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I think this was a very good pick, very good. Talent wise, a massive home run in the 3rd round. Issue wise, 100% worth the risk, not there's a lot of risk to begin with but there is some concerns he just needs to grow up from.

If he didn't punch (or, as some pages said, assaulted) a female fan that was storming the field after a game, he may have been a top 50 pick.

As a player, he has so many outstanding traits. He has ideal size and speed (6'0", 196 lbs, 4.45 40), large hands (9.875 inches), a great RAS (9.09), solid production (1475 yards, 15 TDs over the last 2 seasons), an outstanding yards per reception (18.0 for career, 20.5 for 2023), an absolutely absurd average depth of reception (16.8 for career, 20 for 2023), one of the best drop rates in the class (2.9%, 0 drops in 2023) and has versatility in both outside and the slot. His contested catch rate for his career is also above average at 52.6%, but closer to 70% in 2023 if I'm recalling correctly (I hear Kollman say it during the live stream).

Some concerns in his profile: He had a very late breakout age of 22.2 (breakout age is an advanced metric that has a positive correlation to success in the NFL. The younger you begin to be a primary target in your college offense, the more likely you are to be a top receiver in the NFL) which is 14% percentile. He also has a very weak YAC/reception rating with just 4.11 YAC/reception. This is virtually identical to Charlie Jones' YAC/reception of 4.10, and this was one of his noted weaknesses as well. The big difference may be that Burton's role in the offense was essentially just a deep threat, and it makes sense that a deep threat doesn't have a ton of YAC. He'd either catch it near or in the end zone or he'd catch it over a guy who then quickly tackles him.

And then, obviously, the assault, and the fact that he's transferred through many schools in high school and college. Nothing ever explicitly indicating he was cut or released from those schools, but it's definitely bizarre.

I had basically written him off for the Bengals because I thought we were all in on high character team captains, and Burton is definitely not that, but because of that I had never actually watched the video of him hitting the fan.

And, look, you're going to sound like an apologist/biased fan when you say it, but it really wasn't that bad. This is not a Joe Mixon situation. It looked more like a slap than a punch to me. You be the judge.

My concern over this assault is less about the possibility of him being arrested for domestic violence of anything like that and more to do with just him being an emotional wreck. Get it together, Jermaine. You can't let your frustration manifest like this.

Regardless, if he lives up to his potential, he's a perfect Tee Higgins replacement who can wreak havoc in the slot for 1 or 2 years while Tee is held captive by the franchise tag. I think it's worth the risk in the 3rd round.

(04-27-2024, 08:29 AM)lone bengal Wrote: [ -> ]Like the pick good size & speed played against big time competition. Can play some slot this year and give you a speed element you didn’t have with Boyd and could play outside next year if Higgins leaves ? Far as the character concerns every team takes chances it’s all a gamble , guys like Sweat and Mitchell taken top off rd. 2. With Housh training him I’m sure we got a ton off inside info that other teams might have not had.

Immaturity can be fixed. Bad character not so much. I’m sure Housh knows his character. But immaturity make no mistake over bad character 365/24/7. Let me be more specific. My Oklahoma guy Baker Mayfield was immature. But his morals and character was knowing the difference between being a knucklehead and degenerate. Saban wouldn’t have taken a bad character kid in the portal. But he’s a hard worker and likes to take care of business on the field. Certainly the strong character of the position group and team surrounding him guides him. Troy Walter’s Zac has plenty of confidence in.

(04-27-2024, 01:29 AM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I went back and re-read the last 3 pages. Folks are praising it.

I didn't say anyone excused the Tennesse incident..

So what would you say if Pit had made the pick?

Nobody hates Bengals draft picks more than some Bengals fans no matter who they take. Some people also think Pit can do no wrong in the draft and any player they get is great and who we drafted is a bust.

Watching his tape he seemed to have good long speed but then also quick out of cuts, strong hands, willing to go over the middle. What were your thoughts on him as a player?

This guy wasn't going to be a top 20 pick based on his production.

Look, I like the speed and he has sure hands, but there were elite wrs that went higher.

(04-27-2024, 09:42 AM)CJD Wrote: [ -> ]If he didn't punch (or, as some pages said, assaulted) a female fan that was storming the field after a game, he may have been a top 50 pick.

As a player, he has so many outstanding traits. He has ideal size and speed (6'0", 196 lbs, 4.45 40), large hands (9.875 inches), a great RAS (9.09), solid production (1475 yards, 15 TDs over the last 2 seasons), an outstanding yards per reception (18.0 for career, 20.5 for 2023), an absolutely absurd average depth of reception (16.8 for career, 20 for 2023), one of the best drop rates in the class (2.9%, 0 drops in 2023) and has versatility in both outside and the slot. His contested catch rate for his career is also above average at 52.6%, but closer to 70% in 2023 if I'm recalling correctly (I hear Kollman say it during the live stream).

