Alright, I am going to take a shot at a Roster Overview slash Free Agency & Draft Primer for the 2024 off-season.

This is gonna be a bear. I am going to start with an overall cap & roster analysis viwe from 30,000 feet thing. Then dial in on a position group by position group analysis. Will start with what I consider the higher priority groups (WR, DT/NT, OT, TE, CB) and then move on to medium (P, S, IOL, LB, RB) and low priority (QB, DE, PK, LS) groups.

I.  Important Off-Season Dates

1. 2/20: Can designate franchise & transition tags.
2. 2/27-3/4. Scouting combine in Indy.
3. 3/5: Franchise/transition tag deadline.
4. 3/11-3/13: FA negotiating period starts.
5. 3/13, 4 pm: all teams must be cap compliant.
6. 3/14, 4 pm: Can sign FAs, trades consumated, designate June 1 cuts, deadline for QOs to RFAs.
7. 4/19: Deadline for RFA's to sign offers.
8. 4/25-27: NFL Draft
---------

EDIT: The cap came in higher than expected, the post has been edited to reflect the $255.4 mil cap instead of the $242.5 mil estimate I used earlier. 


II.  Estimated Bengals Current Cap Space: Part I: $83,731,303.

A. Estimate Room
1. Estimated 2024 Cap: $255,400,000
2. 2023 Rollover: $10,766,741
----------------
3. Bengals Cap 2024: $266,166,741

B. Estimated Costs (Total)
1. Dead Money: $1,775,689
2. Signed Starters (19): $154,255,691
3. Signed Reserves (+10=29): $13,398,174
4. Signed Bubble (+8=37): $13,005,884
--------------
5. Total Signed (37): $182,435,438
--------------------
6. Take 1 Current Space: $83,731,303

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/

Now, astute readers will rightly point out that the $83 mil in cap space is not real. And I agree, it is less. It only accounts for 37 signed players, we need 53. It does not include some players we have signed (futures guys and guys whi never made the 63 last year). True. It does not account for draft picks, again true. And it does not account for the Practice Squad, which counts against the cap once the season starts. True.

For this exercise, I have chosen to assume all our signed guys who were on the 53 will be back. That won't be true. But for most, it will not move the cap math much/at all. If a larger salary guy is released, it won't happen until after FA starts or the draft is done, and the whole point of this is to guess at where we are now.

I did not count the Future's guys and Maxwell/Kirkland/Cochrane because I do not think they make the team. And if they do, they are displacing a higher salaried guy. The only guy with any dead money is Maxeell at $16,667. Signing them or cutting them does not negatively impact the cap. Further, they currently count as MIN salary guys, Practice Squad salaries are significantly lower. And will be counted off our available space shortly.

As will the Draft Picks. But the Draft is after FA. By the time the draft actually gets here, those guys are gonna be displacing signed guys on the roster,,not filling up empty spaces on a 53. The only pick that is likely to make significantly more than the guy he displaces is the Rd1 guy. Rd2 by a smidge, but Rd2-Rd7, in aggregate, likely save us money by displacing higher salaries players.

So, let's start to fill out the roster in a reasonable way and see what we have left, shall we? This is getting long, so I will break it up and make the follow up post in a bit.

Ya sabes como va a resultar?

(02-13-2024, 10:28 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ya sabes como va a resultar?

sabelotodo

Alright, sorry for the break, here is the resumption.

III.  Functional Cap Space Estimate: $65,922,908.

A.  Starting Point: $83,731,303 with 37 signed.


This includes:

1. Signed Starters (19): Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Cappa, Volson, Karras; Hendrickson, Hubbard, BJ Hill, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson, Robbins.

2. Signed Reserves (+10=29): C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis, Anderson (Inj).

3. 3. Signed Bubble (+8=37): Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill; Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott.

Every guy of those 37 was on the 53 last year and is signed for next. All the reserves (save Scott) and a few of the starters do not move the cap space needle if released & replaced (Robbins). And for the moment assume no big ticket releases happen, as that will likely happen after FA signings, or the draft, if at all.

We have 5 open starting slots at the moment (WR2, WR3, TE, RT, DT) and could also use some CB depth with Chido a FA and Ivey injured. Some spots will be filled by the draft. Let's go ultra conservative and say only the 1st rounder is a starter. So six minus 1 brings us back to 5. Let's build the roster to 48 and see how much cap space we have to fill the other big holes.

