Hey all,

I know I fashion myself as an amateur shark on here, but after last year having Burrow for CPOTY, Chase for OROTY, ZT for COTY (should have won), and the Bengals winning the AFCN, AFC, and Super Bowl....well, to be fair...I do it almost every year, but it happened for the first time this year.

A couple wagers I have some interest in for the 2022 season, in no particular order:

Zac Taylor for COTY. Currently +3200. That means a $100 wager pays $3200. I don't get it. Brandon Staley is +1500??? Based on what? Dumb 4th down decisions? This is an award that always seems to be a year behind. The coach that makes the big postseason run is more in the forefront of everyone's mind the following year. That is Zac.

Joe Burrow for MVP: +1500. Again, like COTY, runs a year behind. Regular season award.

Defensive ROTY: CTB +10000 (yes, $100 would pay $10,000) and Dax Hill +3500. One is already moving up due to a potential contract dispute and I am in the minority that if a team knocks the Bengals socks off (first round pick), they could trade Bates. CTB just has to beat out Apple, or have an injury to Apple (not what I want at all..) and he could surprise with what is sure to be a massively improved pass rush.

Bengals to win the Super Bowl: +2100. Sure, they stayed healthy last year, but what team in the NFL improved itself more than the Bengals? They already had the skill positions, and now they have better trenches.

Some wagers I like from around the league:

Sauce Gardner for DROTY: +900. We know he will start, and there will be tons of media around the Jets.

Derek Carr for MVP: +2700. Really high odds for a guy that will likely be in some shootouts and has some serious weaponry. I also like the Raiders +570 to win the AFC West. Everyone is in love with KC, LA, and Denver, but I like the Raiders. Huge odds to be one of four.

I also like the Eagles at +3200 to win the Super Bowl and Jalen Hurts +3500 as MVP. I see Dallas taking a huge step back, and the only other teams in the NFC that are at their level (IMHO) are Tampa and the Rams. Hurts has the weapons now, and they have a defense. It could all click for him this year (I am kind of rooting for him, which is usually my downfall...I can't bet on someone like Piggy because I hated him so much) but he could also prove he isn't the guy. Either way, I see the Eagles as boom or bust.

Alec Pierce for OROTY +5600. Will definitely start and has a ton of potential. Playing in a weak ass conference as well.

Lastly, I did a wager on the Cowboys to NOT make the playoffs. It was +240. I know I just said the NFC doesn't have much outside Philly, Tampa, and LA, but even though their AFC schedule is the AFC South, they still have a first place schedule and face Tampa, the Bengals, and Rams. I could also see Washington (I always want to call them the Commodores, and have their helmets be big 70s afros) and even the lowly Giants being much tougher this year. It is like what the Pats now face instead of 6 easy conference wins.

They don't have the odds yet, but last year I did the "Super Bowl Matchups" wagers with the Bengals against the Packers, Bucs, and Rams. Yes, that one paid big time. I will be doing it again with Bengals vs. Eagles, Bucs, and Rams. I am sure the odds will drop significantly. I am also do the same wagers with the Raiders.

I may get in on some 100$ bets for ZT to win COTY, Burrow to win MVP, Dax for ROTY, and Chase to lead the league in receiving yards, receptions and TDS.

(05-28-2022, 10:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Hey all,

I know I fashion myself as an amateur shark on here, but after last year having Burrow for CPOTY, Chase for OROTY, ZT for COTY (should have won), and the Bengals winning the AFCN, AFC, and Super Bowl....well, to be fair...I do it almost every year, but it happened for the first time this year.

A couple wagers I have some interest in for the 2022 season, in no particular order:

Zac Taylor for COTY.  Currently +3200.  That means a $100 wager pays $3200.  I don't get it.  Brandon Staley is +1500??? Based on what?  Dumb 4th down decisions? This is an award that always seems to be a year behind.  The coach that makes the big postseason run is more in the forefront of everyone's mind the following year.  That is Zac.

Joe Burrow for MVP:  +1500.  Again, like COTY, runs a year behind.  Regular season award.  

