(08-17-2021, 09:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 2nd round deal, his "meager" deal was $5m, and he actually got worse in year 2 compared to year 1.

2018: 489 yards/1 TD/77.7 QB Rating allowed... 8.3% missed tackle rate
2019: 509 yards/4 TDs/100.1 QB Rating allowed... 14.5% missed tackle rate


- - - - - -
Strike one, strike two, strike three. You're out?  

Nice try on the selective stat grabbing, fred jr.  Despite the numbers you posted, Pro Football Reference still has him at a higher AV in 2019 than 2018.



https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BateJe00.htm

(08-17-2021, 03:45 PM)Au165 Wrote: He is actually not a very good "coverage safety" and in reality is probably more linebacker/utility player. I still think the Simmons contract is a perfect blueprint for his contract because their skillsets are more aligned, but if you told me I had to give him the Adams deal to keep him I would probably do it.

Yes, pay Bates like Simmons, they are the same type of Safety.

(08-17-2021, 09:31 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Nice try on the selective stat grabbing, fred jr.  Despite the numbers you posted, Pro Football Reference still has him at a higher AV in 2019 than 2018.



https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BateJe00.htm

Well if your SINGULAR stat of AV that you Fred the 3rd'd says so, then we can happily ignore hard stats like TDs allowed, QB Rating allowed, and missed tackles. 

How is AV even calculated?

(08-17-2021, 10:06 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Well if your SINGULAR stat of AV that you Fred the 3rd'd says so, then we can happily ignore hard stats like TDs allowed, QB Rating allowed, and missed tackles. 

How is AV even calculated?

I've wondered that myself, but I'm convinced that it takes a lot more into consideration that just the categories that you mentioned.

(08-17-2021, 10:15 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I've wondered that myself, but I'm convinced that it takes a lot more into consideration that just the categories that you mentioned.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

Great read. It's more a metric of the player's value to the team, based on performance, games/snaps played, etc.

Love the stat; I know it isn't an end-all be-all (which is why I NEVER use it in our discussions), but it is a good number to use for general season performance.

(08-17-2021, 10:29 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

Great read. It's more a metric of the player's value to the team, based on performance, games/snaps played, etc.

Love the stat; I know it isn't an end-all be-all (which is why I NEVER use it in our discussions), but it is a good number to use for general season performance.

Beat me to it. AV is great for getting a general idea of how someone did. Another useful statistic would be success rate at an individual level, though I don’t know if anyone who tracks this. Maybe Football Outsiders? I know they track some success rate stuff.

A combination of success rate and AV would give you a really good idea of how good a player actually is.

(08-17-2021, 08:47 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: If we don't, some other team will.  

They can't this year.

If they want to give him that deal keep him at less than $3 million this year and give him that conbtract next year.

(08-17-2021, 09:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except that's how you get into bad contracts. You need it to also be based off of what he has done. That's why Hubbard was signed as a 2nd tier contract. You don't throw Top 1-3 contracts at guys based off of promise. 

Jamal Adams is only 1.5 years older than Bates but has a much much much stouter resume.

Your blind rallying call of "pay the man" is how the Bengals got stuck into a shitty deal with Mixon. There's no harm in letting Bates prove himself in 2021 if he wants to be paid as a top safety.


Except they're literally incapable of doing so as long as the Bengals give him the exclusive franchise tag in 2022. Heck, even if they give him the non-exclusive tag in 2022 that would still require an NFL team to not only pay Bates $17-18m/yr, it would also require them to give the Bengals 2 1st round picks.

The Denver S who had just signed the prior big contract this offseason was negotiating while being tagged for the 2nd straight year. It didn't stop them from getting a longterm deal done.

What's Bates option? Retire? He doesn't get paid. Sandbag? Nobody is going to pay a sandbagger, doubly so since Bates doesn't have an extensive history of excellence prior to it. His best option is to keep playing at a high level because he'll keep getting paid at a high level either by the Bengals once he's proven he's worth a top tier contract, or by another team once he hits FA in 2024. Le'Veon Bell showed that hold outs simply don't work. You'll probably never make that money back and the year off will probably ruin you on the field.

