IDK much about Edwards, but I love the idea of a mid-level vet S signing.

It allows Hill to be closer to the line, where he is better. And provide some cover at CB, where we are thin atm & he could turn into Hilton's successor (though Mike played REALLY well last year). The vet can mentor Battle, Hill, and Anderson.

And it would allow us to part ways with Scott. Pay Townsend with the savings.

FWIW, I am not a contract savant. IDK if the figures here are for simple restructures (converting stuff to signing bonus & prorated), which can be done, usually, without player consent, ir if they refer to maximum restructures which does require player consent as is more like an extension.

But here is what OTC has to say about our potential in this area.

Someone who knows better than me can chime in.

https://overthecap.com/transactions-table

Again, I would not do it unless there were significant FA's out there who could help us AND wanted to come here. But I am in full "put all our chips in the middle" time. Burrow's extension kicks in next year. We have 2 more years of tags to play with with Tee and 2 years before Chase's extension kicks in. Hendrickson is 30. Reader is 29.

The time is now.

(03-01-2024, 07:59 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: FWIW, I am not a contract savant. IDK if the figures here are for simple restructures (converting stuff to signing bonus & prorated), which can be done, usually, without player consent, ir if they refer to maximum restructures which does require player consent as is more like an extension.

But here is what OTC has to say about our potential in this area.

Someone who knows better than me can chime in.

https://overthecap.com/transactions-table

Again, I would not do it unless there were significant FA's out there who could help us AND wanted to come here. But I am in full "put all our chips in the middle" time. Burrow's extension kicks in next year. We have 2 more years of tags to play with with Tee and 2 years before Chase's extension kicks in. Hendrickson is 30. Reader is 29.

The time is now.

Yes, the notion of creating cap space to load up for a big run sure does seem tantalizing.  However, I cannot for the life of me envision the front office pushing debt into the future.  I mean, most years they roll cap over to the next.

(03-01-2024, 06:27 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I think that the Bengals are in the position to get a seriously good, older veteran that might be looking to make a Superbowl run.  And just think of how the young secondary would benefit from a voice of experience helping them develop that chemistry?

I think it has a cumulative impact on the defense.  The potential improvement in the secondary is obvious.  The linebackers seemingly declined, but it's been said that they played tentative due to not trusting the young DBs to know their roles.  The IDL needs help, but this is an attrition thing with Reader.  This group used to be really stout against the run with a identical front seven to the one they had in 2023.  This might lead one to believe that they secondary is the source of the issues, particularly communication and football smarts/experience.

Are they going to get a Jesse Bates caliber centerfielder?  Almost definitely not.  However, I think with a vet presence back there to keep things tight, the young guys would have a shot a reaching their potential.  I like our corners in CTB and Turner.  I blame none of last year on CTB.  Turner had some mental errors later, but I think that's somewhat expected from a second round rookie.  His athletic ability can't be taught.  He just needs a little more time in Lou's system.  

I don't think Hill or Battle are ideal fits for the Bates role.  Both could potentially do what Bell did, but Bell had top-end football smarts.  He also took several years in the league to become the player he was here.  When his rookie deal expired in New Orleans, he wasn't exactly a hot commodity on the FA market.  He was considered a very limited box safety of the variety that was becoming obsolete.  

People talking themselves into Onwenu are going to be seriously disappointed when the Pats resign him. They have over 100million in cap space, he isn't going anywhere.

(03-02-2024, 11:16 AM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: People talking themselves into Onwenu are going to be seriously disappointed when the Pats resign him. They have over 100million in cap space, he isn't going anywhere.

Oh, they have space. Oodles. The whispers are he does not want to be there. He does not have an agent at present, having recently fired his. Though if that was coming from agent or player is unclear. 

I think the (unlikely) path to him hitting FA is if he does not want to be there AND they decide they don't want a potential malcontent (T. Brown), even if he is a good player. They are rebuilding and likely want to reset the culture post Bill B. 

They have all sorts of options at #3. Take QB. Trade down with a QB needy team that want the last highly rated guy for more picks. They can pay Dugger and some more vets to come in and reset the culture, like we did. 

We can dream until Tuesday, though. 

I think the most likely FA scenario is something like: 

1) Tee plays in the tag ($21.8). 
2) NT: Reader back ($10 mil-ish) 
3) DT:  L. Williams (if we sign an older guy, $15) 
----------$20 mil left-------- 
4) S: vet FS for value. Scott waived. 

Those are the ones I'd really pursue hard. Those are all gonna be older guys. So we will see if we break tradition there. I think we will. Mixin did a restructure last year! 

After that, we could go several different ways. 

5) Lower tier RT (Smith, Brown, Eluemunor). 
Frees up #18 and a trade down possibility if the plug & play guys (Fuaga & Latham) are gone. Trade down, get extra picks, pick Mims/Guyton. Or stay and take Bowers or Murphy or the best CB on the board. 

6) P: Townsend. 

7) RB: waive Mixon for space (unlikely without replacement in hand), sign Barkley/Henry. 

8) Do some restructures to free space. 

9) And use it to go get: TE, IOL uogrades or bring back Chido/Boyd. 

(03-02-2024, 12:54 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Oh, they have space. Oodles. The whispers are he does not want to be there. He does not have an agent at present, having recently fired his. Though if that was coming from agent or player is unclear. 

I think the (unlikely) path to him hitting FA is if he does not want to be there AND they decide they don't want a potential malcontent (T. Brown), even if he is a good player. They are rebuilding and likely want to reset the culture post Bill B. 