Defensive ROTY:  CTB +10000 (yes, $100 would pay $10,000) and Dax Hill +3500.  One is already moving up due to a potential contract dispute and I am in the minority that if a team knocks the Bengals socks off (first round pick), they could trade Bates.  CTB just has to beat out Apple, or have an injury to Apple (not what I want at all..) and he could surprise with what is sure to be a massively improved pass rush.

Bengals to win the Super Bowl:  +2100.  Sure, they stayed healthy last year, but what team in the NFL improved itself more than the Bengals?  They already had the skill positions, and now they have better trenches.

Some wagers I like from around the league:

Sauce Gardner for DROTY:  +900.  We know he will start, and there will be tons of media around the Jets.

Derek Carr for MVP:  +2700.  Really high odds for a guy that will likely be in some shootouts and has some serious weaponry.  I also like the Raiders +570 to win the AFC West.  Everyone is in love with KC, LA, and Denver, but I like the Raiders.  Huge odds to be one of four.  

I also like the Eagles at +3200 to win the Super Bowl and Jalen Hurts +3500 as MVP.  I see Dallas taking a huge step back, and the only other teams in the NFC that are at their level (IMHO) are Tampa and the Rams.   Hurts has the weapons now, and they have a defense.  It could all click for him this year (I am kind of rooting for him, which is usually my downfall...I can't bet on someone like Piggy because I hated him so much) but he could also prove he isn't the guy.  Either way, I see the Eagles as boom or bust.  

Alec Pierce for OROTY +5600.  Will definitely start and has a ton of potential.  Playing in a weak ass conference as well.  

Lastly, I did a wager on the Cowboys to NOT make the playoffs.  It was +240.  I know I just said the NFC doesn't have much outside Philly, Tampa, and LA, but even though their AFC schedule is the AFC South, they still have a first place schedule and face Tampa, the Bengals, and Rams.  I could also see Washington (I always want to call them the Commodores, and have their helmets be big 70s afros) and even the lowly Giants being much tougher this year.  It is like what the Pats now face instead of 6 easy conference wins.  

They don't have the odds yet, but last year I did the "Super Bowl Matchups" wagers with the Bengals against the Packers, Bucs, and Rams.  Yes, that one paid big time.  I will be doing it again with Bengals vs. Eagles, Bucs, and Rams.  I am sure the odds will drop significantly.  I am also do the same wagers with the Raiders.

Do not like any of the highlighted.....

-You say it runs a year behind, but I don't think that's true. 3 of the last 5 winners won it in their first year with their team.

-Neither of the two are currently penned in as starters, and each of the last 4 winners of DROTY had at least 7.0 sacks, and 8 of the last 12 (since 2010) had at least 7.0 sacks. You're best off betting on which rookie you think will have the most sacks. If you're not going to get sacks, you need big INT numbers, and neither of them have a college history of being big INT guys.

-Same reason for Sauce, but at least he has a starting role and a big market, plus he had as many interceptions in college as Dax and CTB combined. If he's going to win against sacks, he will need to pick off a lot of passes.

-I'm not a Derek Carr believer. He already had plenty of weapons throughout the years, and now he's in his 9th year in the NFL and his QB Rating has never been more than 13% above average, and his TD% has been below average in 4 of his last 5 years. He has thrown for 112 TDs in the last 5 years combined with only 1 missed game. That's 22.4 TDs per season, and it isn't like he adds anything with his legs to offset his lack of passing production. He's also 57-70 as a starter, with only 1 winning season out of the last 5. I think there's going to be a whole lot of letdown on how little Devante Adams improves Carr, and how much of a hit Adams numbers take in the Raiders offense. Carr is not Rodgers, and Waller and Renfrow are going to cut into Adams opportunities.

-For the same reason I don't believe in Carr as MVP, I don't believe in the Raiders winning that division. Would be more likely to bet on them to finish last than first. 

-I need to see Hurts be even above average before I ever bet on him to be MVP, and the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl. Also, the Eagles were down 31-0 in the 4th quarter of their "playoff" game, and down 31-7 with 5 minutes left in the game. 


...so I am going to pass on most of your bets. 

I do want to know next February how you ended up doing on all of these, though.

