Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

(01-31-2023, 01:45 AM)BuildTheWall Wrote: [ -> ]Vonn Bell is a must-have. He needs to be priority #1 in terms of our guys. 

I think it has been mentioned before but possible franchise tag there. 

Regretfully, I don’t see how we can keep Chase and Tee long term.

Getting studs on o line more important than having two veteran WR 1s

I hate it. Tee and Chase are both great players and seem like really good guys.

This is the formula with expensive QB’s.

#Chiefs 2022 draft
1st rd T McDuffie - starter
1st rd G. Karlaftis - starter
2nd rd B Cook - nickel SAF
2nd rd S Moore - 4th/5th WR & PR
4th rd J Williams - starter
7th rd J Watson - starter
7th rd I Pacheco - starter

12 selections currently in ‘23 draft

?

— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) January 31, 2023

(01-31-2023, 07:01 AM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: [ -> ]What are the chances the Bengals organization made a lot more money these past 2 years with the success we have had through extra merchandise sales?

It is possible, but keep in mind that on top of that range for those 4, you also have other FAs, have other holes that need filled, and a decent chunk of your first 3 picks are guaranteed. We also have Hendrickson, Reader, and Awuzie all heading into the final year of their contracts, too.

I just think about the fact that we've seen the Bengals FO mention multiple times they were preparing/prepared for Burrow's extension and they were confident in being able to offer up a Burrow extension... but radio silence on any other $100m+ commitments.

(01-31-2023, 07:35 AM)michaelsean Wrote: [ -> ]Why would Tee be worth more than the franchise tag?  Isn’t that an average of the top five?

Two big reasons.

1. When they talk about franchise tag numbers, they're almost always talking about the non-exclusive tag, which is averaged top-5 cap hits over the previous 5 years. 5 years really brings it down. Exclusive tags are top-5 cap hits of the current year, after FA happens, which is a big difference. For QBs this year it'll be at least a $13m difference.

2. They're using cap hits rather than average salary. Cap hits almost always go up as the contract gets towards it's end. So a guy with a 5yr/$100m might average $20m/yr, but his cap hits could theoretically be distributed like... $10m/$15m/$20m/$25m/$30m. So while he might be a highly paid WR at $20m/yr, he might only be at the $10m or $15m cap hit stage of his contract. 

- - - -

The 4yr/$100m estimation comes from looking at the best player comparisons available. AJ Brown signed a $25m/yr deal, DK Metcalf signed a $24m/yr deal. This will be 1 year later, and something that must be pointed out: Tee Higgins has the same agent as Jessie Bates (and Deshaun Watson). He's not going to undervalue himself.

Honestly I don't fully expect Higgins to be on the team in 2023. If they trade him, they can have a 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, and then can spend that $25m on signing like 3 good players. Figured in another thread that with that $25m, you can theoretically get Ethan Pocic at C (and move Karras back to LG), Dalton Schultz at TE, and a 1-2 year deal for Marvin Jones at WR and you're only looking at spending like $4m/yr more than just Tee Higgins... and you still get an extra 1st and 3rd round pick to add to your team with, too.

The Falcons, Titans, Texans (at 12), Patriots, Packers, and Giants all have a need. Giants would probably have to add more because of where their 1st round pick is. Colts would also make sense, but they pick too early and they're probably going QB.

(01-31-2023, 01:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]I was just thinking that Mixon would probably be willing to do a restructure. 

he did say Whatever it takes

(01-31-2023, 01:34 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: [ -> ]he did say Whatever it takes

I can complain about his production sometimes but i can't complain about his effort and what a good teammate he is. 

(01-31-2023, 11:09 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: [ -> ]This is the formula with expensive QB’s.

#Chiefs 2022 draft
1st rd T McDuffie - starter
1st rd G. Karlaftis - starter
2nd rd B Cook - nickel SAF
2nd rd S Moore - 4th/5th WR & PR
4th rd J Williams - starter
7th rd J Watson - starter
7th rd I Pacheco - starter

12 selections currently in ‘23 draft

?

— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) January 31, 2023

they got that in return for Tyreek Hill..

(01-31-2023, 01:45 AM)BuildTheWall Wrote: [ -> ]Vonn Bell is a must-have. He needs to be priority #1.