B. ERFA's (+2=39): $1,830,000. $81,901,303

These are Adomitis and Browning. They have to take an offer we give them and cannot negotiate with other teams. I can't imagine we let either walk. Could we give Browning a bit more? Sure. But we don't have to. Let's assume not. Both guys make the min ($915,000), so $1,830,000 here for both.

C. Rd1 Pick (+1=40): $2,740,995. $79,160,308

This pick will plug a hole, likely RT. Maybe DT, WR, CB, or TE. We could easily double dip at WR, DT, OL, TE, or DB in FA/draft.

D. Min FAs (+8=48): $8,930,000. $70,230,308

We have another 20 FAs from last year who were on the 53 at some point: Higgins, Reader, Jonah, Boyd, Chido, I. Smith, ADG, Hudson, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, T. Williams, Bailey, Bachie, Wilcox, and McCarron. All are UFAs save for possibly 3, who some sites list as RFA's (Hudson, Irwin, Wilcox). I think Hudson is UFA & the other two RFA, but I am by no means certain.

Regardless, I picked 8 guys I think we could get back for a min deal appropriate to their years of service and plugged that # in ($1,125,000 or $1,055,000) to get $8,930,000 for 8 guys: T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, Bailey, & Bachie. Which brings us to 48 guys with $70.2 mil in space.

I think Hudson & ADG may be worth slightly more, but perhaps not. If so, not by much. I would love to have both back. Particularly Hudson.

With $70.2 million, I think we can make a reasonable run at filling 5 spots, even spending big on two, or even 3 (Tee, DJ + big fish FA DT/DB). Heck, if we think a Day 2 pick can plug a hole or two, we could fit a more expensive Hudson/ADG in there as well if the 4th & 5th FA's are reasonably priced or if Hudson/ADG are in dospacement territory. That would put all the draft picks in displacement territory. In aggregate, Rd2 thru Rd7, we have 8 picks which will have a negligible cap effect.

Two more things.

E.  Practice Squad: $4,307,400. $65,922,908

In the offseason, the PS does not count vs the cap, as it does not really exist, you just can sign up to 90 guys. They count as min players up to that point (our Future's guys, for instance).

Guys with less than 2 seasons of accrued service make $12,500 per week on the PS. Times 18 weeks is $225,000. All 9 Future's guys are in this category (Jackson, Lassiter, Pryor, Gilliam, Kirkland, Gunter, D. Davis, Heyward, George), as are Cochran & Maxwell. As would any picks.

Vets on the PS make more (M. Thomas, S. Jimes, etc) and can negotiate between $16,800 and $21,300 per week. Or $302,400 to $383,400 per year.

Say we max out in vet PS guys at 6. Say they make the average of their possible salaries per week ,($19,050). $342,900 per year. Times 6. $2,057,400. Plus 10 guys at $225,000 is $2,250,000. For a total of $4,307,400.

That leaves us $65,922,908 with a full PS & 8 draft picks, & FA to fill out the roster. Actually, 5 open PS spits to be filled, but those will likely be displaced guys.

This hypothetical roster would be:

Offense = 20
QB: Burrow, Browning (ERFA)
RB: Mixon, C. Brown, Evans, T. Williams (UFA)
WR: Chase; Iosivas, C. Jones, Irwin (R/UFA?)
TE: D. Sample (UFA)
OT: O. Brown, Carman, D. Smith, Ford (UFA)
OG: Cappa, Volson, Scharping (UFA)
C: Karras, T. Hill
----------
Defense = 23.
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Sample, Ossai
DT: BJ Hill; Carter, Tufele, Tupou (UFA)
LB: Wilson, Pratt, Harper, Bailey (UFA), Bachie (UFA)
CB: CTB, Turner, Hudson, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis
S: Battle, D. Hill, Scott, Anderson (Inj)
----------
Special Teams = 3
PK: McPherson
P: Robbins
LS: Adomitis (ERFA)
--------
Rd1 pick #18 = 1.

