(02-07-2023, 02:03 PM)ochocincos Wrote: To defend Tee some, I think he'd be more in the 1200-1400 range if he got as many opportunities as the guys ahead of him.

The numbers tend to reflect that actually.
Higgins averaged 9.44 yards per target this year (total yards divided by number of targets).
If you multiply that by 130 targets (same range as Chase, Cooper, and DeVonta Smith), it'd be just over 1200 yards.
If you jump that up to 150 targets (same range as Diggs, Lamb, Kelce, St. Brown), it'd be over 1400 yards.

So I do think he would look better as a true WR1 on another team.
So a team interested in him would (should) plan to use him like a true WR1 if they're going to give up a 1st rounder (especially early one) for him, as they should expect Top 10 WR capability.
He just is going to be more limited in an offense with Ja'Marr Chase.

Id say having Chase on the Other side Helped him more than hurt him.

(02-07-2023, 11:08 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I just read through this entire thread and all I gotta say is...

You people are insane if you think re-signing Higgins long term is a good idea or if you think it's in the realm of possibility that it COULD happen.

I honestly think the organization knows it won't happen and doesn't even have much interest in it happening. There's a few factors playing into it:

The hidden value of having an elite QB like Burrow is that he doesn't NEED two number 1, elite recievers. Having that is a complete LUXURY. Joe is good enough to cook without having an "elite" WR corps...as long as the OL is good. Look what happened when Chase was out half the year. Our offense flourished because the OL was playing great. Joe was just getting the ball to any WR that was open. He made Trent Irwin look like a stud.

Championship rosters with QBs on huge conracts aren't built through investing 1/3 of your cap dollars into the WR position group. It's built through investing your money into your offensive and defensive lines and drafting speed skill guys through the draft. Look at the Chiefs and Rams - the blueprint is there. They invested their cap space into OL and DL and it brought them a Super Bowl. The Bengals literally lost the Super Bowl two years in a row because they got out played in the trenches. It's just so imporant.

We all love Tee, but his production is replacable via the draft or FA. He's a thousand yard reciever. The Chiefs signed JuJu for 4 million this off-season and he gave them similar production. Same number of catches, 100 less yards.

I'm sorry and hate to be the guy to bring this all crashing down, but it's just not going to happen. I'm going to hate to say I told you so, but there is just no chance. Don't be surprised if we take WR EARLY in the draft this year.

I agree that we likely should not re-sign Higgins long term. Not unless we see one of these players take a reeeeeaaaaallllllly nice hometown discount (which is not fair to expect of them). Burrow and Chase are going to eat up a lot of cap and investing half your cap in three players on offense is likely not a sustainable way to build your team. 

But I think the discussion (or at least the discussion I've been a part of) is whether or not we trade him this off season or if we keep him for 2023 on his rookie contract and potentially franchise tag him for 2024.

In my view, 2023 and 2024 are our team's best shots at winning a Super Bowl. Obviously, the window will always be open as long as Joe Burrow is here, but for the next two years, Burrow will be relatively affordable, which means we can go all in and keep players we won't be able to keep in 2025 and sign players we won't be able to sign in 2025. Do we need two elite receivers to be successful? No. But it sure helps. A typical 2nd round rookie likely isn't making that touchdown catch against KC, after all. 

I would like to see the Bengals do one of two things:

1. Keep Higgins for his rookie deal and, assuming he isn't threatening hold outs and all that toxic stuff, franchise tag him for 2024 to really maximize this window. If he walks in 2025 and all we get is a 3rd round comp pick, I would consider that worth missing out on a potential ~20th pick first rounder, assuming we don't bottom out in 2023 and 2024.
2. Trade him for an absolute King's Ransom. Not a 1st and a 3rd. Aim higher. We have the bargaining power here, we shouldn't settle for a "fair" return. Blow the other team out of the water in terms of value, or embrace option 1.

(02-07-2023, 12:48 PM)PCB Bengal Fan Wrote: That's why the O-line is so important, give Joe time & we won't have to worry about double or triple coverage on Chase.

