(10-10-2022, 10:06 AM)higgy100 Wrote: Like Harbaugh did? Did you see him last week amongst many other times the past few seasons? He's probably the last guy you want to discuss in the same sentence as logic. The only reason he went for it in the 4th last night was they had just gotten a penalty, it was 4th and 5 and he simply got abused by the media and his entire team by NOT taking the points the week before.

Harbaugh and ZT both rely heavily on analytics. 

The analytic isn't 100% probability, but they help you make the decision that gives you a better chance to win the game. It's so easy to sit here and second guess when things don't work out. That's just the way it is whether you like it or not. 

(10-10-2022, 10:10 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Harbaugh and ZT both rely heavily on analytics. 

The analytic isn't 100% probability, but they help you make the decision that gives you a better chance to win the game. It's so easy to sit here and second guess when things don't work out. That's just the way it is whether you like it or not. 

That's nice, for me, if you are on the road and not moving the ball at will and the game is tight, you take the points 99% of the time. Despite what the analytics say. Points is points, had we taken the 3 instead of going for it on 4th and 2. Tucker would have been removed from the equation at the end. it would have been TD or bust, and i'd take my chances with our D vs giving Tucker a shot at a 50 yarder. I like those analytics better than going for it.

(10-10-2022, 10:06 AM)higgy100 Wrote: Like Harbaugh did? Did you see him last week amongst many other times the past few seasons? He's probably the last guy you want to discuss in the same sentence as logic. The only reason he went for it in the 4th last night was they had just gotten a penalty, it was 4th and 5 and he simply got abused by the media and his entire team by NOT taking the points the week before.

Yes, and I see that it hasn’t worked out for him over the past two years.

(10-10-2022, 10:16 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: That's nice, for me, if you are on the road and not moving the ball at will and the game is tight, you take the points 99% of the time. Despite what the analytics say. Points is points, had we taken the 3 instead of going for it on 4th and 2. Tucker would have been removed from the equation at the end. it would have been TD or bust, and i'd take my chances with our D vs giving Tucker a shot at a 50 yarder. I like those analytics better than going for it.

That math broke down to this...

Go for it and succeed - 59% chance of winning
Go for it and fail - 31% chance of winning
Kick the FG - 41% chance of winning

Conversion probability - 46%

It's impossible to say that the FG here removes Tucker from the equation. You're assuming that the game goes the exact same way, and it probably wouldn't have. The 4th down decisions are always going to inherently be controversial. You'll have fans like you, who are very conservative in what they want to do. On the flip side, you have fans who are going to be aggressive in what they want to do.

Both sides are going to swear you're the dumbest bastard alive, regardless of the decision. Most fans are also completely ignorant to what they are talking about, but that's a different conversation. It's always easy to criticize with hindsight. If ZT took the FG and still lost, there's fans arguing the exact opposite of what you're doing now. 

Can we guarantee Maybe Mac makes the FG? Remember his next kick he almost (did0 miss an XP. Imagine the outrage if we go for the FG on 4th and 2 and miss it. I'd go out on a limb and say there'd be a lot of threads started about how bad Zac is.

(10-10-2022, 10:25 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: That math broke down to this...

Go for it and succeed - 59% chance of winning
Go for it and fail - 31% chance of winning
Kick the FG - 41% chance of winning

Conversion probability - 46%

It's impossible to say that the FG here removes Tucker from the equation. You're assuming that the game goes the exact same way, and it probably wouldn't have. The 4th down decisions are always going to inherently be controversial. You'll have fans like you, who are very conservative in what they want to do. On the flip side, you have fans who are going to be aggressive in what they want to do.

Both sides are going to swear you're the dumbest bastard alive, regardless of the decision. Most fans are also completely ignorant to what they are talking about, but that's a different conversation. It's always easy to criticize with hindsight. If ZT took the FG and still lost, there's fans arguing the exact opposite of what you're doing now. 

Football is one of the most complicated team sports in history. There are way too many variables to account for. You can’t say that kicking the field goal has a 41% chance of winning because no past team with the exact personnel, coaching staff, opponent, etc has kicked that field goal with the same score with the same weather, the same crowd noise, and the same stadium. There are way too many outside factors to calculate this number. Do you honestly believe that those numbers are accurate and we just got unlucky?

Maybe the average team had those probabilities with that score, but there’s way more to the decision than that. We’re not the average team over the past 50 or so years, and there are outside factors that the analytics cannot account for. You’re a fool if you delegate coaching decisions to analytics.