Some concerns in his profile: He had a very late breakout age of 22.2 (breakout age is an advanced metric that has a positive correlation to success in the NFL. The younger you begin to be a primary target in your college offense, the more likely you are to be a top receiver in the NFL) which is 14% percentile. He also has a very weak YAC/reception rating with just 4.11 YAC/reception. This is virtually identical to Charlie Jones' YAC/reception of 4.10, and this was one of his noted weaknesses as well. The big difference may be that Burton's role in the offense was essentially just a deep threat, and it makes sense that a deep threat doesn't have a ton of YAC. He'd either catch it near or in the end zone or he'd catch it over a guy who then quickly tackles him.

And then, obviously, the assault, and the fact that he's transferred through many schools in high school and college. Nothing ever explicitly indicating he was cut or released from those schools, but it's definitely bizarre.

I had basically written him off for the Bengals because I thought we were all in on high character team captains, and Burton is definitely not that, but because of that I had never actually watched the video of him hitting the fan.

And, look, you're going to sound like an apologist/biased fan when you say it, but it really wasn't that bad. This is not a Joe Mixon situation. It looked more like a slap than a punch to me. You be the judge.

My concern over this assault is less about the possibility of him being arrested for domestic violence of anything like that and more to do with just him being an emotional wreck. Get it together, Jermaine. You can't let your frustration manifest like this.

Regardless, if he lives up to his potential, he's a perfect Tee Higgins replacement who can wreak havoc in the slot for 1 or 2 years while Tee is held captive by the franchise tag. I think it's worth the risk in the 3rd round.

The uproar over his high school movement is bizarre and absolutely stupid to me. They count moving from middle to school to high school as a transfer? He was accepted to IMG and played there for at least year before coming back home, and that's a bad thing? I think people are reaching.

Holy cow. Welcome to Bengals new WR Jermaine Burton.

He scored #1 in our explosiveness ranking that we added to our board this year that has been predictive of tons of future NFL WR1s.

An absolutely phenomenal deep threat.

Man, they are having a hell of a draft.
This rocks. https://t.co/qI6hO3j75o
— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) April 27, 2024

(04-27-2024, 04:03 AM)Whatever Wrote: [ -> ]We needed a starting caliber WR. We passed on that need in the 1st and took Mims instead(which I'm cool with). Then a big run on WR's happened in the late 1st and early 2nd, so we took Jenkins(which I'm also cool with). 3rd rolls around and you've got a kid with 1st round talent at a premium position of need, but character issues. If the kid keeps his nose clean, you've got an elite talent at a premium position. If he doesn't, we're out a 3rd round pick, which stinks, but teams miss on 3rd round picks all the time. It's not the end of the world.

He's a Bengal, so I hope he's matured and reaches his elite potential. If he was a Steeler, then I'd hope he hasn't matured, punches Webster in the mouth, and gets cut.

For us, he's a gamble. But a 3rd round pick on a Top 20 talent at a premium position where you need an immediate starter is a risk worth taking.

Here's a question, which do you think is more likely, Burton never hits a woman again or Sweat never drinks and drives again?

Yeah, I get it. I too hope he earns OROY but we cannot talk out of both sides of our mouths. I felt the exact way about Joe Mixon; I wish the Bengals would have cut him after his summer of "Road Rage" (I know, she made it up) and house guests shooting neighbors. Not only did they not cut him, they made him Team Captain.
I was also one of the few that wanted Pac-Man gone after he punched the girl at the bar.

I'm sure TJ vouched for him and it seemed to be good enough for the team so "Go JB!"

(04-27-2024, 09:57 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: [ -> ]This guy wasn't going to be a top 20 pick based on his production.

Look, I like the speed and he has sure hands, but there were elite wrs that went higher.

His efficiency numbers were better than Brian Thomas who did go in the 1st. With better QB play and more targets he’s basically the same guy with the character red flags

(04-27-2024, 11:02 AM)Au165 Wrote: [ -> ]His efficiency numbers were better than Brian Thomas who did go in the 1st. With better QB play and more targets he’s basically the same guy with the character red flags

If I had to comp Jermaine Burton it would be a little more physical Stefon Diggs.

(04-27-2024, 11:06 AM)Synric Wrote: [ -> ]If I had to comp Jermaine Burton it would be a little more physical Stefon Diggs.