Practice Squad/Futures = 11.
1. Jackson, WR (Fut)
2. Lassiter, WR (Fut)
3. Pryor, WR (Fut)
4. Kirkland, OT/OG (Fut)
5. Gilliam, OF/C (Fut)
6. Gunter, DE (Fut)
7. D. Davis, DT (Fut)
8. Heyward, LB (Fut)
9. George, CB (Fut)
10. Cochran, OT
11. Maxwell, DT

Again, the 2 ERFA's are gimmees. Chronologically, the MIN guys probably happen later, or even pkst draft. But all 8 I selected have all demonstrated some ability to be playable for us, and should be relatively easy to sign. And also be prime vet PS candidates if they get bumped by a FA or draft pick.

Our unsigned FA would be:

1. Higgins, WR
2. Reader, DT/NT
3. J. Williams, OT
4. Boyd, WR
5. Awuzie, CB
6. Hudson, TE (RFA?)
7. ADG, LB
8. Wilcox, TE
9. McCarron, QB
10. I. Smith, TE

I signed 10 of our own FAs in this exercise, who will be added back in the position specific posts that will follow: Browning (ERFA), Adomitis (ERFA), T. Williams (UFA), Irwin (RFA?), D. Sample (UFA), Ford (UFA), Scharping (UFA), Tupou (UFA), Bailey (UFA), and Bachie (UFA).

Alright  time for the position by position stuff as the tag period begins on Tuesday.

I am going to start with the spots I think are the greatest areas of need. For me, WR, DT, OT, TE, and CB are clearly the top 5.

1. Wide Receiver

A. Signed

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, Snaps
1. Chase, $9,806,250, same, '26; 85.3/83.3/82.8, 890 O
--------Starter line-------
2. Iosivas, $954,846; $119,538, '27, 61.2/x/x, 266 O, 217 ST
3. C. Jones, $1,084,694, $509,082, '27, 65.8/x/x, 44 O, 52 ST
----------Reserve line--------
4. Jackson, $915,000, $0, '25 ERFA, 60.7/x/x, 5 O, 38 ST
5. Lassitter II, $795,000, $0, '25 ERFA, 58.4/x/x, 5 O
6. Pryor, $915,000, $0, '25 ERFA, x/x/x, Zero.
---------Future's/PS Line---------

B. Unsigned/Free Agents

1. Higgins, UFA, 72.1/77.1/84.5, 573 O, 1 ST
2. Boyd, UFA, 59.5/71.1/72.6, 824 O, 1 ST
---------Starter line
4. Irwin, FA?, 57.0/68.0/58.3, 429 O, 22 ST
------------Reserve Line--------
5. Morgan Jr, UFA, NR/66.4/55.2, 4 O, 52 ST
------PS/Future's Line--------

C. Analysis

We have 2 starters hitting FA (Higgins, Boyd) and our reserve who played the most snaps of any of the backups (Irwin). We have 2 guys signed who showed flashes last year (Iosivas 4 TDs, Jones return TD), but neither looks ready to be a starter to my eye. Certainly not at WR2. We have 3 guys signed to Future's conteacts who were PS last year and all have $0 Dead Cap (Jackson, Lassitter II, Pryor).

For me, tagging Tee is a no-brainer. We have lots of cap space. Yes, Chase's extension is looming, but can be put off for at least one more year, and the 5th year option is still 2 years away. And letting Tee walk for nothing would be insanely stupid.

I would tag him early. $20.1 mil. If a long term deal can be worked out for less than that APY, fantastic. If not, he plays under the tag & we re-assess next year. Which I think most likely, as Tee's agent values him above $20.1 APY, but his play last year did not justify it.

Now  if somone come knocking with 2 FRPs for Tee? Yeah, that is a trade I make. But there are only 4 WRs I think likely to replace Tee's production this year, and 3 will be long gone (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze) and 1 is iffy (Thomas). Any team who is WR hungry can just pick 'em instead of paying $20 mil for Tee. We are hunting a SB. Tee is a top 5 guy on our team. Keep if we can, and we can.

Boyd is tricker. He slipped last year. Maybe if we have $$ left after signing Higgins and addressing the trenches (+ maybe TE & CB) in FA, we could circle back to Boyd if he is willing to take a haircut. But there a good WR prospects likely on the board on Day 2. Slot or wide.

Irwin is a min salary guy to me. Fine if he is back, but with little to no Dead Cap so we can cut/PS him if necessary.

This is all great info Isaac Curtis, thanks.