(10-10-2022, 10:10 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Harbaugh and ZT both rely heavily on analytics. 

The analytic isn't 100% probability, but they help you make the decision that gives you a better chance to win the game. It's so easy to sit here and second guess when things don't work out. That's just the way it is whether you like it or not. 

Second guess? What's to second guess? No, it's NOT easy to second guess because it makes zero sense in the first place. He could have taken the lead a week ago against the Bills and make them score a TD to beat you.It wasn't like it was a shoot-out game where nobody can stop anybody. He's made brain-dead decisions for years.

What's to second guess with ZT last night? If you're telling 1st down at the 2, I have no issue going 4 downs to score the TD but when you're physicality in a game is beating your opponent you DO NOT go finesse. Idiotic and stupid. He gives the ball to Mixon multiple times many games inside the 10 when the OL and Mixon are horse crap but when he's running downhill,even falling forward for 2-3 yards and your OL has the defense gassed and on their heels then you give it to him a couple times. ZERO ifs/and/buts.

Are you now going to tell me there's actual second guessing and how right Brandon Staley was yesterday for going for it on 4th and 1 on their own 45 when the Stains have zero time outs left and there's barely over a minute to go and damn near give them the game? Coaches get caught up alot in the moment and don't use common sense.

The entire game changes if you kick that FG. Baltimore drove down the field on the ensuing possession and kicked a FG from within the 5. They'd be more inclined to go for it now and the entire game changes. https://t.co/q0DeNTi984

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 10, 2022

I think this is a fair point. The Ravens had a what...4th and 1. They took a delay of game and kicked. Had we had the lead, they go for it.

(10-10-2022, 10:25 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: That math broke down to this...

Go for it and succeed - 59% chance of winning
Go for it and fail - 31% chance of winning
Kick the FG - 41% chance of winning

Conversion probability - 46%

It's impossible to say that the FG here removes Tucker from the equation. You're assuming that the game goes the exact same way, and it probably wouldn't have. The 4th down decisions are always going to inherently be controversial. You'll have fans like you, who are very conservative in what they want to do. On the flip side, you have fans who are going to be aggressive in what they want to do.

Both sides are going to swear you're the dumbest bastard alive, regardless of the decision. Most fans are also completely ignorant to what they are talking about, but that's a different conversation. It's always easy to criticize with hindsight. If ZT took the FG and still lost, there's fans arguing the exact opposite of what you're doing now. 

This. Exactly. 

I can honestly say that I was screaming “ take the field goal”

But going for it was not irrational.

What was irrational was having a first and goal from the two and not calling a single running play.

We have proven over and over this year that team cannot run wide

Calling a double reverse from the 2 is what was irrational and utterly wrong.

(10-10-2022, 10:34 AM)C0de_M0nkey Wrote: Football is one of the most complicated team sports in history. There are way too many variables to account for. You can’t say that kicking the field goal has a 41% chance of winning because no past team with the exact personnel, coaching staff, opponent, etc has kicked that field goal with the same score with the same weather, the same crowd noise, and the same stadium. There are way too many outside factors to calculate this number. Do you honestly believe that those numbers are accurate and we just got unlucky?

Maybe the average team had those probabilities with that score, but there’s way more to the decision than that. We’re not the average team over the past 50 or so years, and there are outside factors that the analytics cannot account for. You’re a fool if you delegate coaching decisions to analytics.

The outside variables don't matter. It's based on probability of winning the game based on situational decisions. 

You are telling me that you wouldn't go with the option that gave you a higher probability of winning the game? That's just absurd to me. 

(10-10-2022, 10:41 AM)bengals67 Wrote: I can honestly say that I was screaming “ take the field goal”

But going for it was not irrational.

What was irrational was having a first and goal from the two and not calling a single running play.

We have proven over and over this year that team cannot run wide

Calling a double reverse from the 2 is what was irrational and utterly wrong.

After the Philly Special...I was pretty convinced they need to kick the FG.

(10-10-2022, 12:49 AM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: That play sequence, 1st and goal from the 2..

If it was in doubt before, Zac officially became a Bungle tonight. Congratulations. Should have happened long ago.

Every week i watch and scratch my head and ask? "How did this team get to a Superbowl last yr?" 
There is something really wrong going on....we come out flat every week and takes a good half to get anything going on Offense

(10-10-2022, 10:34 AM)C0de_M0nkey Wrote: Football is one of the most complicated team sports in history. There are way too many variables to account for. You can’t say that kicking the field goal has a 41% chance of winning because no past team with the exact personnel, coaching staff, opponent, etc has kicked that field goal with the same score with the same weather, the same crowd noise, and the same stadium. There are way too many outside factors to calculate this number. Do you honestly believe that those numbers are accurate and we just got unlucky?

