(02-05-2023, 12:36 AM)TheFan Wrote: So using a 3 game sample size is enough to conclusively make an opinion invalid but taking out 25% of a sample size is valid...makes sense lol 

I think he could become a mid #1, so maybe 12-24 range. I said he's not a top tier meaning close to top 5. And if you think he's a top 5 receiver idk what to tell you. 

In post 46 of this thread you questioned a dude that stated Tee would want to be paid like a "top WR" and stated he's low 1/ upper 2. 

You've been given examples of how he could easily be a top receiver including his being Top 3 in the NFL this year in yards per target (minimum 100).

Now you've changed that top Top 5 and asserted you don't know "what to tell folks"

The kid could absolutely be a Top WR in the NFL and he damn sure ain't a "high 2"

(02-05-2023, 12:36 AM)TheFan Wrote: So using a 3 game sample size is enough to conclusively make an opinion invalid but taking out 25% of a sample size is valid...makes sense lol 

I think he could become a mid #1, so maybe 12-24 range. I said he's not a top tier meaning close to top 5. And if you think he's a top 5 receiver idk what to tell you. 

You realize that with less catches and less targets he was only 13 yards behind Chase this year right?

So the less games for Chase isn't really in discussion since he had more targets and more catches.

When given the chance to be the guy, he's going to excel and shine.

(02-05-2023, 12:51 AM)bfine32 Wrote: In post 46 of this thread you questioned a dude that stated Tee would want to be paid like a "top WR" and stated he's low 1/ upper 2. 

You've been given examples of how he could easily be a top receiver including his being Top 3 in the NFL this year in yards per target (minimum 100).

Now you've changed that top Top 5 and asserted you don't know "what to tell folks"

The kid could absolutely be a Top WR in the NFL and he damn sure ain't a "high 2"

Yea, that was my fault for undervaluing him. I changed my opinion and agree a top 2 is an unfair assessment for him. I still don't think he is or will be a top 5 receiver and if he's wanting to be paid as such I don't think we should do that.

So in that regard I still agree with my initial post that I don't think we should pay him like one or that he's earne top 5 WR money yet like the poster claimed. I really hope I'm wrong for him though. I like Tee, his attitude, and the way he plays the game. 

I’m no expert on roster management by far but I think it’s more like a business than you think. I think they allocate certain dollar amounts to different position groups. The agents for these guys aren’t fun to deal with. Some are so focused on their reputation and the almighty dollar that the human element isn’t realized. My opinion is the client is who they need to please.

I think there's a lot of evidence that points to Tee being a number 1 wr, maybe even a top 5 wr in the league at some point.

Our perception is skewed because we somehow managed to have a player of his caliber on the same roster as a guy that has the potential to be not only the best in the league, but one of the best of all time in Chase. The ease and immediacy of Ja'marr's success is something that wouldn't be an exaggeration to call generational. He has the potential to be a Rice/Moss caliber receiver.

As for Tee, he's excelled even without Chase. He stepped seamlessly into the number 1 role when we were all freaking out about the season being over as news of Chase's injury got out.

His size and physicality is rare. The dude is 6-4 plus and nearly 220. Guys like that aren't falling off of trees even at the pro level. You basically have Evans, Metcalf, and Mike Williams out there. Some of those guys are bigger than Tee, but I'd argue that Tee is the superior athlete.

On the field, he not only makes great catches. He's a bully as a downfield blocker vs overmatched defensive backs and he's more than willing to mix it up.

I wouldn't be surprised if the guy was a top ten or top 5 wr on a consistent basis in his prime.

The problem for the Bengals isn't whether or not he's a true number 1. He is. The problem is that it's nearly impossible to pay 2 number 1 receivers the money they deserve along with a top 5 quarterback.

(02-05-2023, 12:54 PM)samhain Wrote: The problem for the Bengals isn't whether or not he's a true number 1.  He is.  The problem is that it's nearly impossible to pay 2 number 1 receivers the money they deserve along with a top 5 quarterback.