(02-22-2024, 03:23 PM)casear2727 Wrote: This is all great info Isaac Curtis, thanks.

Appreciated. Will try to do every position group. Plus maybe a FA Overview type thing. And I'd think we will get a final Cap number for 2024 soon. Before teams can designate tags.

All right, time for an update with the cap news. With the cap at $255,400,000 instead of 242,500,000, we have an extra $12,900,000 to play with.

My earlier guess was $53,022,908 in functional cap space with 48 roster spots filled and a full PS. And 8 picks not in the fold. That number now jumps to $65,922,908.

Tee + Reader + a big fish (DT or DB) should fully be the play now, if we can pull it off. Even if it costs $20 + $10 + $20, we'd still have $15 mil to play with (RT, WR3, TE, DB). Before any cuts or restructures.

This is a high quality thread.

As expected, Dolphins are not gonna let Wilkins hit FA, per this report.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/sports/nfl/2024/02/22/miami-dolphins-to-tag-christian-wilkins-if-need-be-report-says-free-agency/72695880007/

OK, last update for the night. With the news that Tee is going to be tagged, I am going to repost the WR section.

Now, of course, the Tag does not mean Tee will be in stripes. He could refuse to sign it. It will almost certainly be the non-exclusive tag, so he COULD sign an offer sheet elsewhere and we do not match it. He could be traded.

And even if in stripes, the # could change if a long term deal gets done. But for now, I am assuming Tee is here and playing at the $21,816,000 tag number. Which leaves us around $44 mil in functional cap space atm.

1. Wide Receiver

A. Signed/Tagged

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, Snaps
1. Chase, $9,806,250, same, '26; 85.3/83.3/82.8, 890 O
2. Higgins, Tagged, $21,816,000, 72.1/77.1/84.5, 573 O, 1 ST
--------Starter line-------
2. Iosivas, $954,846; $119,538, '27, 61.2/x/x, 266 O, 217 ST
3. C. Jones, $1,084,694, $509,082, '27, 65.8/x/x, 44 O, 52 ST
----------Reserve line--------
4. Jackson, $915,000, $0, '25 ERFA, 60.7/x/x, 5 O, 38 ST
5. Lassitter II, $795,000, $0, '25 ERFA, 58.4/x/x, 5 O
6. Pryor, $915,000, $0, '25 ERFA, x/x/x, Zero.
---------Future's/PS Line---------

B. Unsigned/Free Agents

1. Boyd, UFA, 59.5/71.1/72.6, 824 O, 1 ST
---------Starter line
4. Irwin, FA?, 57.0/68.0/58.3, 429 O, 22 ST
------------Reserve Line--------
5. Morgan Jr, UFA, NR/66.4/55.2, 4 O, 52 ST
------PS/Future's Line--------

C. Analysis

With Tee tagged, it sure looks like he will be here next year. Though I suppose a trade is still possible. Our functional cap space is down to around $44 mil.

Boyd coming back certainly seems more likely with the cap $12.9 higher than expected. But I would still prioritize difference makers first: Reader, a FA DT (Madubuike, Wilkins, Jones, Williams), or a difference maker DB (Johnson, Sneed, Winfield).

I think it is unlikely any big fish DT actually hits the open market. So then that big fish $$ likely gets redistributed to medium fish or our own guys (Boyd, Chido).

EDIT: I forgot to mention Irwin. Who is fine as a reserve on a cheap salary Some sites have him as a RFA, others UFA. I do think we need more explosiveness at WR from guys not named Chase. Even if Boyd comes back as the result of the cap being higher, I would not rule out a day 2 WR to uograde Irwin immediately and take over for Boyd/Higgins soon.

I also think it unlikely the FO spends big on a DB. But if we whiff on DTs, guys like Johnson at CB and Winfield at S would be the top of my FA board.

With the salary cap going up more than expected I dont think there is any chance Madubuike hits free agency now. Baltimore will have the money to re-sign him.

OK, time for another position group. This one I have as #2 in my rankings. And with Tee tagged, it should be #1.