I agree Bell is a must resign. With Daxton Hill taking over the other safety position Bell on the field will be critical. One plus about that is before he joined the Bengals Bell specifically mentioned he wanted to come back to Ohio.

(01-31-2023, 01:34 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: [ -> ]he did say Whatever it takes

I assume he knows if he's released he's not getting $12 million on the market, so may as well just renegotiate here.

(01-31-2023, 08:53 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: [ -> ]

We might as well not even be on this list

We’re gonna have to pay too many guys to go in thinking this is our cap situation

I’d say just guesstimate that 70% of this number is gone

(01-31-2023, 01:46 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: [ -> ]they got that in return for Tyreek Hill..

But they got a 4th rounder and 2 seventh round starters

(01-31-2023, 01:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]I was just thinking that Mixon would probably be willing to do a restructure. 

From what I heard from Mixon and other rumblings so to speak, he is willing to restructure but his Yards after contact was bottom of league and Bengals may save 7.5 mil if they cut him.  They could scare the hell out of teams by getting Robinson or Gibbs.  

(01-30-2023, 10:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: [ -> ]Nice post, but I would point out that those three together are going to get contracts that have yearly averages somewhere in the $90m ($50m, $15m, $25m, respectively).

I still am just not sure I see how the Bengals extend all three of Burrow, Higgins, and then Chase next year while still making a complete team around them.

Even if they could make it work, would the Bengals be better off with just Tee Higgins or would they be better off with say... a 1st round draft pick, a 3rd round draft pick, Ethan Pocic at C (moving Karras back to LG), Marvin Jones at WR on a 1-2 year deal, AND Dalton Schultz at TE... for just like $3-4m/yr more? Chiefs had the same question with Tyreek Hill last offseason.

- - - -

The other thing I would say is I fully expect Mixon to be gone this offseason. Cutting him saves $7.2m in cap space and he's lost more and more playing time while being largely ineffective.

Yearly average and what is exactly paid each year are 2 different things though. 

It will take years for Burrow to be making 50M per, especially if he accepts a Mahomes-like structured deal.

(01-31-2023, 05:43 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: [ -> ]From what I heard from Mixon and other rumblings so to speak, he is willing to restructure but his Yards after contact was bottom of league and Bengals may save 7.5 mil if they cut him.  They could scare the hell out of teams by getting Robinson or Gibbs.  

LC's injury and Jonah's inconsistency removes any chance of us drafting a RB high, IMHO.

(01-31-2023, 02:40 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: [ -> ]But they got a 4th rounder and 2 seventh round starters

Chiefs may be the best talent evaluators in the league, or the luckiest...

(01-31-2023, 05:43 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: [ -> ]From what I heard from Mixon and other rumblings so to speak, he is willing to restructure but his Yards after contact was bottom of league and Bengals may save 7.5 mil if they cut him.  They could scare the hell out of teams by getting Robinson or Gibbs.  

The front office LOVES them some Mixon. I don't see any way they cut him.

(01-31-2023, 06:12 PM)casear2727 Wrote: [ -> ]Yearly average and what is exactly paid each year are 2 different things though. 

It will take years for Burrow to be making 50M per, especially if he accepts a Mahomes-like structured deal.

Yes, but when you do it for 3-4 guys at once, they're all going to be on roughly the same timeline of escalation. It's going to crush you at once after a year or two, and the Bengals don't have enough liquid cash to keep extending/reworking base salaries into big signing bonuses to keep making new cap space in a kick-the-can type method.

The Chiefs got exactly 1 year with Mahomes before they had to turn $21m into a signing bonus to clear up $17.3m in cap space. That FO is very good at manipulating the cap to make more space when needed, and even they had to not pay Tyreek Hill in order to be able to spread that cash around to the rest of their roster (and they're better for it).

I hope for Burrow to sign a 10 year deal, because it will age well so long as he stays content with it, but there's a big factor in Mahomes' deal that the Bengals almost certainly won't copy. Mahomes has giant roster bonuses on the 3rd day of the league year in March that become guaranteed the year BEFORE. That means this March Mahomes will get a $34.4m lump sum roster bonus right then for 2023 (already probably a problem for the Browns/Blackburns) but ALSO his 2024 roster bonus then becomes guaranteed as well, locking him into another $34.9m lump sum payment in March of 2024 even if he isn't on the team anymore. So when he gets his roster bonus from that year, his next year's roster bonus always becomes already guaranteed a year in advance.