Triple coverage on Chase and you’re looking at a whole lot of Burrow INTs if Higgins is gone. Opposing teams will take their chances with Boyd in the slot and RBs and TEs as pass catchers by tripling Chase.

There isn’t enough time in the pocket to move down the field consistently if Chase can’t get open.

That’s why Higgins is so important. There’s nobody in the upcoming draft I feel we can get our hands on that will in any way get close to Higgins production.

(02-07-2023, 02:14 PM)Graphicguy Wrote: Triple coverage on Chase and you’re looking at a whole lot of Burrow INTs if Higgins is gone.  Opposing teams will take their chances with Boyd in the slot and RBs and TEs as pass catchers by tripling Chase.

There isn’t enough time in the pocket to move down the field consistently if Chase can’t get open.

That’s why Higgins is so important.  There’s nobody in the upcoming draft I feel we can get our hands on that will in any way get close to Higgins production.

Obviously having both Higgins and Chase is more trying on a defense but this narrative that our passing offense would no longer exist without Higgins is a serious slight against Chase.

JJ doesn't have a great WR2, nor does Davonte Adams, Diggs, or Lamb.  How many tiers is Chase below these guys?

I'd like to keep Tee but it wont destroy our offense and no way do defenses triple cover Chase every play, if they do and we cant capitalize on that then why are we even discussing paying Burrow top money?

(02-04-2023, 04:13 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Trading Tee would be stupid. He came in with Joe and will end up being an all time great here, potential HoFer, having a career with a QB like Joe to go with his own talent.

We have him this year. Can tag him. Then can tag him again. Before Chase is a free agent. Why would we be in a rush to get rid of a top WR?

When was the last time we tagged a player 2 years in a row?

I don't think this has ever happened and would cost like 45+ million dollars. Why not just extend Tee if you are going to pay 
him that much? It isn't about getting rid of a top WR, it is about getting something for him in return if he is going to leave...

I would trade Tee to the Texans and swap pick positions of #29 to #13 and each others second round.

(02-07-2023, 01:35 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: With Tee growing up a Bengal fan. I see them working it out regardless of agent. Bates should be franchised and traded however.

I don't see any team trading for Bates on a second francise tag, which will cost them near $17M (I think) if a long term deal cannot be agreed upon.  I think that he's just going to hit the open market and get what he can, where he can.

As for Higgins, sure you hope that they can agree on an extension that makes him able to be afforded for a 2nd contract, but how willing will he be to take less than he could likely get elsewhere? I mean, on most other teams he's going to be THE man, with HUGE pumped up stats and a regular in Pro Bowl voting each season.

You can hope for the guy to take less than he's worth to stay here and continue to play second fiddle, but I wouldn't count on it.

Theoretically we'd have 2 more years with Tee (including the tag). I'd much rather trade Boyd and try to keep him. Having a bunch of draft picks is what we all love going into the draft, but a trade likely comes next year while he is under the tag. I don't see it this year at all given the Front Office, but also the state of the Franchise. Hill was much older when KC traded him, as was Adams. Brown (Eagles) was young, but the Titans were set to rebuild, and if they weren't you see the extra picks didn't help them.

(02-07-2023, 05:07 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I don't see any team trading for Bates on a second francise tag, which will cost them near $17M (I think) if a long term deal cannot be agreed upon.  I think that he's just going to hit the open market and get what he can, where he can.

As for Higgins, sure you hope that they can agree on an extension that makes him able to be afforded for a 2nd contract, but how willing will he be to take less than he could likely get elsewhere? I mean, on most other teams he's going to be THE man, with HUGE pumped up stats and a regular in Pro Bowl voting each season.

You can hope for the guy to take less than he's worth to stay here and continue to play second fiddle, but I wouldn't count on it.

15 million for Bates

Trading Tee is tough to imagine, but the Patriots won 6 Super Bowls while constantly trading away some of their best players. Guys like Lawyer Milloy. Richard Seymour. Deion Branch. One of their best o-linemen (can't remember his name).

Teams like the Chiefs have traded away guys like Tyreek.

The best teams have to think both short and long term. Our window is Joe's whole career. I'm not saying that trading Tee is definitely the play, but you have to give it some thought.