I was more so just talking about his production profile. That said, he has more top end to get behind defenses than Diggs I think.

(04-27-2024, 10:26 AM)casear2727 Wrote: [ -> ]The uproar over his high school movement is bizarre and absolutely stupid to me. They count moving from middle to school to high school as a transfer? He was accepted to IMG and played there for at least year before coming back home, and that's a bad thing? I think people are reaching.

That and he committed to two different schools before choosing Georgia on the day.
And then transferred again despite Georgia being his hometown state

It isn't a problem outside just that same question of decision making and emotional stability. It feels like he can't make up his mind and flip flops on decisions, which is part of immaturity.

(04-27-2024, 10:33 AM)bfine32 Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I get it. I too hope he earns OROY but we cannot talk out of both sides of our mouths. I felt the exact way about Joe Mixon; I wish the Bengals would have cut him after his summer of "Road Rage" (I know, she made it up) and house guests shooting neighbors. Not only did they not cut him, they made him Team Captain.
I was also one of the few that wanted Pac-Man gone after he punched the girl at the bar.

I'm sure TJ vouched for him and it seemed to be good enough for the team so "Go JB!"

You're right, and questionable off the field behavior or decision making can find it's way on the field. You bring up Pacman as an example. He showed the exact same loss of control when he allowed Porter to goad him into shoving him during that playoff debacle. His 15 yard penalty was the final nail in our coffin. He went to walk away from that woman at the bar you referenced. He walked away from her multiple times before he allowed himself to lose it and hit her. Hopefully this dude just made the worst mistake of his life in Tennessee, and has grown from it.

(04-27-2024, 11:02 AM)Au165 Wrote: [ -> ]His efficiency numbers were better than Brian Thomas who did go in the 1st. With better QB play and more targets he’s basically the same guy with the character red flags

Thomas is 3 inches taller and ten pounds heavier. He's a huge receiver by most standards. Burton has adequate size, but there a physical traits that Thomas possesses that Burton likely never will.

Character aside, I just don't think this guy is a Boyd replacement in the slot. His route tree is way too limited, from what I hear.

Seems like more of a Higgins hedge/replacement on the outside.

We may see some Chase in the slot this year. Jones & Irwin also.

(04-27-2024, 11:07 AM)Au165 Wrote: [ -> ]I was more so just talking about his production profile. That said, he has more top end to get behind defenses than Diggs I think.

I just think it's because Burton handles the route contact better than Diggs did coming out. Burton fits the Bengals WR profile physical sure handed receiver than wins in contested catch situations.

(04-27-2024, 09:42 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: [ -> ]Immaturity can be fixed. Bad character not so much.

Agreed. Hopefully it is just a need to mature and being on a team full of a bunch a grown men may help. People like Chase and Burrow can show him how you can be yourself, have a bunch of fun and enjoyment without being a degenerate. Best believe the AFC North defenders will be chirping him up at every chance to get that cheap 15 yard penalty. I think Chad had a way of being immature ( I think Marvin and Palmer was good for him ), but he was not known for stepping over the line with it on the field.

Was posted a few days ago.

(04-27-2024, 11:07 AM)CJD Wrote: [ -> ]That and he committed to two different schools before choosing Georgia on the day.
And then transferred again despite Georgia being his hometown state

It isn't a problem outside just that same question of decision making and emotional stability. It feels like he can't make up his mind and flip flops on decisions, which is part of immaturity.

I think it is insanely dumb to worry about a kid moving from middle school to HS, to IMG and back home. My kid did the same at McCallie and he is a high character person.

Also anyone worried about a 17 year old wavering on verbal commitments needs to do a little research, that happens EVERY recruiting season in football and basketball. The schools, college coaches and the boosters have much more to do with signing day volatility than the kid.

That said, I am not condoning the UT fiasco or stupid penalties on the field, he must mature if he is going to have a real career. But the transfer stuff is amateur at best.

(04-27-2024, 11:17 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: [ -> ]Character aside, I just don't think this guy is a Boyd replacement in the slot. His route tree is way too limited, from what I hear.

Seems like more of a Higgins hedge/replacement on the outside.

We may see some Chase in the slot this year. Jones & Irwin also.

Where are you hearing this? He has a full route tree beyond the line of scrimmage. No bubble screens or dump offs, he is a down the field receiver, but can run routes from all 3 spots. No doubt he likely needs some professional refining.

He had most of his catches outside the numbers in 2023, but in 2022 the majority of his catches were inside and he played a ton of snaps in the slot.

I think he is Boyd's immediate replacement.

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Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

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Isaac Curtis: The Real #85

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