Sportrac says $49 million but I am seeing all sorts of numbers floated around. I know we can create more space by cutting players under contract, but what is our starting spot.

If you have a different number please give the source.

This guy is the best source of everything Bengals cap related.

https://twitter.com/andreperrotta13?s=21

Overthecap lists $49.2M so it's in line with what you see.

Yeah, the 2 best sources IMO are Spotrac and Overthecap. They have the Bengals at 48.8 and 49.2.

(02-25-2022, 11:47 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Sportrac says $49 million but I am seeing all sorts of numbers floated around.  I know we can create more space by cutting players under contract, but what is our starting spot.

If you have a different number please give the source.

I believe the $49 million number is now correct. The official cap for next season hadn't been set so , only projected, so different sites estimated it differently but it leaked yesterday by the NFLPA is should be $208 million so I think you will see the $49 million number from here on out.

(02-25-2022, 11:47 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Sportrac says $49 million but I am seeing all sorts of numbers floated around.  I know we can create more space by cutting players under contract, but what is our starting spot.

If you have a different number please give the source.

The reason this cap number has dropped SIGNIFICANTLY from the numbers that most people have been sharing is because of all the recent depth contracts that have been signed.
The active roster now sits at 46 players, which is about 10 greater than it was a week or so ago.

(02-25-2022, 12:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The reason this cap number has dropped SIGNIFICANTLY from the numbers that most people have been sharing is because of all the recent depth contracts that have been signed.
The active roster now sits at 46 players, which is about 10 greater than it was a week or so ago.

Which is interesting because it means that quite a few of those 46 players currently under contract will actually be removed from the cap hits when all is said and done.

Only the top 51 count, and they have all of FA and also 8 draft picks. Even if you over-conservatively estimate they only sign 5 FAs (both outside and inside) and only keep their top 5 draft picks, that's still 56 which means that's 5 players who will be kicking someone else off who will no longer count towards the cap the lowest of which right now is making $705k.

(02-25-2022, 01:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Which is interesting because it means that quite a few of those 46 players currently under contract will actually be removed from the cap hits when all is said and done.

Only the top 51 count, and they have all of FA and also 8 draft picks. Even if you over-conservatively estimate they only sign 5 FAs (both outside and inside) and only keep their top 5 draft picks, that's still 56 which means that's 5 players who will be kicking someone else off who will no longer count towards the cap the lowest of which right now is making $705k.

Correct.
Most of the players toward the bottom are going to potentially be replaced by draft picks or other FAs, so their cap is negated in a way.
That's why even though the cap only says $49 mill, a decent chunk will get replaced, which essentially means Bengals have more cap to work with.

Players that very likely won't make it that are listed:
Noah Spence ($895k)
Lamont Gaillard ($895k)
Jake Browning ($825k)
Keandre Jones ($825k)
Wyatt Hubert ($731k)
John Brannon ($705k)
Elijah Holyfield ($705k)
Pooka Williams ($705k)
Scotty Washington ($705k)
-----------------------------
$7.036 mill

You can also probably toss in Trayveon Williams ($965k), Isaiah Prince ($965k), and Thad Moss ($705k) to that list, getting the Bengals nearly an extra $10 mill in total.

(02-25-2022, 05:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Correct.
Most of the players toward the bottom are going to potentially be replaced by draft picks or other FAs, so their cap is negated in a way.
That's why even though the cap only says $49 mill, a decent chunk will get replaced, which essentially means Bengals have more cap to work with.

Players that very likely won't make it that are listed:
Noah Spence ($895k)
Lamont Gaillard ($895k)
Jake Browning ($825k)
Keandre Jones ($825k)
Wyatt Hubert ($731k)
John Brannon ($705k)
Elijah Holyfield ($705k)
Pooka Williams ($705k)
Scotty Washington ($705k)
-----------------------------
$7.036 mill

You can also probably toss in Trayveon Williams ($965k), Isaiah Prince ($965k), and Thad Moss ($705k) to that list, getting the Bengals nearly an extra $10 mill in total.