Chase and Higgins remind me a lot of Fitzgerald and Boldin.

(02-07-2023, 03:55 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Again, which end are you benching for your TJ Watt?

Every draft slot has value attached to it.  And as of today Higgins is a WR2, possibly a mid WR1, and that is no where near the value of a Top 5 pick.  

If that’s the case I’m not trading Higgins. Case closed.

That’s where I would set the value at to teams looking to trade for him. Tee is better or equal value to a top 5 wr pick because he’s proven in the nfl.


You can never have too many pass rushers. A healthy Hendrickson on one side and Tj watt on the other would be elite as ****. It’s more valuable to have an elite pass rush than to have two elite wide receivers with a weak offensive line.

I’m not expecting a top 5 pick to be on TJ Watts level, but the batting average seems to be pretty good with top 5 picks on pass rushers.

On a side note, I believe an elite OT is more valuable than an elite wr2. If there’s one in the top 5 worth grabbing that would make sense…

Also, if a team is trading for Higgins it’s to be wr1 not wr2.

And I’m by no means suggesting we should trade higgins. I’m just stating what the parameters would be for me thinking about the trade: top 5 pick at the least.

(02-07-2023, 11:21 AM)ochocincos Wrote: That feels like a stretch to me.
Higgins was 20th in total yards this past season, behind Ja'Marr Chase who played in 4 fewer games.
Higgins could be a WR1 and possibly Top 10 receiver on a team, but him not being the WR1 affects his production on the Bengals.
He was the only guy in the Top 20 who was targeted less than 110 times.

With that said, you have guys like DeVonta Smith and Terry McLaurin who were Top 10 in receiving production this past season.
Are they worthy of a Top 5 pick?
I'd argue no.

If you wanted to argue you'd only trade Higgins for a 1st rounder, that probably is logical, but I have a hard time thinking it's "Only Top 5 Pick or Bust."

I look at Higgins like a stock. Why would I sell him now when I feel like he’s better than his value? If I can’t get fair value right now I wouldn’t trade him. If his stock goes up to where I view it as fair value, I would entertain the trade.

If we trade him for what you guys are suggesting his value is at, we’ll look like idiots within a year of the trade going through.

(02-04-2023, 04:13 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Trading Tee would be stupid. He came in with Joe and will end up being an all time great here, potential HoFer, having a career with a QB like Joe to go with his own talent.

We have him this year. Can tag him. Then can tag him again. Before Chase is a free agent. Why would we be in a rush to get rid of a top WR?

Tee will be a really good WR wherever he is but unless he averages 1K for about 13 years, he's not going to the HoF. That's no knock, he just hasn't really shown that type of potential. 

If Chase stays healthy, that dude has a chance at the hall. 

No one is in a rush to get rid of him, but if you care more about the overall success of the Cincinnati Bengals, it makes sense, with what they already have, to get capital in return and keep your SB window open. Tee is a grown man and he'll keep the friendships that he has on the team for a lifetime. He needs to do what's in his best interest and the Bengals FO needs to do what's in the Bengals best interest. If keeping Tee hinders them in other areas, then that's a no from me dawg. I want the outcome that is the best for getting rings on players fingers and trophies in the case. 

There is zero precedent for giving a bag to your elite QB and 2 top WRs and being able get a ring. If there was no cap and teams could keep whoever they drafted, as long as they could afford to pay them, hell yeah, sign the dude. But it just doesn't work that way.

Though it looks more realistic that the Tyreke trade model fits the team better, it's not certain.

Trying to win now (and later) looks like trying to keep a lot of your 2024 FA's and not being stuck letting a good one go when you tag an unhappy Tee.

Then again, with some of the defense hitting their mid-late prime and some premium pay positions (Hendrickson and Awuzie) negotiations could get tough. So I'd love to have young defenders in hand from a Tee trade but Tee is a known quantity that makes them special. If they get Tee to sign, they can still mitigate spending at other positions but they'll have to draft well on both lines. Logan is still a must, along with Burrow so they know his salary structure.

(02-07-2023, 09:41 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: If that’s the case I’m not trading Higgins. Case closed.

