Mike Greenberg the host of this years draft was on 1530 today with Mo Egger in the 4 PM hour.

Mo asked him straight up would you go Chase or Sewell. Greenberg's reply, when you have the chance to get the big time tackle, you have to take it.

He said he'd take Sewell or Slater, but his best proposal was to trade back to 9 with Denver who he believe will want to come get a QB and then you still get Sewell or Slater at 9.

The biggest take-away from things was his stat on OL in the 1st vs WR in the 1st.

He talked about Hit Rate on picks. This is a stat that shows how many times a 1st round pick signs a second contract with the team that drafted them. Means they were productive and the team extends them, therefore the pick was a hit.

Highest hit rate in round one by position group, the o-line at 60%.

Lowest hit rate in round one by position group.... WR at 25%

Yea, OT has a higher hit rate in the first round than WR and there are more quality WRs drafted outside of the first round than OTs. Historical draft data says go Sewell. However, the draft's depth and the actual players projected to be available in the first and second round at each position suggest Chase may be the better pick.

It's a tough call, for sure.

"success" is subjective, but first round OT hit rate has been around 50-60% over the last 10 years.
Some resources say it's more around 65% over a longer history.

For WR, most data says 30-50% depending on "success"
If you just count the WRs with early breakout age, it's 70+% https://t.co/Lg96H4mrcz

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 20, 2021

(04-20-2021, 05:49 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, OT has a higher hit rate in the first round than WR and there are more quality WRs drafted outside of the first round than OTs. Historical draft data says go Sewell. However, the draft's depth and the actual players projected to be available in the first and second round at each position suggest Chase may be the better pick.

It's a tough call, for sure.

this class is extremely deep in WR.

(04-20-2021, 06:11 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: this class is extremely deep in WR.

Yeah, for slot guys. And we’re not moving Boyd to the outside no matter who we draft.

(04-20-2021, 06:11 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:

"success" is subjective, but first round OT hit rate has been around 50-60% over the last 10 years.
Some resources say it's more around 65% over a longer history.

For WR, most data says 30-50% depending on "success"
If you just count the WRs with early breakout age, it's 70+% https://t.co/Lg96H4mrcz

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) April 20, 2021

Well Greenberg literally is writing an essay on it and talks about all 1st round WRs.. and says specifically, the hit rate is around 25%

Feel free to listen to his interview with Mo and have Goodberry or yourself tweet him to contradict his facts.

Personally, I see no reason for Greenie to lie, the guy has a great reputation and clearly knows what he is talking about.

What does this all mean for a franchise that in recent years (for whatever reason) has not completed a second contract with 1st round linemen like: Zeitler, Ogbuehi, and likely Price?... Vs. no second contract for a 1st round WR like John Ross?  

It could be saying, "Bengals bucking trends since 1991".
(I think it says a lot about our scouting department, to be honest.)

I was driving from Raleigh to Charlotte for work yesterday, and decided to listen to NFLN on Sirius XM. Solomon Wilcots and Torrey Smith led of The Opening Drive with a lengthy segment on the connection between teams building their OLs and wins starting to accumulate. They used the Colts over the past few seasons as their prime example.

Heading into the bottom of the hour break, they mentioned that reports are coming from Cincinnati that the Bengals are actually eyeing the possibility of drafting Lamar Chase. Their obvious initial reaction was of shock at how the Bengals, a team that watched their #1OA franchise QB, go down with a season ending injury to his knee. After the break, they took the rest of the segment to examine the positives and negatives of both sides of the Chase/Sewell debate. While conceding that either would be a tremendous addition to the Bengals team, it was mutually agreed that taking the OL was indeed the smarter way to go.

(04-20-2021, 08:44 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I was driving from Raleigh to Charlotte for work yesterday, and decided to listen to NFLN on Sirius XM.  Solomon Wilcots and Torrey Smith led of The Opening Drive with a lengthy segment on the connection between teams building their OLs and wins starting to accumulate.  They used the Colts over the past few seasons as their prime example.