Agreed. I think that's what it will come down to. I would imagine, given it's their 1st contract after rookie deal they're going to want big money. Much like Pratt or Wilson it will come down to who they think is better/more important and I think the Bengals will go with Chase. 

Maybe Higgins, Burrow, and Chase really do all love it here and playing together so they take a little less each but that would be very surprising to me. Cutting Mixon makes this a little more possible.

(02-05-2023, 12:54 PM)samhain Wrote: I think there's a lot of evidence that points to Tee being a number 1 wr, maybe even a top 5 wr in the league at some point.

Our perception is skewed because we somehow managed to have a player of his caliber on the same roster as a guy that has the potential to be not only the best in the league, but one of the best of all time in Chase.  The ease and immediacy of Ja'marr's success is something that wouldn't be an exaggeration to call generational.  He has the potential to be a Rice/Moss caliber receiver.

This label is kind of off base at this point. Moss and Rice literally were heads and shoulders above any other WR in the league at the same time as them. Chase is a great talent, but if the Vikings offered Justin Jefferson straight up for Chase you'd be foolish not to take that deal. Jefferson is showing that he is the top WR in the league and the guy who might be this eras great WR.

1400 as a rookie, then 1600 plus and now 1800 plus yards. That guy is remarkable, and if he was with Burrow or Mahomes or Allen... it would be record shattering.

(02-05-2023, 07:17 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: This label is kind of off base at this point. Moss and Rice literally were heads and shoulders above any other WR in the league at the same time as them. Chase is a great talent, but if the Vikings offered Justin Jefferson straight up for Chase you'd be foolish not to take that deal. Jefferson is showing that he is the top WR in the league and the guy who might be this eras great WR.

1400 as a rookie, then 1600 plus and now 1800 plus yards. That guy is remarkable, and if he was with Burrow or Mahomes or Allen... it would be record shattering.

It’s not really “off base” at all.

Ja'Marr Chase joins HOF Randy Moss as the only players in NFL history to have 3,000+ receiving yards & 25+ receiving TD in their first 2 seasons (including playoffs). pic.twitter.com/IOnKJZjRDB

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 22, 2023

Jefferson is obviously a terrific WR, and probably WR1 in the league right now, but to me the biggest difference is Chase finds the end zone more. A lot more. Jefferson is the better route runner, but Chase so often just makes plays out of nothing (which has little to do with the QB).

Jefferson also saw a ridiculous amount of targets this season (184). For comparison - Chase saw 128 last year when he played a full season (134 this season in 12 games). Something tells me if Chase was seeing that many targets he’d be putting up triple crown numbers (something JJ didn’t do because of his TD’s).

(02-05-2023, 07:17 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: This label is kind of off base at this point. Moss and Rice literally were heads and shoulders above any other WR in the league at the same time as them. Chase is a great talent, but if the Vikings offered Justin Jefferson straight up for Chase you'd be foolish not to take that deal. Jefferson is showing that he is the top WR in the league and the guy who might be this eras great WR.

1400 as a rookie, then 1600 plus and now 1800 plus yards. That guy is remarkable, and if he was with Burrow or Mahomes or Allen... it would be record shattering.

To be fair, Steve Largent and James Lofton were Rice's competition when he entered the league.  During his time with SF the WR group in the NFL was devoid of super stars.
Eddie Brown was a top 3 WR one year, there was Duper & Clayton.  I guess Drew Hill?
Sterling Sharp and Andre Reed came in during the early 90's, then Michael Irvin, Chris Carter.
Towards the end of his time at SF Tim Brown, Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison had taken over, Rice had the ACL and I dont think he was ever in the Top 10 again...

As great as Rice was he did not have nearly the competition we see today with JJ, Hill, Adams, Diggs, Brown, Waddle, Kupp, DK, Chase and Tee.

Moss on the other hand faced serious competition.  

Speaking of Ja’Marr and Tee

Ja'Marr Chase just scored another TD and threw the ball to Tee Higgins in the stands ?? #Bengals #ProBowlGames (via @boutdat_23) pic.twitter.com/3ckasRv1KC

— Cincinnati ? (@CincyProblems) February 5, 2023

(02-05-2023, 07:50 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It’s not really “off base” at all.

