I miss 538 and there base model and their QB model curious where are rating would have been pre Burrow and post Burrow and whether the raw numbers support what we are seeing out of Browning.
Could happen
Can’t hate on the simulation
All 3 teams left have a defense good enough to make it hard for Jake
These 3 games will be an indictment on Jake if anything
He’s playing an efficient brand of football right now so i don’t see 3 losses but i could easily see 2-1 in the next 3. Could also see 1-2.
(12-21-2023, 10:42 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: [ -> ]They are. ESPN is worth their weight in shit!
(12-21-2023, 10:58 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: [ -> ]I don't believe these so called simulations. The game is played on the field. I hope we win all 3 remaining games and go 11-6. That will get us in the playoffs for sure.
Same. Let's start tomorrow on another 3 game winning streak shall we....
(12-21-2023, 11:27 PM)sandwedge Wrote: [ -> ]Steelers are 20th in total D
Vikings are 13th in total D
Yep, plus the Vikings didn't allow a TD on like 28 straight series before our game which is insane Defense!
Browning will play better in this game than the last one against the scum you can bet on it.
(12-22-2023, 02:21 AM)Wyche Wrote: [ -> ]ESPN's SEC suckasses certainly don't believe the games matter. Neither does the CFP. I give two shits about what ESPN says.
(12-22-2023, 09:04 AM)Sled21 Wrote: [ -> ]Well it's ESPN.... so....
It's not like they are a sports network anymore.
Yeah, more like Entertainment Tonight.
(12-22-2023, 01:43 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: [ -> ]At Pitt will be tough. It always is. Down Burrow, Chase, Reader, and CTB makes it much more so.
Having said all that...we have won 3 in a row (Jax, Indy, Minny) vs teams that are all .500 or better and the Steelers have lost 3 in a row. I think we are slight favorites to win.
Further, I like our PO chances. I think if we win 2 of 3, we are in. We own the TB in head to head ties with Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Indy. A win tomorrow means Pitt cannot catch us unless we lose out. That would leave Denver (1 game behind) and Houston (Stroud likely out this week vs Cleveland) as the real danger teams for us if we finish 10-7.
I think Baltimore, Miami, and KC are likely in. Plus the South winner and Cleveland. The Browns seem likely to have nothing to play for in Week 18, clinched WC but no shot at division.
As long as we get to 10 and one of Houston & Denver don't, I think we are in.
Good stuff Ike as always, I just think the Bills will win out so we will have to win out to get the TB over them.
(12-22-2023, 02:04 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: [ -> ]
I mean he picked up the guy here. Could be more aggressive especially on the 2nd one. But all I've heard is about Mixon as he has improved which makes the PFF grade interesting. I'm not saying I don't believe you just seems odd and I do not always trust they're grading system. But he was certainly better than Chase Brown and probably why Brown dissappears for periods of time in games.
Good vids, thanks Nug.
(12-22-2023, 02:09 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: [ -> ]I think you may be overlooking Buffalo a bit too much. They play the Chargers this week then New Engalnd both see like easy wins on paper but we will need an upset. They play Miami the last week and that may mean something but time will tell. I know we own the head to head with Buffalo but that only matters if we are the only two with a tied record. Not sure how the rest of the tie breakers unfold.
Yes, that is what I am not doing, overlooking the Bills. They are playing pretty great right now, beat the shit out of a good Cowboys team etc.
I think they win out as I said. The Bills should beat the shit out of the Chargers, should beat the Pats and they always have the Fins number.
(12-22-2023, 10:24 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: [ -> ]simulations are just that a simulation of POSSIBLE outcomes... not a fortune telling device. and past data doesnt always dictate the future. espn does this for a click bait article
There is a billion dollar industry using prediction logic to steal your money. You can use your logic vs a computer’s, let’s see who wins.
I’m not talking about ESPN now, I’m talking about how you think you have enough data to outsmart a computer. You’re doing predictions too, everyone does it. If it used the same info you’re using it will come to the same conclusion, but the better predictor has more information than us and seed patterns you’d never notice. Like maybe McPherson is worse on turf, when it’s cold, when there’s no wind, lol.
The more data it has the better the prediction, its worst is as bad as our random predictions, it’s not going to be right 100% of the time just like any human. Someone who is 0/100 from 50 yards out, they’re gonna miss! Lol
(12-22-2023, 11:41 AM)sandwedge Wrote: [ -> ]All them games..... 
They had the same amount of wins as the bengals starting last week, but if you're still trying to say their defense is bad, then who won them 7 games. Not the Steelers offense that averages 15.9 pts per game lol.
Its a funny stat you chose to say the Steelers defense is bad considering that same stat the bengals D may be worst in the league (yards given up per game), in which case we agree.
This up there with their silly "win probability" graph
(12-22-2023, 03:59 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: [ -> ]There is a billion dollar industry using prediction logic to steal your money. You can use your logic vs a computer’s, let’s see who wins.
I’m not talking about ESPN now, I’m talking about how you think you have enough data to outsmart a computer. You’re doing predictions too, everyone does it. If it used the same info you’re using it will come to the same conclusion, but the better predictor has more information than us and seed patterns you’d never notice. Like maybe McPherson is worse on turf, when it’s cold, when there’s no wind, lol.
The more data it has the better the prediction, its worst is as bad as our random predictions, it’s not going to be right 100% of the time just like any human. Someone who is 0/100 from 50 yards out, they’re gonna miss! Lol
There is something no computer can gather or take into account and that is the human element.
(12-22-2023, 04:09 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: [ -> ]They had the same amount of wins as the bengals starting last week, but if you're still trying to say their defense is bad, then who won them 7 games. Not the Steelers offense that averages 15.9 pts per game lol.
Its a funny stat you chose to say the Steelers defense is bad considering that same stat the bengals D may be worst in the league (yards given up per game), in which case we agree.
Who said they were bad, just pointing out to you we just beat an even better defense last week and before that we beat the Bills which was an even better D..
You savvy??
(12-22-2023, 06:39 PM)sandwedge Wrote: [ -> ]Who said they were bad, just pointing out to you we just beat an even better defense last week and before that we beat the Bills which was an even better D..
You savvy??
The Colts aren't too shabby either, 2nd best pass rush in the NFL...
The data they would have to use would be Jake Browning's only appearance against the Steelers.
It’s possible. But you can’t count them out. For this weekend anyway.
(12-22-2023, 06:39 PM)sandwedge Wrote: [ -> ]Who said they were bad, just pointing out to you we just beat an even better defense last week and before that we beat the Bills which was an even better D..
You savvy??
You said they were 20th ranked, that is not good, maybe to you..
That simulator looks to be pretty accurate.
(12-22-2023, 03:59 PM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: [ -> ]There is a billion dollar industry using prediction logic to steal your money. You can use your logic vs a computer’s, let’s see who wins.
I’m not talking about ESPN now, I’m talking about how you think you have enough data to outsmart a computer. You’re doing predictions too, everyone does it. If it used the same info you’re using it will come to the same conclusion, but the better predictor has more information than us and seed patterns you’d never notice. Like maybe McPherson is worse on turf, when it’s cold, when there’s no wind, lol.
The more data it has the better the prediction, its worst is as bad as our random predictions, it’s not going to be right 100% of the time just like any human. Someone who is 0/100 from 50 yards out, they’re gonna miss! Lol
i never said i was running predictions or anything of the sort.
you just need to take them with a grain of salt becuase they are predictions no scripts of future events.