Heading into the bottom of the hour break, they mentioned that reports are coming from Cincinnati that the Bengals are actually eyeing the possibility of drafting Lamar Chase.  Their obvious initial reaction was of shock at how the Bengals, a team that watched their #1OA franchise QB, go down with a season ending injury to his knee.  After the break, they took the rest of the segment to examine the positives and negatives of both sides of the Chase/Sewell debate.  While conceding that either would be a tremendous addition to the Bengals team, it was mutually agreed that taking the OL was indeed the smarter way to go.

Thanks for posting this. Another two names- and one of them a wideout. There may be a split between fans, but it seems like there's no split whatsoever between those who've actually played/managed in the league.

It's absurd that so many ppl in Cincinnati listen to the analytics community. It seems like a lot of the groupthink is sourced there.

(04-20-2021, 09:20 PM)tms Wrote: Thanks for posting this. Another two names- and one of them a wideout. There may be a split between fans, but it seems like there's no split whatsoever between those who've actually played/managed in the league.

It's absurd that so many ppl in Cincinnati listen to the analytics community. It seems like a lot of the groupthink is sourced there.

Actually, Wilcots and Smith did analyze the philosophy of building the line to support a franchise QB, compared to stockpiling superior weapons around him.  They had statistical data to support their points for both approaches.  The ultimate conclusion is that when you have a franchise QB, you protect him with a line that can also provide a rushing attack.  The franchise QB will elevate the skill players around him, as it is in the nature of a franchise QB to do so, with whomever he plays with.

(04-20-2021, 09:27 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, Wilcots and Smith did analyze the philosophy of building the line to support a franchise QB, compared to stockpiling superior weapons around him.  They had statistical data to support their points for both approaches.  The ultimate conclusion is that when you have a franchise QB, you protect him with a line that can also provide a rushing attack.  The franchise QB will elevate the skill players around him, as it is in the nature of a franchise QB to do so, with whomever he plays with.

Duke Tobin knows best though... he'll do it his way and draft Chase while everyone with any knowledge says... take Sewell or move down and take Slater.

(04-20-2021, 09:20 PM)tms Wrote: Thanks for posting this. Another two names- and one of them a wideout. There may be a split between fans, but it seems like there's no split whatsoever between those who've actually played/managed in the league.

It's absurd that so many ppl in Cincinnati listen to the analytics community. It seems like a lot of the groupthink is sourced there.

Here’s a former lineman that is much higher on Chase than Sewell (since I know you put a lot of stock into this stuff).

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/gm-report/brian-baldinger-praises-lsu-wide-receiver-jamarr-chase-ahead-of-2021-nfl-draft

There’s a link to his opinion on Sewell’s tape in there if you’re interested.

(04-20-2021, 06:21 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Well Greenberg literally is writing an essay on it and talks about all 1st round WRs.. and says specifically, the hit rate is around 25%

Feel free to listen to his interview with Mo and have Goodberry or yourself tweet him to contradict his facts.

Personally, I see no reason for Greenie to lie, the guy has a great reputation and clearly knows what he is talking about.

I've actually researched this myself. I went back to '95 and included the ~Top 10, with up to two OL per year (depending on the year). I tried to make it as relevant to our current situation as possible, basically. 

We have different definitions for hit rate and success, but there is still no comparison. I found a 71% hit rate on OL and just under 50% on WR. The hits on OL are also bigger in terms of HOF-quality, but that's admittedly a slippery slope since a lot of the data points are still active or just recently retired. 

Btw, I find Goodberry to be increasingly skilled at cherry-picking his data. I can't trust any of those guys anymore. They seem to have a horse in the race.

(04-20-2021, 09:27 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, Wilcots and Smith did analyze the philosophy of building the line to support a franchise QB, compared to stockpiling superior weapons around him.  They had statistical data to support their points for both approaches.  The ultimate conclusion is that when you have a franchise QB, you protect him with a line that can also provide a rushing attack.  The franchise QB will elevate the skill players around him, as it is in the nature of a franchise QB to do so, with whomever he plays with.

While a franchise QB can elevate skill players, I hope the Bengals don't get content with just putting anyone out there and hoping for the best. Even Aaron Rodgers is finding it hard to get anyone not named Adams to really produce right now at WR. 

The team has put them self in a position that either Sewell or Chase could be viewed as a "right" pick because it will fill a big immediate need, but it will also potentially leave a big gap at the other if the draft doesn't fall their way.