But we are still under 51 players, so how much cheaper can we sign replacements? 

The $7.036 million savings you project will have to be used to sign other guys at almost the same price.

(02-25-2022, 08:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But we are still under 51 players, so how much cheaper can we sign replacements? 

The $7.036 million savings you project will have to be used to sign other guys at almost the same price.

If you were the one making the decisions, how would you handle things?  Would you be looking to improve any specific position group?  If yes, at the risk of what other position group?

I've heard that they're just under $50,000,000, which, in Hobspeak, should come out to around $20,000,000 whenever he writes his annual "Cincy is scraping by" while everyone else has them ranked near the top in cap space every year.

(02-25-2022, 09:00 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If you were the one making the decisions, how would you handle things?  Would you be looking to improve any specific position group?  If yes, at the risk of what other position group?

We have two free agents on the O-line (Spain and Reif).  I would re-sign Spain.  I don't think he is that great, but I think we can get him at a decent price.  I would not re-sign Reif, but I would sign a RT at $10M+ for one year.  Hopkins is not horrible, but I feel he is overpaid.  I'd like to sign a young Center for $10-12 million and cut Hopkins $7 million.  Carman and Smith deserve a year to develop, but I would sign another vet like Miller/Su'a-Filo ($2-$3 million) for depth.

TE...Resign CJ if he is not too expensive ($7-$8 million)

D-line...I am a really big fan of Ogunjobi, but I don't think we will be able to afford him.  We are paying a ton of money to Reader, Hendrickson, and Hubbard.  We may have to cut back the spending a bit at DT.  The only problem is that Hill and Tupou played over 900 snaps.  That is the equivalent of another full-time player.  I am saying 2 guys at combined about $8 million.

Safety...I am also a huge fan of Bates, but he may be too pricey.  Just taking into account the players listed above I only have $15 million left and we still need a starting CB.  

At this point I believe we have to release Waynes.  That frees up another $10 million giving us $25.  

We are still 5 players short of 51 so that means at least $3.5-$4 million.  

We have to pay our high draft picks, but most rookies that make a roster displace a higher paid veteran, so they actually save money.  And picking at 31 makes a big difference.  Our first round pick will make about $3 million a year.  So I guess the net draft cost is $2-$3 million.  

Every team in the league sits on a little space in case they need to sign new players as injury replacements. Say $3 million.

That leaves $15 million for a starting safety and starting CB.  And CBs are not cheap.

This is where the accounting comes is.  All of the numbers I have listed above are "yearly average".  Since free agents get a lot of cash in their pockets from signings bonuses they don't mind taking small salaries their first season, especially the larger contracts.  If we sign 4 players to contracts of $7+ million (RT, TE, Saf, CB) we should easily be able to create $6-$8 million in cap space.  Not that much if you sign the RT to a one year deal like I suggest.

Don't count on any starters from the draft.  Take O-line if possible.  But picking at 31 it is often best to just go BPA and start developing starers for the future.  You can't always build your team through free agency.  You have to create a pipeline that has young players ready to be a starter when we need to replace one.   

(02-25-2022, 11:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We have two free agents on the O-line (Spain and Reif).  I would re-sign Spain.  I don't think he is that great, but I think we can get him at a decent price.  I would not re-sign Reif, but I would sign a RT at $10M+ for one year.  Hopkins is not horrible, but I feel he is overpaid.  I'd like to sign a young Center for $10-12 million and cut Hopkins $7 million.  Carman and Smith deserve a year to develop, but I would sign another vet like Miller/Su'a-Filo ($2-$3 million) for depth.

TE...Resign CJ if he is not too expensive ($7-$8 million)

D-line...I am a really big fan of Ogunjobi, but I don't think we will be able to afford him.  We are paying a ton of money to Reader, Hendrickson, and Hubbard.  We may have to cut back the spending a bit at DT.  The only problem is that Hill and Tupou played over 900 snaps.  That is the equivalent of another full-time player.  I am saying 2 guys at combined about $8 million.