Let's bump this thread after the 2023 Super Bowl. I'm willing to bet that most if not all will lose. lol

I have $8,700 in my Venmo and PayPal from playing hold 'em in an online poker group, so I'm going to take a grand and put it on us to make the Super Bowl (wins $11,000), a grand to make it to win the Super Bowl (pays $21,000), and a grand on Burrow to win regular season MVP (pays $11,000).

Big payouts and winning one of them would cover the other two and it's not like I have much else to spend the money on.

(05-28-2022, 04:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Do not like any of the highlighted.....

-You say it runs a year behind, but I don't think that's true. 3 of the last 5 winners won it in their first year with their team.

-Neither of the two are currently penned in as starters, and each of the last 4 winners of DROTY had at least 7.0 sacks, and 8 of the last 12 (since 2010) had at least 7.0 sacks. You're best off betting on which rookie you think will have the most sacks. If you're not going to get sacks, you need big INT numbers, and neither of them have a college history of being big INT guys.

-Same reason for Sauce, but at least he has a starting role and a big market, plus he had as many interceptions in college as Dax and CTB combined. If he's going to win against sacks, he will need to pick off a lot of passes.

-I'm not a Derek Carr believer. He already had plenty of weapons throughout the years, and now he's in his 9th year in the NFL and his QB Rating has never been more than 13% above average, and his TD% has been below average in 4 of his last 5 years. He has thrown for 112 TDs in the last 5 years combined with only 1 missed game. That's 22.4 TDs per season, and it isn't like he adds anything with his legs to offset his lack of passing production. He's also 57-70 as a starter, with only 1 winning season out of the last 5. I think there's going to be a whole lot of letdown on how little Devante Adams improves Carr, and how much of a hit Adams numbers take in the Raiders offense. Carr is not Rodgers, and Waller and Renfrow are going to cut into Adams opportunities.

-For the same reason I don't believe in Carr as MVP, I don't believe in the Raiders winning that division. Would be more likely to bet on them to finish last than first. 

-I need to see Hurts be even above average before I ever bet on him to be MVP, and the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl. Also, the Eagles were down 31-0 in the 4th quarter of their "playoff" game, and down 31-7 with 5 minutes left in the game. 


...so I am going to pass on most of your bets. 

I do want to know next February how you ended up doing on all of these, though.

That's no problem, and you can tell I like long shots.  Last year was huge, this year most likely won't be. 

A few defenses though:  The Eagles and Hurts bets is more of a gut feeling.  Hurts did pretty well last year, but once they ran in to playoff caliber defenses, they were exposed.  Ditto their defense.  I think, however, if you look at what they have done this offseason, they may be the most improved team in football, and in the NFC East, where I feel the Cowboys got worse. 

Once  a team gets to the playoffs like the Eagles this year, I can choose to let it ride (like I did with Cincy through the playoffs) or I can hedge it, and bet against myself.  The payday if the Eagles actually win the Super Bowl is so high, I can bet a good chunk against myself and while I may lose the $100 wager, I might profit $1000 from hedging the bet.  So, it isn't that I believe the Eagles will actually win the big game, and I get nothing if that doesn't happen...it was placing a solid wager that they will win it, and then cashing out big time if they get close.  

I really like Carr and think the +570 for the Raiders to win the AFC West is a solid bet.  He has had so much turmoil on coaches, etc, but now has a more offensive-minded coach and his college buddy Devonte Adams to draw coverage away from Waller and Henry.  They also have two really strong DEs.  I see them a bit like the Manning-led Colts.  They will try to strike early, get a lead, and release the hounds in the pass rush.  Carr is also a first class leader and a great guy.  Lastly, there is a really peculiar trend of teams that relocated making it to the big game a few years after. 

The two Bengals for DROTY are just crazy long shots.  Did the same thing for Ossai last year.  Looked good after one preseason game....

(05-28-2022, 10:02 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Let's bump this thread after the 2023 Super Bowl. I'm willing to bet that most if not all will lose. lol

You did read what hit last year, right?  

And this team did improve, right?  

I am NOT saying to spend money you don't have, but I have been pretty good at these in the past...be sure to read what I said in another post about hedging bets. 

$1000 on a team name change to the Cincinnati Goetta's..and a new logo of a roll of goetta! Man..now THAT would be ORIGINAL! Stupid maybe, but original..  You think announcers have a hard time pronouncing Bengals? How about Goetta's? 