2. Defensive Tackle

A. Signed

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Year, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. BJ Hill; $10,833,334; $3,333,334; 2025, 67.7/65.8/70.4, 778 D + 77 ST.
------------Starter line------------
2. Carter; $1,385,438: $437,250; 2026; 51.2/32.1/x, 500 D + 76 ST.
3. Tufele; $1,055,000; $0; 2025; 45.5/49.8/57.7, 96 D + 8 ST.
4. Bell; $915,000; $0; 2025; 51.9/x/x, 0 snaps for us.
----------Reserve Line--------
5. D. Davis; $795,000, $0, 2025, x/29.2/x, Zero
6. Maxwell; $803,333; $16,667, 2025, x/x/x, Zero
--------Future's/Practice Squad Line-------

B. Unsigned

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Year, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. Reader, UFA, 82.2/87.3/81.3, 535 D + 51 ST
----------Starter Line--------
2. Tupou, UFA, 52.1/56.4/57.0, 287 D + 34 ST

C. Analysis

We have a glaring hole with Reader's FA + injury. He was again an elite run stopper who also does a decent job pushing the pocket. Our run D was poor even when DJ was healthy. Though it appears the coaches are blaming poor secondary calls to the LBs on shifts/shading as the prinary culprit.

BJ Hill was solid again. But aside from him & Reader, no other DT had a sack and all their PFFs were below 60 (or 50).

Tupou is a FA, so we don't really have a NT type signed. Bell did not play a snap for us last year. Maxwell got hurt at camp and was on IR all year. Davis has been a PS guy the last couple years.

We badly need to improve the run D AND the interior pass rush. Carter was better last year and made a play here & there (Minny game) but was hardly inpactful. But he is cheap and I bet gets another year to improve further.

I would not expect anything from Tufele, Bell, Maxwell, and Davis. These look like PS level/inactive level guys to me. Though a breakout is always possible. $16k in dead cap between the 4 of them.

Tupou is barely playable and has been declining since he took a COVID year.

I really think we need 2-4 guys here via FA & draft. Bringing Reader back and landing a pass rushing DT would be my biggest FA priorities now that Tee is tagged. But I find landing Madubuike or Wilkins very unlikely with the cap higher than expected. And even with DJ back, we still need a run stuffer while he is hurt and I am not exactly bullish on Tupou.

I think Hill is a starter level player. Tupou & Carter are a smidge above a PS level guy, which is everyone else we have/had (Tufele, Bell, Davis, Maxwell).

Regardless of how it goes with DJ and FA DT big fish (Madubuike, Wilkins) or medium fish (Williams, Rankins) I could see a day 2 DT pick. I think #18 is earmarked for RT.

Even if we land the big fush for $20 mil and Reader for, say $10, we'd still have around $15 mil to play with in FA, with a RT bridge, DT stopgap, TE, CB, WR3, S, and IOL depth all possible. Heck, I'd make a run at Townsend to punt.

ESPN's Barnwell has Hudson as a RFA.

Also, check out the Tiers for OT. He has Eluemenor at below starter level/pricing.

It is ESPN+ required to read. Sorry.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39583560/2024-nfl-offseason-free-agency-best-available-quarterbacks-tight-ends-offensive-linemen-tiers-money-contract

(02-26-2024, 12:39 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: ESPN's Barnwell has Hudson as a RFA.

Also, check out the Tiers for OT. He has Eluemenor at below starter level/pricing.

It is ESPN+ required to read. Sorry.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/39583560/2024-nfl-offseason-free-agency-best-available-quarterbacks-tight-ends-offensive-linemen-tiers-money-contract

Right of first refusal tender is $2.985M for ERFA.  Do you think that the team would value Hudson that much?  Seeing how he was able to be productive as a pass catcher, I'd say that it's at least worth consideration.

Just wanted to say great thread Ike and appreciate all the hard work. Sucks with the salary cap going up DT's like CJ, Madubuike
and Wilkins most likely won't be available to pick from in FA. I guess we might have to settle for a Sheldon Rankins type now.

(02-26-2024, 12:46 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Right of first refusal tender is $2.985M for ERFA.  Do you think that the team would value Hudson that much?  Seeing how he was able to be productive as a pass catcher, I'd say that it's at least worth consideration.

I am a bit confused, Hudson is certainly not an ERFA like Browning & Adomitis. The tender there is league min. 

But for a RFA, then I think you have it right. 

I guess it depends on how we see the pre-negotiating period going & how much space we have. If we cannot land any real big fish and have ample space, maybe. 