Safety...I am also a huge fan of Bates, but he may be too pricey.  Just taking into account the players listed above I only have $15 million left and we still need a starting CB.  

At this point I believe we have to release Waynes.  That frees up another $10 million giving us $25.  

We are still 5 players short of 51 so that means at least $3.5-$4 million.  

We have to pay our high draft picks, but most rookies that make a roster displace a higher paid veteran, so they actually save money.  And picking at 31 makes a big difference.  Our first round pick will make about $3 million a year.  So I guess the net draft cost is $2-$3 million.  

Every team in the league sits on a little space in case they need to sign new players as injury replacements. Say $3 million.

That leaves $15 million for a starting safety and starting CB.  And CBs are not cheap.

This is where the accounting comes is.  All of the numbers I have listed above are "yearly average".  Since free agents get a lot of cash in their pockets from signings bonuses they don't mind taking small salaries their first season, especially the larger contracts.  If we sign 4 players to contracts of $7+ million (RT, TE, Saf, CB) we should easily be able to create $6-$8 million in cap space.  Not that much if you sign the RT to a one year deal like I suggest.

Don't count on any starters from the draft.  Take O-line if possible.  But picking at 31 it is often best to just go BPA and start developing starers for the future.  You can't always build your team through free agency.  You have to create a pipeline that has young players ready to be a starter when we need to replace one.   

Excellent breakdown. Sadly, I think Bates is the odd man out. We could draft one at 31 to save us that 15M~ to get better caliber O line, CB, or DT.

Bates shouldn’t be offered more than 11-12M

(02-25-2022, 11:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We have two free agents on the O-line (Spain and Reif).  I would re-sign Spain.  I don't think he is that great, but I think we can get him at a decent price.  I would not re-sign Reif, but I would sign a RT at $10M+ for one year.  Hopkins is not horrible, but I feel he is overpaid.  I'd like to sign a young Center for $10-12 million and cut Hopkins $7 million.  Carman and Smith deserve a year to develop, but I would sign another vet like Miller/Su'a-Filo ($2-$3 million) for depth.

TE...Resign CJ if he is not too expensive ($7-$8 million)

D-line...I am a really big fan of Ogunjobi, but I don't think we will be able to afford him.  We are paying a ton of money to Reader, Hendrickson, and Hubbard.  We may have to cut back the spending a bit at DT.  The only problem is that Hill and Tupou played over 900 snaps.  That is the equivalent of another full-time player.  I am saying 2 guys at combined about $8 million.

Safety...I am also a huge fan of Bates, but he may be too pricey.  Just taking into account the players listed above I only have $15 million left and we still need a starting CB.  

At this point I believe we have to release Waynes.  That frees up another $10 million giving us $25.  

We are still 5 players short of 51 so that means at least $3.5-$4 million.  

We have to pay our high draft picks, but most rookies that make a roster displace a higher paid veteran, so they actually save money.  And picking at 31 makes a big difference.  Our first round pick will make about $3 million a year.  So I guess the net draft cost is $2-$3 million.  

Every team in the league sits on a little space in case they need to sign new players as injury replacements. Say $3 million.

That leaves $15 million for a starting safety and starting CB.  And CBs are not cheap.

This is where the accounting comes is.  All of the numbers I have listed above are "yearly average".  Since free agents get a lot of cash in their pockets from signings bonuses they don't mind taking small salaries their first season, especially the larger contracts.  If we sign 4 players to contracts of $7+ million (RT, TE, Saf, CB) we should easily be able to create $6-$8 million in cap space.  Not that much if you sign the RT to a one year deal like I suggest.

Don't count on any starters from the draft.  Take O-line if possible.  But picking at 31 it is often best to just go BPA and start developing starers for the future.  You can't always build your team through free agency.  You have to create a pipeline that has young players ready to be a starter when we need to replace one.   

