't a real threat to do anything and are a likely outlier. 

You can't easily replace what Nick Chubb is doing, but the impact that Chubb has on team success is minimal. That was the point of that post. RBs are always, always, second fiddle to QBs. Most RBs are not the Nick Chubbs of the world, so they largely don't matter. The Nick Chubbs of the world matter more, but they don't matter much. 

(10-26-2022, 03:42 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: [ -> ]And none of those guys are as good as Mixon. 

Not 100% sure about that.

CEH has 288 yards and 3 TDs on just 65 rush attempts.
Add another 16 rec for 137 yards and 3 rec TDs.

Mixon has nearly double the attempts (121) and only has 405 rush yards, 2 TDs.
Add 27 rec for 182 yards, 1 TD in the air.

If CEH got as many attempts as Mixon, it's feasible to think he'd have more production than Mixon.
Maybe he wouldn't though in the Bengals offense.

(10-26-2022, 03:42 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]No. In the cases of elite RBs, it is minimal. Derrick Henry has largely played second fiddle to Tannehill when it came to Titans' victories. It wasn't how well Henry ran that was predictive of TN success, but how well Tannehill played that predicted TN success. The Browns have poor QB play, so obviously they are bad despite how great Chubb is playing. The Giants are overperforming with mediocre QB play, certainly, but they aren't a real threat to do anything and are a likely outlier. 

You can't easily replace what Nick Chubb is doing, but the impact that Chubb has on team success is minimal. That was the point of that post. RBs are always, always, second fiddle to QBs. Most RBs are not the Nick Chubbs of the world, so they largely don't matter. The Nick Chubbs of the world matter more, but they don't matter much. 

I was talking about when comparing running back to running back. Having Henry or Chubb on your team is clearly more of an advantage than having someone like Jerrick Mckennon. 

Having an average running back is fine in today's NFL. I wouldnt pay top dollar for one, obviously. But to sit here and to act like having a good running back from a bad one doesn't matter is just crazy. 

(10-26-2022, 03:54 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: [ -> ]I was talking about when comparing running back to running back. Having Henry or Chubb on your team is clearly more of an advantage than having someone like Jerrick Mckennon. 

Having an average running back is fine in today's NFL. I wouldnt pay top dollar for one, obviously. But to sit here and to act like having a good running back from a bad one doesn't matter is just crazy. 

Oh, sure. Yes, that is true. They still don't matter much, but yes, they do matter more. 

(10-26-2022, 04:09 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]Oh, sure. Yes, that is true. They still don't matter much, but yes, they do matter more. 

All I know is that I miss having a true do-it-all 3rd down, change of pace back like Gio Bernard.  Prior to getting beat up over the years, he was as effective running between the tackles as he was in space, and how he stone a blitzing LB in his tracks when it came to pass protecting.

(10-26-2022, 04:18 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: [ -> ]All I know is that I miss having a true do-it-all 3rd down, change of pace back like Gio Bernard.  Prior to getting beat up over the years, he was as effective running between the tackles as he was in space, and how he stone a blitzing LB in his tracks when it came to pass protecting.

Yep. Gio was such an underrated part of those teams. He did a ton of stuff that never showed up in the box score. 

(10-26-2022, 04:18 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: [ -> ]All I know is that I miss having a true do-it-all 3rd down, change of pace back like Gio Bernard.  Prior to getting beat up over the years, he was as effective running between the tackles as he was in space, and how he stone a blitzing LB in his tracks when it came to pass protecting.

I liked Gio, he was just overpaid. Great receiver and great blocker. He was meh running the ball and rarely broke tackles, but his receiving/pass blocking was very valuable. My favorite back in the league is Austin Ekeler, but he doesn't block like Gio. 

(10-26-2022, 04:33 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: [ -> ]I liked Gio, he was just overpaid. Great receiver and great blocker. He was meh running the ball and rarely broke tackles, but his receiving/pass blocking was very valuable. My favorite back in the league is Austin Ekeler, but he doesn't block like Gio. 

Gio ran the ball just fine, until he got beat up from having to take over as the featured back, due to injuries to the featured back.  He didn't have world class top end speed due to his short stride, but man that guy had some acceleration after the cut.

(10-26-2022, 12:27 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: [ -> ]You are about the 5th person to say this so I will finally respond.  