Maybe the average team had those probabilities with that score, but there’s way more to the decision than that. We’re not the average team over the past 50 or so years, and there are outside factors that the analytics cannot account for. You’re a fool if you delegate coaching decisions to analytics.

You can account for them, yes. We're just talking about data points and math. You don't have to act like analyzing football is solving quantum entanglement. At this point, we have millions of data points available to us with weather, stadium type, field position, player evaluations etc. Now, am I going to say that 41% is completely, 100% on the nose? No, but it is close enough to make a decision. It will also vary by model, of course, but only slightly. Situations like that have been played out so many times before, we have the dataset we need to calculate probabilities here and get us in the ballpark. 

I also agree, you don't delegate coaching decisions to analytics, which is a buzzword I hate. It's just math and statistics. They are tools used to help make decisions. 

Quote:Do you honestly believe that those numbers are accurate and we just got unlucky?

Yes, and no. Yes, I believe the numbers are accurate, or accurate enough to help make a decision. No, I don't believe the Bengals were unlucky. The odds were against them in that situation. They had <50% chance of converting the 4th down, and less than <50% chance of winning if they kicked the FG. I believe their luck played out exactly as the numbers said they would. They were slightly unlikely to convert (they didn't), which gave them an unlikely chance to win (they didn't). 

As much as we want to continue to talk about the goal line decision, I think the Burrow pick had just as much of an impact on the game.

Just stopped Baltimore on 4th down and had ALL the momentum.

— Andrew Russell (@Andrew_Russell7) October 10, 2022

(10-10-2022, 10:44 AM)kalibengal Wrote: Every week i watch and scratch my head and ask? "How did this team get to a Superbowl last yr?" 
There is something really wrong going on....we come out flat every week and takes a good half to get anything going on Offense

It's like the players don't trust the coaches and know they're inept.

(10-10-2022, 10:25 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: That math broke down to this...

Go for it and succeed - 59% chance of winning
Go for it and fail - 31% chance of winning
Kick the FG - 41% chance of winning

Conversion probability - 46%

It's impossible to say that the FG here removes Tucker from the equation. You're assuming that the game goes the exact same way, and it probably wouldn't have. The 4th down decisions are always going to inherently be controversial. You'll have fans like you, who are very conservative in what they want to do. On the flip side, you have fans who are going to be aggressive in what they want to do.

Both sides are going to swear you're the dumbest bastard alive, regardless of the decision. Most fans are also completely ignorant to what they are talking about, but that's a different conversation. It's always easy to criticize with hindsight. If ZT took the FG and still lost, there's fans arguing the exact opposite of what you're doing now. 

Too many variables, maybe the game flows differently or not. , but doesn't seem to take into account that NEITHER OFFENSE was moving the ball well. I'd still rather force Tucker to make 2 FG's cause our D was doing a good chance at keeping them out of the EZ.

Again, on the road in a tight game, you take the points and the lead. Put the pressure on the other team. Don't let the momentum shift and get the crowd back into it. At home, you can get away with that, because the crowd will still have your back.

I love to see teams going for it, but only if necessary and we weren't at that point yet.

(10-10-2022, 10:42 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: The outside variables don't matter. It's based on probability of winning the game based on situational decisions. 

You are telling me that you wouldn't go with the option that gave you a higher probability of winning the game? That's just absurd to me. 

There’s no way to prove that going for it gave a higher probability of winning the game. Do you seriously believe that the shovel gave us a better chance to win than a field goal?

(10-10-2022, 09:38 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Good post. It’s so frustrating seeing guys like Jefferson go off for 150 yards every damn week. With an improved OL (on paper) Taylor has absolutely no excuse to be this bad. He has two top 5 picks, and 2/3 of that historic LSU offense ffs.

Does anyone think this team is 2-3 with Sean Payton?

I don’t think this team is 2-3 with Walter Payton.

Hindsight being what it is, it would have been great to take the points.

Not going to lie, though, I immediately thought that they needed to go for it when that 4th down came up.

At that point, I trusted the defense due to what they had been doing all game. I would not have bet that the Ravens would put together a drive like they did after that play failed.

The decision not to go for it is about the last thing I'm upset with Zac over. The dumb and repeated gadget plays were the worst. They should have tried to pound it in with Mixon. The shovel pass is a very risky play anywhere on the field. Tyler Boyd is not a quarterback.