I see the only thing you are missing is contract creativity to sign players to huge contracts while pushing the cap hit down the road. For example, you could sign Bates to a 5 year contract for 75 million with 38 million guaranteed. You pay him a 25 million dollar bonus which 5 million per year goes toward the cap.
Year 1 salary = 3 million so (5 + 3= 8 million) cap hit year 1 and after year 1 28 of the 38 million guaranteed has been paid.
Year 2 pay 7 million in salary so 12 million cap hit and 35 of 38 million guaranteed money paid 40 million of 75 contract paid after 2 years
Year 3 pay 10 million or 15 million cap hit
Year 4 pay 12 million or 17 million cap hit
Year 5 pay 13 million or 18 million cap hit

Teams do these types of contracts all the time
So the idea you sign Bates for 5 years at 15 a year in equal yearly payments is not always accurate and they also would never sign any player with 100% of the contract guaranteed

In this case Bates gets a ton of money upfront and team gets cap flexibility to sign other players

(02-26-2022, 12:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I see the only thing you are missing is contract creativity to sign players to huge contracts while pushing the cap hit down the road. For example, you could ****

I thought of your comment on contract creativity when I was reading about how the Saints are handling their salary cap issues to remain competitive.  From ESPN:

"The New Orleans Saints moved more than $26 million in salary-cap charges into future years by restructuring the contracts of wide receiver Michael Thomas and offensive tackle Ryan Ramczk...  

Expect several more of these moves in the coming days, as New Orleans began the offseason about $75 million over the projected 2022 salary cap of $208.2 million per team -- the highest amount of any team in the NFL.

The Saints converted $14.6 million of Thomas' scheduled salary and roster bonuses into a signing bonus, which means they can spread the cap charges over the next five years. ***

Likewise, New Orleans converted $18.2 million of Ramczyk's scheduled salary and roster bonuses into a signing bonus.
The good news for the Saints is they have room to move more than $100 million in salary-cap costs into future years without cutting any current players if they don't want to. Obviously, they'll have to deal with those charges in future seasons ***"

(02-26-2022, 12:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I see the only thing you are missing is contract creativity to sign players to huge contracts while pushing the cap hit down the road. 

No, I mentioned it here.  

(02-25-2022, 11:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is where the accounting comes is.  All of the numbers I have listed above are "yearly average".  Since free agents get a lot of cash in their pockets from signings bonuses they don't mind taking small salaries their first season, especially the larger contracts.  If we sign 4 players to contracts of $7+ million (RT, TE, Saf, CB) we should easily be able to create $6-$8 million in cap space.  Not that much if you sign the RT to a one year deal like I suggest.

I would never want to be in a position like the Saints where you are moving $20+ million down the road because you will eventually have to make some cuts.

But we could easily create $5-$10 million in cap space if we sign 3 or 4 players to large multi-year contracts.

Oh look the saints and packers restructured contracts to help with the cap hit this year. For people that think you can’t get creative with the cap, it’s just not true.

(02-26-2022, 04:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No, I mentioned it here.  



I would never want to be in a position like the Saints where you are moving $20+ million down the road because you will eventually have to make some cuts.

But we could easily create $5-$10 million in cap space if we sign 3 or 4 players to large multi-year contracts.

If it resulted in a super bowl… Does it matter?

(02-26-2022, 04:56 PM)Bengalbug Wrote:  For people that think you can’t get creative with the cap, it’s just not true.

There is not a single person who claims you can't get creative with the cap.

(02-26-2022, 04:56 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Oh look the saints and packers restructured contracts to help with the cap hit this year. For people that think you can’t get creative with the cap, it’s just not true.

Here is the issue people don’t ever acknowledge, Cincinnati is relatively cash poor in relation to other teams. The reason Cincy doesn’t restructure is the same reason they don’t tend to spend big in FA, it requires large amounts of cash. People act like the NFL being a cap league creates a level playing field but cap can be bought if you have enough cash, in fact the cap realistically doesn’t exist if your willing to spend enough cash constantly.

Cash is not cap, cap is just an accounting method. People assume all teams have hordes of cash sitting around and the reality is some do and some don’t. We don’t so while there are ways to circumvent the cap it’s better for people to assume in our case the cap is in fact the cap.