Evans averaged almost one YPC over Mixon last year behind that crappy line.  He also had more TD receptions per snaps played and a better YPR number. 

So, he outperformed him LAST YEAR behind an inferior line and this year he isn't seeing snaps at all?

He has outstanding ability to cut and head outside.  Mixon misses a lot of these, and lacks the speed to burn a defense for crowding the middle.  

I am not saying you bench Mixon and Perine, but the guy deserves a series.  

he barely played last year, mop-up duty in two blow out is where he had 12 of 17 total carries.. from this read you would have though he had a good amount of carries and reps.. he had 15 total receptions last year.. he is 3rd RB.. what does that mean? he gets in more either when a Mixon or Perine go down or it is a blow out.. plus i care less about dynamic and more about secure with ball and dependable.. i trust Mixon and Perine better in those two areas

(10-26-2022, 03:24 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: [ -> ]Are you seriously trying to say that Evans is better than Mixon? Have you watched any tape of Mixon lately? He looks explosive as hell. There's a reason Evans is buried on the depth chart. 

The reason he is buried on the depth chart is he was an unexperienced 6th round pick with crazy athleticism.  Mixon was a 2nd rounder that has a ton of experience.  I am not saying he is better, but he clearly deserves more chances than he is getting.  He got more last year when Mixon was doing better than this year. 

(10-26-2022, 03:26 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: [ -> ]He had 17 rushing attempts last year. Have you ever heard of the term "sample size"? 

He also had 16 receptions with 2 TDs.   Mixon had 42 receptions with 3 TDs and about 2 fewer yards per reception.  How does the guy get more sample size without more opportunities?  You are making the point for me.  

(10-26-2022, 05:19 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: [ -> ]he barely played last year, mop-up duty in two blow out is where he had 12 of 17 total carries.. from this read you would have though he had a good amount of carries and reps.. he had 15 total receptions last year.. he is 3rd RB.. what does that mean? he gets in more either when a Mixon or Perine go down or it is a blow out.. plus i care less about dynamic and more about secure with ball and dependable.. i trust Mixon and Perine better in those two areas

Mixon single-handedly lost the Chargers game with a fumble-TD for LA.  I get what you are saying, but I think Evans deserves some more snaps.  Mixon hasn't been very good and Evans has some real traits.  

most of you people are cliches and never learn. Always thinking the guy who gets very little snaps is somehow better than what the coaching staff thinks

A tale as old as time that will keep repeating itself until earth collapses

(10-26-2022, 06:04 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: [ -> ]He also had 16 receptions with 2 TDs.   Mixon had 42 receptions with 3 TDs and about 2 fewer yards per reception.  How does the guy get more sample size without more opportunities?  You are making the point for me.  

You aren't comparing apples to apples. That's like saying Tua was a better QB than Joe Burrow after the first three weeks of the season because he had more yards, TDs, passer rating, etc. 

It's crazy to me that we are saying a guy is better/should get playing time over another guy based on 17 carries in the NFL. 

Chris Evans is nothing special. If he were special, the coaches who know 100x more about football than you and I would find a way to get him reps. 

(10-26-2022, 06:07 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: [ -> ]Mixon single-handedly lost the Chargers game with a fumble-TD for LA.  I get what you are saying, but I think Evans deserves some more snaps.  Mixon hasn't been very good and Evans has some real traits.  

What are Evans traits? What does he do better than Mixon? He looks slow as shit on kick off returns. 

Have you not watched the past few games? Mixon has looked amazing. His stats aren't eye popping, but watch the tape. He's running with explosiveness and quickness. 

(10-26-2022, 11:38 AM)TheFan Wrote: [ -> ]Comparing Oklahoma offense and Michigan offense is like trying to compare baseball to cricket. 

Oklahoma RBs always have crazy stats because their offensive was so good.
Kennedy Brooks (who?) Averaged 7ypc on 472 attempts
Tre Sermon averaged 6.5 on 455
Rodney Anderson 6.4 on 200
Alex Ross 6.4 on 123 carries.
Rhamondre Stevenson 7.2 on 165

For Michigan
in 2019 no one was over 5.1
In 2018 no one over 5.3
In 2017 no one over 6.1
In 2016 no one over 5.9 (except Evans who was 7.0)

Would you rather I compare their professional stats ?