Ja'Marr Chase joins HOF Randy Moss as the only players in NFL history to have 3,000+ receiving yards & 25+ receiving TD in their first 2 seasons (including playoffs). pic.twitter.com/IOnKJZjRDB

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 22, 2023

Jefferson is obviously a terrific WR, and probably WR1 in the league right now, but to me the biggest difference is Chase finds the end zone more. A lot more. Jefferson is the better route runner, but Chase so often just makes plays out of nothing (which has little to do with the QB).

Jefferson also saw a ridiculous amount of targets this season (184). For comparison - Chase saw 128 last year when he played a full season (134 this season in 12 games). Something tells me if Chase was seeing that many targets he’d be putting up triple crown numbers (something JJ didn’t do because of his TD’s).

And Chase is a wide receiver in a strong safety's body or a linebacker's body as far as strength and I would never ever give up that chemistry that he has with Joe.

(02-05-2023, 08:53 PM)higgy100 Wrote: And Chase is a wide receiver in a strong safety's body or a linebacker's body as far as strength and I would never ever give up that chemistry that he has with Joe.

I always say RB, but the point remains the same. Dude’s legs look like straight up tree trunks. You could say Jefferson would have the same chemistry with Burrow, and you’d be right to a degree, but we saw which guy put up the bigger numbers on that historic 2019 team.

The way I see it, the Bengals have at least 2 more years before Burrow's or Chase's huge extensions kick in. Even if Burrow signs a 10 year, 500 million dollar contract this off season, his cap hit in 2023 and 2024 will likely be relatively small. For context, Mahomes signed his extension before the 2020 season and his 2020 and 2021 cap hits (his 4th and 5th years in the league) were 5.4M and 7.4M, respectively. Similarly, Josh Allen's cap hits in 2021 and 2022, his 4th and 5th years in the league, following signing his extension before the 2021 season, were 10.2M and 16.4M.

Their 6th year, in both cases, was where the huge money came in, 39.8M for Allen in 2023 and 35.8M for Mahomes in 2022.

So Joe Burrow's contract extension will likely be signed this off season, but it likely won't affect our cap situation until 2025.

I imagine the same will be the case for Chase's contract not kicking in until 2026.

For that reason, I truly believe we will have Higgins in Cincinnati for an absolute minimum of 2 more years. He is under his rookie contract in 2023 and we can franchise tag him for a relative bargain in 2024.

People are saying if we are offered a first round pick and a 2nd/3rd round pick (similar compensation as the Chiefs, Titans and Packers got for Hill, Brown and Adams, respectively), it would be a good deal to accept it. The problem is those situations are all different from what the Bengals have.

Hill was in the final year of his contract in 2022 and Patrick Mahomes' big numbers had already officially kicked in. They already had a highly paid receiver under contract (Kelce) and Hill was probably being pretty demanding behind the scenes, so they traded him.

AJ Brown was straight up holding out, so the Titans had to take what they could get since he wasn't willing to accept their contract offers.

And Adams literally took less money to not play for the Packers. He was also done.

Higgins wants to stay in Cincinnati and the Bengals do not respond to hold outs. Look at how they treated Bates. He threatened to hold out if he didn't sign a contract. He said he wouldn't play under the FT. But the Bengals waited him out and he ultimately played.

Carson Palmer threatened to retire if he wasn't traded, so the Bengals said "sounds good. Retire then."

They do not respond to strong arming.

So, in my opinion, if a team comes out and just blows our socks off with like 2 firsts, 2 day 2 picks for Higgins, sure take it. But if the best they can get is a measley 1st round pick (which, at best, you hope can just replace Higgins' production) and a 2nd round pick who'd probably be a depth lineman, there's no way the Bengals take that.