Bates was regarded as   the best safety in Football last season, he had a  Terrific Rookie season, and the guy has played 99% of the defenses snaps the last three seasons,and has not missed one game in his whole career. To say he hasn't earned a new contract is ridiculously absurd.

Also the numbers for safeties are only going to go up so signing him today would be a much cheaper move than tagging him twice.

Look at the upcoming free agent class in 2022
Marcus May, Tyran Mathieu, Marcus Williams, and Harrison Smith. Also Fitzpatrick will be looking for a new deal.

(08-17-2021, 11:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Look at the upcoming free agent class in 2022
Marcus May, Tyran Mathieu, Marcus Williams, and Harrison Smith. Also Fitzpatrick will be looking for a new deal.

Flooded market will drive down prices.

(08-17-2021, 11:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Bates was regarded as   the best safety in Football last season, he had a  Terrific Rookie season, and the guy has played 99% of the defenses snaps the last three seasons,and has not missed one game in his whole career. To say he hasn't earned a new contract is ridiculously absurd.

Also the numbers for safeties are only going to go up so signing him today would be a much cheaper move than tagging him twice.

Look at the upcoming free agent class in 2022
Marcus May, Tyran Mathieu, Marcus Williams, and Harrison Smith. Also Fitzpatrick will be looking for a new deal.

By PFF.

He wasn't regarded the best safety by the All-Pro teams, and he wasn't regarded the best safety by NFL players (top-100).

A couple people were praising AV earlier in the thread. He didn't lead safeties in AV, and there's been a lot of safeties who have had better seasons according to that in the last 2 years than Bates did in 2020.

He's absolutely earned a new contract. Never said he didn't. I said he hasn't earned a top contract. If he wants a $10-12m/yr deal (still top-10 money), by all means, give it to him. I just think if he wants to be paid like an top-3 safety at $15-17m/yr, he's not there yet.

Don't let the fact that he wears a Bengals jersey cloud your objective judgement.

Tagging him twice will be much cheaper regardless of the FA class if he wants Jamal Adams money. It was $10.6m for Safeties in 2021. Add 20% for the second year and that's $12.7m in 2023.

So no, extending him now at his demands of elite S money is not going to be cheaper than ~$23.3m over the next two years. It would have to jump $7-11m to make that true, and it won't.

(08-18-2021, 02:05 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By PFF.

He wasn't regarded the best safety by the All-Pro teams, and he wasn't regarded the best safety by NFL players (top-100).

A couple people were praising AV earlier in the thread. He didn't lead safeties in AV, and there's been a lot of safeties who have had better seasons according to that in the last 2 years than Bates did in 2020.

He's absolutely earned a new contract. Never said he didn't. I said he hasn't earned a top contract. If he wants a $10-12m/yr deal (still top-10 money), by all means, give it to him. I just think if he wants to be paid like an top-3 safety at $15-17m/yr, he's not there yet.

Don't let the fact that he wears a Bengals jersey cloud your objective judgement.

Tagging him twice will be much cheaper regardless of the FA class if he wants Jamal Adams money. It was $10.6m for Safeties in 2021. Add 20% for the second year and that's $12.7m in 2023.

So no, extending him now at his demands of elite S money is not going to be cheaper than ~$23.3m over the next two years. It would have to jump $7-11m to make that true, and it won't.

Exactly. I've never seen so many people so eager to overpay a player. Bates deserves a new contract, but he is not a 17 million dollar a year player yet.

You can't compare Jessie Bates and Jamal Adams because they don't play the same position.

(08-18-2021, 02:05 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By PFF.

He wasn't regarded the best safety by the All-Pro teams, and he wasn't regarded the best safety by NFL players (top-100).