Since Mahomes signed his deal, QB signing bonuses/guarantees have shot up a ton, partially because of Watson's $230m guarantee/$45m signing bonus, but also Stafford and Wilson got $60m and $50m signing bonuses just last offseason, and Prescott got a $66m signing bonus the year before.

Also probably going against my hopes/wishes of Burrow getting a 10 year deal is the length of the deal. Josh Allen is the only other QB who had more than 5 years, and he had 6. I won't be surprised if Mahomes ends up wanting more money on his contract in 2-3 years when he's the 15th or so highest paid QB. He already slipped to 5th in 2022 and he'll be falling down to 8th or 9th this offseason other agents/players will see that.

(01-31-2023, 07:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, but when you do it for 3-4 guys at once, they're all going to be on roughly the same timeline of escalation. It's going to crush you at once after a year or two, and the Bengals don't have enough liquid cash to keep extending/reworking base salaries into big signing bonuses to keep making new cap space in a kick-the-can type method.

The Chiefs got exactly 1 year with Mahomes before they had to turn $21m into a signing bonus to clear up $17.3m in cap space. That FO is very good at manipulating the cap to make more space when needed, and even they had to not pay Tyreek Hill in order to be able to spread that cash around to the rest of their roster (and they're better for it).

I hope for Burrow to sign a 10 year deal, because it will age well so long as he stays content with it, but there's a big factor in Mahomes' deal that the Bengals almost certainly won't copy. Mahomes has giant roster bonuses on the 3rd day of the league year in March that become guaranteed the year BEFORE. That means this March Mahomes will get a $34.4m lump sum roster bonus right then for 2023 (already probably a problem for the Browns/Blackburns) but ALSO his 2024 roster bonus then becomes guaranteed as well, locking him into another $34.9m lump sum payment in March of 2024 even if he isn't on the team anymore. So when he gets his roster bonus from that year, his next year's roster bonus always becomes already guaranteed a year in advance.

Since Mahomes signed his deal, QB signing bonuses/guarantees have shot up a ton, partially because of Watson's $230m guarantee/$45m signing bonus, but also Stafford and Wilson got $60m and $50m signing bonuses just last offseason, and Prescott got a $66m signing bonus the year before.

Also probably going against my hopes/wishes of Burrow getting a 10 year deal is the length of the deal. Josh Allen is the only other QB who had more than 5 years, and he had 6. I won't be surprised if Mahomes ends up wanting more money on his contract in 2-3 years when he's the 15th or so highest paid QB. He already slipped to 5th in 2022 and he'll be falling down to 8th or 9th this offseason other agents/players will see that.

I think the salary cap escalation will handle future years.

Mahomes said he doesn't care what others make. 

He was also quoted by CBS:

"When I signed my deal, I knew I was going to be pretty set for life regardless of what the market kind of happens," Mahomes said Friday on the rising quarterback salaries. "But you just keep playing."

"I mean money is one thing but when you get those Super Bowl rings at the end of your career, I think that's going to be the thing that you look back upon and I think I've made enough money from the football field and obviously off of it as well that it won't matter at the end of the day."

We need Burrow to take this approach.

The biggest news at least until the combine would be the club retaining the DC. Its selfish of me to not want him to go because a " system culture" has been created. If we are to lose one hopefully its on the offensive side of the ball.
I think that a name should pop in your mind if that happens. I'm still not over it and won't be watching the SB at all this year. Its draft time for me now officially. They won't miss me because 100 million people will tune in.
Not this Bengals fan.

call me crazy, but why cant cincy just take a page from the Chiefs strategy?

keep jamarr(kelce), let Tee or other potentially expensive receiver walk or just trade him(Tyreek), invest in trenches(namely o-line), and just bring in talented receivers for good value looking to play with Burrow for a year or 2. sort of like the bengals did with the Hurst signing

I truly believe this is the stronger strategy