That’s where I would set the value at to teams looking to trade for him. Tee is better or equal value to a top 5 wr pick because he’s proven in the nfl.


You can never have too many pass rushers. A healthy Hendrickson on one side and Tj watt on the other would be elite as ****. It’s more valuable to have an elite pass rush than to have two elite wide receivers with a weak offensive line.

I’m not expecting a top 5 pick to be on TJ Watts level, but the batting average seems to be pretty good with top 5 picks on pass rushers.

On a side note, I believe an elite OT is more valuable than an elite wr2. If there’s one in the top 5 worth grabbing that would make sense…

Also, if a team is trading for Higgins it’s to be wr1 not wr2.

And I’m by no means suggesting we should trade higgins. I’m just stating what the parameters would be for me thinking about the trade: top 5 pick at the least.

So you truly do not understand draft value?   Tee is not remotely close to a Top 5 pick, that is beyond nonsensical.  There are 15 teams that Tee might not even be the #1 WR today.

Top 5 batting average of DE's?
Last year's draft had 3 DE's, only one had more than 4 sacks.
None were taken in the Top 5 in 2021
2020 had one player and he has 9 sacks in 3 years.
2019 had 2, one was Nick Bosa - home run, the other? Clelin Ferrill, averaged 2 sacks the last 4 years...
2018 had one edge guy, 4 sack average over the last 4 years...
2017 had one guy, averaged less than 2 sacks a year the last 6 years.

There is a reason TJ Watt is a future HOFer, those guys dont just happen every year.  And whatever guy you would get this spring and play over Sam you are sitting $10M on the bench ($30M over the next 3 years).

I just don't see it?

(02-07-2023, 11:54 PM)casear2727 Wrote: So you truly do not understand draft value?   Tee is not remotely close to a Top 5 pick, that is beyond nonsensical.  There are 15 teams that Tee might not even be the #1 WR today.

Top 5 batting average of DE's?
Last year's draft had 3 DE's, only one had more than 4 sacks.
None were taken in the Top 5 in 2021
2020 had one player and he has 9 sacks in 3 years.
2019 had 2, one was Nick Bosa - home run, the other? Clelin Ferrill, averaged 2 sacks the last 4 years...
2018 had one edge guy, 4 sack average over the last 4 years...
2017 had one guy, averaged less than 2 sacks a year the last 6 years.

There is a reason TJ Watt is a future HOFer, those guys dont just happen every year.  And whatever guy you would get this spring and play over Sam you are sitting $10M on the bench ($30M over the next 3 years).

I just don't see it?

What are you arguing exactly? Mind you I'm not trying to argue. 
I keep saying the same thing (and it seems simple to understand), but I'm not sure if you do.
I wouldn't trade Tee for anything less than a top 5 pick.
I like the potential to get a top pass rusher, olineman, corner, or other playmaker.
Tee's potential is an elite WR--and he's not far off. I'm not willing to trade that away and get fleeced.

What would you accept for Tee?

I understand what you are saying in terms of ranking Tee's draft value. 

Let me ask you this:
Do managers not make decisions based on how they internally value players compared to what the market says?
I remember a pretty nice trade involving a former QB where Mike Brown held out for an amazing deal.
Why?
Because he valued his QB that high.

Is it so far out of comprehension that Tee's value internally could be higher than you guys are suggesting?
Granted I'm not even saying that it is.

All I'm saying is I value him higher than what you say the market values him as.

..

As far as DE track record in the top 5. Good point. Nothing is for sure in the draft. 
That said, of the elite pass rushers in the league, there are quite a few top 5 picks on that list. 
It's a good spot to draft a top DE or OT or DT.

So you are saying you would not trade Tee for a top 5 pick? 

What kind of offer would you accept for Tee?

(02-08-2023, 12:29 AM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: What are you arguing exactly? Mind you I'm not trying to argue. 
I keep saying the same thing (and it seems simple to understand), but I'm not sure if you do.
I wouldn't trade Tee for anything less than a top 5 pick.
I like the potential to get a top pass rusher, olineman, corner, or other playmaker.
Tee's potential is an elite WR--and he's not far off. I'm not willing to trade that away and get fleeced.

What would you accept for Tee?