(05-29-2022, 08:51 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: I have $8,700 in my Venmo and PayPal from playing hold 'em in an online poker group, so I'm going to take a grand and put it on us to make the Super Bowl (wins $11,000), a grand to make it to win the Super Bowl (pays $21,000), and a grand on Burrow to win regular season MVP (pays $11,000).

Big payouts and winning one of them would cover the other two and it's not like I have much else to spend the money on.

I'm thinking of putting $500 on each of those bets instead of a grand but then, again, what would I spend the money on otherwise?

The Bills and Chiefs in the AFC make me kind of nervous, but then I also think we'll be pretty unstoppable with even a decent offensive line.

I'm thinking maybe $500 a bet instead of a grand, which will still be a pretty nice payout.

Burrow being MVP I think is a safe bet with the OL improvements.

Mixon also should have a monster year. The guys we brought in are really good run blockers and Mixon has never had this.

(05-28-2022, 10:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Hey all,

I know I fashion myself as an amateur shark on here, but after last year having Burrow for CPOTY, Chase for OROTY, ZT for COTY (should have won), and the Bengals winning the AFCN, AFC, and Super Bowl....well, to be fair...I do it almost every year, but it happened for the first time this year.

A couple wagers I have some interest in for the 2022 season, in no particular order:

Zac Taylor for COTY. Currently +3200. That means a $100 wager pays $3200. I don't get it. Brandon Staley is +1500??? Based on what? Dumb 4th down decisions? This is an award that always seems to be a year behind. The coach that makes the big postseason run is more in the forefront of everyone's mind the following year. That is Zac.

Joe Burrow for MVP: +1500. Again, like COTY, runs a year behind. Regular season award.

Defensive ROTY: CTB +10000 (yes, $100 would pay $10,000) and Dax Hill +3500. One is already moving up due to a potential contract dispute and I am in the minority that if a team knocks the Bengals socks off (first round pick), they could trade Bates. CTB just has to beat out Apple, or have an injury to Apple (not what I want at all..) and he could surprise with what is sure to be a massively improved pass rush.

Bengals to win the Super Bowl: +2100. Sure, they stayed healthy last year, but what team in the NFL improved itself more than the Bengals? They already had the skill positions, and now they have better trenches.

Some wagers I like from around the league:

Sauce Gardner for DROTY: +900. We know he will start, and there will be tons of media around the Jets.

Derek Carr for MVP: +2700. Really high odds for a guy that will likely be in some shootouts and has some serious weaponry. I also like the Raiders +570 to win the AFC West. Everyone is in love with KC, LA, and Denver, but I like the Raiders. Huge odds to be one of four.

I also like the Eagles at +3200 to win the Super Bowl and Jalen Hurts +3500 as MVP. I see Dallas taking a huge step back, and the only other teams in the NFC that are at their level (IMHO) are Tampa and the Rams. Hurts has the weapons now, and they have a defense. It could all click for him this year (I am kind of rooting for him, which is usually my downfall...I can't bet on someone like Piggy because I hated him so much) but he could also prove he isn't the guy. Either way, I see the Eagles as boom or bust.

Alec Pierce for OROTY +5600. Will definitely start and has a ton of potential. Playing in a weak ass conference as well.

Lastly, I did a wager on the Cowboys to NOT make the playoffs. It was +240. I know I just said the NFC doesn't have much outside Philly, Tampa, and LA, but even though their AFC schedule is the AFC South, they still have a first place schedule and face Tampa, the Bengals, and Rams. I could also see Washington (I always want to call them the Commodores, and have their helmets be big 70s afros) and even the lowly Giants being much tougher this year. It is like what the Pats now face instead of 6 easy conference wins.

They don't have the odds yet, but last year I did the "Super Bowl Matchups" wagers with the Bengals against the Packers, Bucs, and Rams. Yes, that one paid big time. I will be doing it again with Bengals vs. Eagles, Bucs, and Rams. I am sure the odds will drop significantly. I am also do the same wagers with the Raiders.