A couple people were praising AV earlier in the thread. He didn't lead safeties in AV, and there's been a lot of safeties who have had better seasons according to that in the last 2 years than Bates did in 2020.

He's absolutely earned a new contract. Never said he didn't. I said he hasn't earned a top contract. If he wants a $10-12m/yr deal (still top-10 money), by all means, give it to him. I just think if he wants to be paid like an top-3 safety at $15-17m/yr, he's not there yet.

Don't let the fact that he wears a Bengals jersey cloud your objective judgement.

Tagging him twice will be much cheaper regardless of the FA class if he wants Jamal Adams money. It was $10.6m for Safeties in 2021. Add 20% for the second year and that's $12.7m in 2023.

So no, extending him now at his demands of elite S money is not going to be cheaper than ~$23.3m over the next two years. It would have to jump $7-11m to make that true, and it won't.

Exactly. Bates has absolutely ZERO leverage right now. He cant hold out because he loses 50K every day that he does. The Bengals have the franchise tag working in their favor the next two years (which Bates SURELY doesn't like). The Bengals are in a great negotiating position. 

If we don't extend Bates this off-season we have basically two more years to try and get the deal done. His value is at the absolute highest right now too, so its not like he's going to demand a significant more amount of money if he somehow plays any better. If anything, his value will decrease. 

Sucks for Bates but that's just how it is... 

(08-18-2021, 08:10 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Exactly. I've never seen so many people so eager to overpay a player. Bates deserves a new contract, but he is not a 17 million dollar a year player yet.

it happens every year around this time...  

Isn't Adams more of a linebacker hybrid in the box safety that terrorizes the QB? I cannot see this organization paying 17+ mil per for a safety.

(08-18-2021, 10:06 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: Isn't Adams more of a linebacker hybrid in the box safety that terrorizes the QB? I cannot see this organization paying 17+ mil per for a safety.

And Seattle has an affinity for this type of safety going back to Cam Chancellor in the Legion of Boom. Adams mighr not have gotten that much money from any other team.

(08-18-2021, 08:24 AM)Synric Wrote: You can't compare Jessie Bates and Jamal Adams because they don't play the same position.

Right, Jamal Adam’s has 2 ints in his entire 4 year career while Bates has had 3 every season of his 3 year career. One is a throw back box safety hybrid linebacker and the other is a center fielder. Now that said, they both bring game changing production in different ways which is why you pay both at the upper echelon of the market.

I said earlier, I’d prefer to pay him like Simmons but I’d pay him like Adams if push came to shoved because of the jump we will see in the cap next year. Structure it so we take the lump next year and then lower yearly hits the following 3 or so years.

(08-17-2021, 03:20 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Copy text, paste, find and replace "Jamal Adams" to "Jessie Bates", send to Bates for signature and approval.

Wonder if the Bengals won't go 5 years, $85 million.  And a bigger guarantee.   That ought to send a message to all the players and tell the national media to STFU at the same time.  

If I'm the Bengals, I want to see Bates put together another elite season before I pay him elite money. I love JBIII and DO feel he has earned a new contract, but if he's looking for Justin Simmons money I want to see Ed Reed-type play week-in and week-out. I want to see opposing QBs and OC's sweat knowing he's back there waiting to pounce on even the slightest mistake. That makes the big bucks. Now, if he's looking for 8-10 million per with some doable guarantees and bonuses, pay him NOW! The Franchise Tag is a nice tool to have in the back pocket, but I'd only use it as a last resort. I'd prefer to get him locked up, you never know if we'll need to use that tag on someone else (not sure if we have anyone worthy, maybe one of our 1-year signees plays light-out and we can't come to terms on a longer deal..Reiff? Larry O?)

(08-17-2021, 11:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Bates was regarded as   the best safety in Football last season

(08-18-2021, 02:05 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By PFF.

And yet the aren't regarding him as the best safety in football going into this season.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-safety-rankings-the-32-best-safeties-entering-the-2021-nfl-season

Where they have him ranked seems about right to me.