But I think we probably just let him become an UFA and bring him back. Reserves making $2 mil plus are rare for us. Though Carman & Scott & Murphy all will in '24. I'd be shocked if he and Sample are not back at TE. The position is void ATM. 

(02-26-2024, 03:22 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I am a bit confused, Hudson is certainly not an ERFA like Browning & Adomitis. The tender there is league min. 

But for a RFA, then I think you have it right. 

I guess it depends on how we see the pre-negotiating period going & how much space we have. If we cannot land any real big fish and have ample space, maybe. 

But I think we probably just let him become an UFA and bring him back. Reserves making $2 mil plus are rare for us. Though Carman & Scott & Murphy all will in '24. I'd be shocked if he and Sample are not back at TE. The position is void ATM. 

Hudson is older too, so he shouldn't cost a lot. Been in the league a while and this was his first year of real production. He isn't great at getting open 
in Man also, he knows how to find holes in Zone. Both Hudson and Sample should be back like you say, I liked how Sample blocked last year and later
in the year he was good blocking for Browning in the backfield as an H-Back.

(02-26-2024, 02:44 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Just wanted to say great thread Ike and appreciate all the hard work. Sucks with the salary cap going up DT's like CJ, Madubuike
and Wilkins most likely won't be available to pick from in FA. I guess we might have to settle for a Sheldon Rankins type now.

I think we need to distinguish a bit on DTs. The guys you mention are all pass rushing DTs who typically play next to a heavier/run stopper guy who plays more like a NT. 

I know others may differ, but for me, the guys above (Jones, Madubuike, Wilkins) are all BJ Hill upgrades. Hill would then be cut to save $$$, or move down a peg into Carter's spot, and Carter wouldclikely take Tufele's, who would then be cut or moved to the PS. 

Guys like Rankins, for me, are a more natural DJ Reader replacement/Tupou upgrade. 

For me, I'd try to land 2 NT types and 1 DT pass rusher type. I would bring Reader back, pursue an elite DT FA, and try to land a stopgap NT type. If I whiff, then I likely use a Day 2 pick on one and spend my FA $$ elsewhere (RT, TE, CB, S, IOL). 

Rankins is the best Reader approximation in FA. Sweat, McKinley Jackson seem the likely Day 2 NT types. Jefferson on Day 3. 

At DT, I think L. Williams is the next best after the 3 listed. He is almost 30 and not as dynamic a pass rusher. I like Newton & Murphy a ton, but we will likely need #18 to land either. Some decent prospects Rd2-4, but I think you are probably talking depth piece initially. 

(02-26-2024, 03:40 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I think we need to distinguish a bit on DTs. The guys you mention are all pass rushing DTs who typically play next to a heavier/run stopper guy who plays more like a NT. 

I know others may differ, but for me, the guys above (Jones, Madubuike, Wilkins) are all BJ Hill upgrades. Hill would then be cut to save $$$, or move down a peg into Carter's spot, and Carter wouldclikely take Tufele's, who would then be cut or moved to the PS. 

Guys like Rankins, for me, are a more natural DJ Reader replacement/Tupou upgrade. 

For me, I'd try to land 2 NT types and 1 DT pass rusher type. I would bring Reader back, pursue an elite DT FA, and try to land a stopgap NT type. If I whiff, then I likely use a Day 2 pick on one and spend my FA $$ elsewhere (RT, TE, CB, S, IOL). 

Rankins is the best Reader approximation in FA. Sweat, McKinley Jackson seem the likely Day 2 NT types. Jefferson on Day 3. 

At DT, I think L. Williams is the next best after the 3 listed. He is almost 30 and not as dynamic a pass rusher. I like Newton & Murphy a ton, but we will likely need #18 to land either. Some decent prospects Rd2-4, but I think you are probably talking depth piece initially. 

Yes, regardless we need at least 2 new DT's added, 1 a NT and 1 a 3-tech. But I am down with what you say, 2 NT's and 1 pass rusher
would be ideal. I have no faith in Carter after his patheticism last year. I would cut bait with him and keep BJ Hill and Tufele and let Tufele
compete with the new guys we bring in.

Rankins or Leonard Williams would be great in FA since it looks like all the best pass rushing 3-tech's will stay where they are most likely.

In the Draft Stackhouse is another NT type and Leonard Taylor and Ruke Orhorhoro are a couple 3-tech's we should keep our eye on.