Bengals win total and Mixon winning the rushing title might be good

(05-31-2022, 07:03 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Burrow being MVP I think is a safe bet with the OL improvements.

Mixon also should have a monster year. The guys we brought in are really good run blockers and Mixon has never had this.

Thinking about maybe putting a hundred on Mixon to have the most rushing yards because he's +1200, so even a hundred dollar bet would pay $1,200, which isn't a lot but it's also nothing to sneeze at and it would be fun to follow all year.

My personal opinion is that people tend to bet on what they want to happen instead of actually analyzing the stats to pick a winner. In other words, bet their heart and not their mind.

(05-31-2022, 03:29 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I'm thinking of putting $500 on each of those bets instead of a grand but then, again, what would I spend the money on otherwise?

The Bills and Chiefs in the AFC make me kind of nervous, but then I also think we'll be pretty unstoppable with even a decent offensive line.

I'm thinking maybe $500 a bet instead of a grand, which will still be a pretty nice payout.

Yeah, I rarely go over $100 in a single wager.  

(06-01-2022, 02:03 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: My personal opinion is that people tend to bet on what they want to happen instead of actually analyzing the stats to pick a winner. In other words, bet their heart and not their mind.

Almost always for me...teams and people I root for, and then I bet games week to week with an objective viewpoint.  Never wager much.  I get ahead and play "with their money", but I only like betting on the Bengals when it is a real long shot.  Unbelievably, they are still fairly long shots to make the big game again.

I know the statistical analysis and historical trends about teams that lose the Super Bowl, but this team wasn't blown up by guys wanting paid and leaving for more money, nor did they lose all their coaches.

Also, betting on guys like Alec Pierce to win OROTY is a huge long shot, but fun.  

I am kind of becoming an Eagles fan (WAY distant second to my Bengals) because of a couple guys I work with and I have loved what they have done this offseason.  Do I think Hurts has a great season?  No, and apparently, neither does Vegas...So I took some wagers.  

That's why I called the thread "entertainment purposes only".  And I am a big "don't wager what you can't afford to lose" guy.  It is just for fun.  

(05-31-2022, 07:42 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Bengals win total and Mixon winning the rushing title might be good

I took Breece to win the rushing total....at +6000.  If nothing else, I think with their TEs, o-line, and division, they will try to grind out a lot of games and avoiding shootouts.  

(06-01-2022, 08:15 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Yeah, I rarely go over $100 in a single wager.  

Besides for the Super Bowl, which I put $500 but didn't take the points, so I lost, I normally don't put more than a hundred on a bet, but these are for the entire season and I feel pretty good about them. That seems backwards in thinking because so much can go wrong in an entire season and playoffs, but I'm just banking on bad luck not hitting us.

Other than groceries and filling up my crippled van (which, admittedly, are both becoming ridiculously expensive), I don't have many expenses because my heating and air conditioning all get charged to my brother-in-law's house, so they pay for all of that, so I have spare money to spend on whatever with my poker winnings. 

(05-31-2022, 08:45 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Thinking about maybe putting a hundred on Mixon to have the most rushing yards because he's +1200, so even a hundred dollar bet would pay $1,200, which isn't a lot but it's also nothing to sneeze at and it would be fun to follow all year.

Think that would be a safe bet. Who knows how many yards Mixon can get running behind Karras, Cappa and Collins.

Carman might also come around or Volson at LG and Jonah is a pretty good run blocker.

(06-01-2022, 02:09 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Think that would be a safe bet. Who knows how many yards Mixon can get running behind Karras, Cappa and Collins.

Carman might also come around or Volson at LG and Jonah is a pretty good run blocker.

I still have high hopes for Carman and I think Volson will be a beast.

If nothing else, it brings competition when we have a lot of good linemen, which only improves everyone on the line because everyone knows they need to work harder to keep their spot.

(05-31-2022, 07:03 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Burrow being MVP I think is a safe bet with the OL improvements.

Mixon also should have a monster year. The guys we brought in are really good run blockers and Mixon has never had this.

Idk to me ARod will be a lock if the Packers do good. He’s gonna do his usual 40 TD 4000 yard stuff with basically no WRS.


The media is looking for any reason to ride Herbert’s meat too so he’d be my logic guess after Aaron