The next 2 seasons are the widest open window for the Super bowl because they are able to stock up on a ton of free agents with Burrow, Chase and Higgins on rookie contracts (Higgins for 1 of the 2 years, anyway). They won't compromise that Super Bowl window for a mere "meh" deal.

Higgins will be here until 2025.

I really don't want to see Tee off this team but suspect it's a likely outcome since Burrow and Chase are going to secure big deals.

How can Duke and Zac manage the loss of Tee into a positive situation?

Maybe the team can improve the running game and embrace mixing the offense up. Burrow to Chase could be quite dangerous if there was a real threat in the backfield to run the ball for big yardage plays.... anyhow, I'm just babbling fantasy-GM ideas.

If Tee is gone, there has to be a solid plan to retool to remain competitive.

(02-06-2023, 12:11 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: For context, Mahomes signed his extension before the 2020 season and his 2020 and 2021 cap hits (his 4th and 5th years in the league) were 5.4M and 7.4M, respectively.


For that reason, I truly believe we will have Higgins in Cincinnati for an absolute minimum of 2 more years. He is under his rookie contract in 2023 and we can franchise tag him for a relative bargain in 2024.

Mahomes listed cap hit in 2021 is misleading. He had a $21m roster bonus turned into a signing bonus before that season, allowing them to clear up $17.3m in cap space. So his original 2021 cap hit was ~$25m. Not a roster-breaking number, but much much higher than the $7.4m that he ended up with.

Theoretically they could have Higgins for 2 more years, sure. That is assuming he's willing to play in 2023 for $3m, and is then willing to play in 2024 for the franchise tag with no future guarantees or assurances. Even if he's forced to play from threat of fines or loss of a year of service, will he actually be bringing his best, or will he be making business decisions on the field? You just have to look at Jessie Bates to see that a player can still "play" for you, but not bring his A game. All the while being a bit malcontent. They have the same agent.

(02-03-2023, 03:33 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I'm open to either possibility.

On one hand we should be able to get a high draft pick or more for Tee.
We could use these picks to get an elite pass rusher or OT (and have those players on rookie deals for 4years).
Lose Tee and gain an elite pass rusher or OT and our team is better in my opinion.
Lose Tee and gain a standout corner and rotational dlineman or WR and we are better.

On the other hand it's certainly nice to have Tee on our team. I like the guy and he brings a lot to the table.

Well unless we grab one in FA we will need another WR

Help me understand. Has Higgins or his agent given even a hint that he wanted to play somewhere else? Has anyone on the Benglas’ side given a remote hint or made a statement regarding HIggins not being resigned?
When/if any of that happens, wake me up. Until then, all of this speculation is nothing more than noise and hand wringing over nothing.

(02-06-2023, 12:08 PM)Graphicguy Wrote: Help me understand.  Has Higgins or his agent given even a hint that he wanted to play somewhere else?  Has anyone on the Benglas’ side given a remote hint or made a statement regarding HIggins not being resigned?
When/if any of that happens, wake me up.  Until then, all of this speculation is nothing more than noise and hand wringing over nothing.

higgins has finished Year 3 so its time to look at an Extension...   Word is hes asking for a LARGE sum probly over 20mil per year.

Hes still under contract next year.   So speculation is trade him while you can before you just let him walk in Free agency.

(02-06-2023, 12:08 PM)Graphicguy Wrote: Help me understand.  Has Higgins or his agent given even a hint that he wanted to play somewhere else?  Has anyone on the Benglas’ side given a remote hint or made a statement regarding HIggins not being resigned?
When/if any of that happens, wake me up.  Until then, all of this speculation is nothing more than noise and hand wringing over nothing.

There is going to be noise because we are now in the process of attempting to extend him so it makes sense people will be discussing.

(02-06-2023, 12:38 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: higgins has finished Year 3 so its time to look at an Extension...   Word is hes asking for a LARGE sum probly over 20mil per year.

Hes still under contract next year.   So speculation is trade him while you can before you just let him walk in Free agency.

I'm not sure there has been any "word" yet as to Higgins wanting any particular amount.  Someone taking Dehner's twitter post of context isn't really a reliable source.