(04-20-2021, 09:32 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Here’s a former lineman that is much higher on Chase than Sewell (since I know you put a lot of stock into this stuff).

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/gm-report/brian-baldinger-praises-lsu-wide-receiver-jamarr-chase-ahead-of-2021-nfl-draft

There’s a link to his opinion on Sewell’s tape in there if you’re interested.

Thanks, I wasn't aware of Baldinger. That's close, but he doesn't explicitly take a side. 

I'm just tracking the names who think Chase would be the better pick for this team than an OL. Right now the list is almost blank (Jim Mora Jr, Mitchell Schwartz). Mind you, it doesn't mean that others don't feel that way. But at a bare minimum it does suggest that professionals don't feel comfortable admitting it. 

(04-20-2021, 09:27 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, Wilcots and Smith did analyze the philosophy of building the line to support a franchise QB, compared to stockpiling superior weapons around him.  They had statistical data to support their points for both approaches.  The ultimate conclusion is that when you have a franchise QB, you protect him with a line that can also provide a rushing attack.  The franchise QB will elevate the skill players around him, as it is in the nature of a franchise QB to do so, with whomever he plays with.

Yup, it's just common sense. 

(04-20-2021, 09:42 PM)tms Wrote: Thanks, I wasn't aware of Baldinger. That's close, but he doesn't explicitly take a side. 

I'm just tracking the names who think Chase would be the better pick for this team than an OL. Right now the list is almost blank (Jim Mora Jr, Mitchell Schwartz). Mind you, it doesn't mean that others don't feel that way. But at a bare minimum it does suggest that professionals don't feel comfortable admitting it. 

I just like that Baldinger has actually watched tape on both these players. And while he may not be coming on any Bengals videos and fighting for “Team Chase” he’s clearly way higher on him than he is on Sewell. He raves about Chase, and thinks he could be the first non-QB off the board, but has some “concerns” with Sewell’s tape vs Auburn.

(04-20-2021, 09:46 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I just like that Baldinger has actually watched tape on both these players. And while he may not be coming on any Bengals videos and fighting for “Team Chase” he’s clearly way higher on him than he is on Sewell. He raves about Chase, and thinks he could be the first non-QB off the board, but has some “concerns” with Sewell’s tape vs Auburn.

Yeah I know, I saw. And I agree with your interpretation. I'm sure he does feel that way, or that that's what he's trying to imply. And at least he's analyzing tape as opposed to painting with broad strokes. But I'm still waiting on a clear verdict.

Two main guys I'm still waiting on (in addition to Ocho lol) are Esiason and Collinsworth. Esiason can speak for QBs, while Collinsworth can speak for WRs and PFF. I'll reserve my final judgment until I hear from them. 

I'm in the 51% Sewell, 49% Chase group I suppose you could say. I'm not ruling out a stunner in us taking Pitts either. The NFLN guys had him as the 1st non QB coming off the board. They agreed that he was the most athletic guy in the draft. Anyway, for me it's the 2nd rd where I'm most concerned.

I was actually really surprised at how abysmal the success rate of 1st round WR has been. I read this thread and started to do a bit more digging.  I assume I was influenced by the success of the 2020 1st round WRs, but once I started to look at this it was shocking how much of an outlier that class was. I found this particularly shocking, bear in mind this was up to the 2020 draft

• 19 of the 77 wide receivers taken in the first round this century have or had fewer than 100 career receptions in the NFL.
  

This was also interesting:

Quote:Receivers are, to understate it, tough to pick well. Any GM telling you otherwise is either lying or ignorant. How tough is it? Let’s take a look:

   
So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. Yikes.

Even if we limit our results down to top-10 picks as we did with running backs, it’s still a shot in the dark. Half of the players never put up a 1,000-yard season and only 32% have multiple 1k seasons. Honestly, looking at the success rates tells me a trade back is probably the best call for teams hoping to draft pass-catchers. I’d rather pick twice late in the first than once early–save for those rare generational talents.

Sources:
https://www.milehighreport.com/2020/4/23/21232643/success-rate-of-first-round-wide-receivers-this-century

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/