I understand what you are saying in terms of ranking Tee's draft value. 

Let me ask you this:
Do managers not make decisions based on how they internally value players compared to what the market says?
I remember a pretty nice trade involving a former QB where Mike Brown held out for an amazing deal.
Why?
Because he valued his QB that high.

Is it so far out of comprehension that Tee's value internally could be higher than you guys are suggesting?
Granted I'm not even saying that it is.

All I'm saying is I value him higher than what you say the market values him as.

..

As far as DE track record in the top 5. Good point. Nothing is for sure in the draft. 
That said, of the elite pass rushers in the league, there are quite a few top 5 picks on that list. 
It's a good spot to draft a top DE or OT or DT.

So you are saying you would not trade Tee for a top 5 pick? 

What kind of offer would you accept for Tee?

I dont think Burrow is a good comparison for a number of reasons:
1.  Without a great QB it doesnt matter how many other great players you have.
2.  Burrow was the Heisman winner, QB1, coming off the best collegiate season a QB ever had...


Tee is not the best WR on his team and most likely wouldnt be WR1 on 10- 15 teams...

I dont think any team would ever trade a Top 5 pick for Tee.

I would trade Tee if he wanted a ridiculous amount of money that would truly hinder us in the future.
Top 5 pick, yes.
#1 and #2 yes.
#1 and #3 or #4 yes.

I would much rather tag and trade Tee next year than do it this season though.

(02-08-2023, 12:47 AM)casear2727 Wrote: I dont think Burrow is a good comparison for a number of reasons:
1.  Without a great QB it doesnt matter how many other great players you have.
2.  Burrow was the Heisman winner, QB1, coming off the best collegiate season a QB ever had...


Tee is not the best WR on his team and most likely wouldnt be WR1 on 10- 15 teams...

I dont think any team would ever trade a Top 5 pick for Tee.

I would trade Tee if he wanted a ridiculous amount of money that would truly hinder us in the future.
Top 5 pick, yes.
#1 and #2 yes.
#1 and #3 or #4 yes.

I would much rather tag and trade Tee next year than do it this season though.

I agree. I don't think a team will trade a top 5 pick for Tee. 

I think Tee's value will be higher next year. 

I agree that we should wait until his value is higher if we are going to trade him. We get the added benefit of getting his services at a discount for an additional year.

I'm not so sure we can't work out a way to sign him, though. Will it hamper our ability to put a good offensive line out there? Probably and we'll see what the results will be if they do indeed sign him. 

I don't like seeing the team give up on players that have been amazing picks for us. It's ideal to have our top players stick around for a second contract unless they are a running back (or this case backup receiver).

The issue is that Tee could be a great number one receiver for a lot of teams that don't have an elite WR already. Having two legit number 1s on your team does present matchup problems and has value. It puts the team in a tough spot because you don't want to let that talent go, but its going to cost a lot to keep him.

It's possible that they can get him locked up for 4 years and then trade him.

I don't want to give him up for a mid round pick because those are dart throws if you look at our history. Top 5 picks are closer to sure things. 
Tee is worth more than a dart throw in my mind.

..
I wasn't referring to Burrow in my previous post. I was referring to when we traded Carson for multiple picks.

(02-07-2023, 02:33 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Obviously having both Higgins and Chase is more trying on a defense but this narrative that our passing offense would no longer exist without Higgins is a serious slight against Chase.

JJ doesn't have a great WR2, nor does Davonte Adams, Diggs, or Lamb.  How many tiers is Chase below these guys?

I'd like to keep Tee but it wont destroy our offense and no way do defenses triple cover Chase every play, if they do and we cant capitalize on that then why are we even discussing paying Burrow top money?

Personally, given the QB we have, aside from Chase, Higgins is the most important skill player we have on offense. You want to cut Mixon? I’m OK with that. We can pick up another RB in the draft, or roll with Perrine..

Want to let Hurst walk? Wouldn’t like it, but could live with it given this draft is rich with TEs.

But, letting Higgins walk or try to trade him for anything less than a 1 and 3 in the draft, no way-Jose. Sign him. Cut the RB and TE loose to afford him.