They have all sorts of options at #3. Take QB. Trade down with a QB needy team that want the last highly rated guy for more picks. They can pay Dugger and some more vets to come in and reset the culture, like we did. 

We can dream until Tuesday, though. 

I think the most likely FA scenario is something like: 

1) Tee plays in the tag ($21.8). 
2) NT: Reader back ($10 mil-ish) 
3) DT:  L. Williams (if we sign an older guy, $15) 
----------$20 mil left-------- 
4) S: vet FS for value. Scott waived. 

Those are the ones I'd really pursue hard. Those are all gonna be older guys. So we will see if we break tradition there. I think we will. Mixin did a restructure last year! 

After that, we could go several different ways. 

5) Lower tier RT (Smith, Brown, Eluemunor). 
Frees up #18 and a trade down possibility if the plug & play guys (Fuaga & Latham) are gone. Trade down, get extra picks, pick Mims/Guyton. Or stay and take Bowers or Murphy or the best CB on the board. 

6) P: Townsend. 

7) RB: waive Mixon for space (unlikely without replacement in hand), sign Barkley/Henry. 

8) Do some restructures to free space. 

9) And use it to go get: TE, IOL uogrades or bring back Chido/Boyd. 

Valid points, but I just don't foresee them letting both of their OTs hit free agency in the same off-season. Brown, yes. He's almost certainly out due to attitude and age probably. But a versatile, young, still-ascending offensive lineman in a league starving for quality offensive line play? They'll overpay if they have to, and sell him on "new coach, culture change" and "the grass isn't always greener elsewhere". I would almost bet my house on it I'm so sure of it.

I would LOVE to have him, and hope I'm wrong. But we've seen this song and dance too many times before to put ANY eggs into that basket!

(03-02-2024, 08:13 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Valid points, but I just don't foresee them letting both of their OTs hit free agency in the same off-season. Brown, yes. He's almost certainly out due to attitude and age probably. But a versatile, young, still-ascending offensive lineman in a league starving for quality offensive line play? They'll overpay if they have to, and sell him on "new coach, culture change" and "the grass isn't always greener elsewhere". I would almost bet my house on it I'm so sure of it.

I would LOVE to have him, and hope I'm wrong. But we've seen this song and dance too many times before to put ANY eggs into that basket!

Don't get me wrong, I think it is extremely unlikely. More than Jim Carey "So you are saying there's a chance?" level, but not by a lot. He is sans agent ATM, though. If there is no deal by Tuesday, and Dugger isn't signed yet either, which guy would you tag? Would the answer change if one guy told you he'd prefer to play elsewhere? 

Speaking of elsewhere: 

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2024/3/2/24088515/dallas-cowboys-free-agent-tyron-smith-reportedly-unlikely-return-2024-draft-offensive-tackle

Given his age and the fact he has been mostly a LT, and the fact he will want a bag, I doubt it happens. But if you want a 1-2 year bridge whilest your raw OT guy develops, that is a good as it gets right there. 

Alright, let's try to get through these position groups.

7. Interior OL

A. Signed

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. Cappa: $9,250,000; $4,500,000; '26; 64.9/67.6/74.2, 1,067 O
2. Karras: $7,400,000; $1,000,000; '25; 67.4/62.6/72.8
3. Volson: $1,149,221; $328,442; '26; 58.3/51.6/x, 1,088 O + 72 ST
----------------Starter Line-------------
4. T. Hill: $1,103,088; $48,088; '25; x/57.0/53.3, Zero.
5. Carman (OT/G): $2,370,438; $694,536; 56.6/60.7/56.3, 12 O + 1 ST
6. D. Smith (OT/G): $1,179,136; '25; X/48.2/53.0, Zero
----------------Reserve Line-----------
7. Gilliam (OG/C); $795,000; $0; '25; x/x/x, Zero
8. Kirkland (OT/G); $795,000; $0; '25; x/x/x Zero.
--------------PS/Future's Line--------

B. Unsigned

Player, FA Status, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
----------Starter Line-----------
1. Scharping: UFA; 78.1/60.5/59.9, 13 O + 72 ST
2. Ford (OT/G): UFA; 53.9/41.2/46.7, 79 O + 72 ST

C. Analysis

All three starters are signed. It is Karras' last year and Cappa & Volson have two more. Karras is a better pass blocker than run, but is above average overall. Volson the opposite but not as good overall. Cappa more even. If there is an upgrade, it needs to be Volson's spot.

T. Hill is the only guy from the 53 last year who is signed. Though Carman is here and has some experience at Guard. Smith has played so little, but he has theoretical G abilities. The club lists both as tackles.

Gilliam and Kirkland are both signed to Future's deals and were PS/Inj guys last year. Gillian at G/C and Kirkland at G/OT.

Our starting OL was extremely durable last year. Ford got the most snaps, mostly at OT, but might have still gotten more G snaps than Scharping's 12. Hill & Smith did not play a snap anywhere, and Car an got 1 offensive snap.

Not gonna lie, I'd love an upgrade or some new blood, but given the other issues at OT, DT, WR3, TE, CB, S, and even P, I think anything other than a Day 3 pick or vet min type signings (Scharping/Ford) is unlikely.

The only way I see a big FA signing would be if we strike out at higher profile positions (DT, OT, TE, S) and have excess cash and there is a stilud LG out there for reasonable. Risner?

The only way I could see spending early draft capital would be if we sign enough FAs at other spots that IOL becomes the BPA at a position of need. If we landed Onwenu/Smith, then maybe OT is off the board at #18 & JPJ makes sense? Or we sign Onwenu, draft an OT & move Mike to LG. But IOL ahead of OT, WR, DT, CB, TE, or S early in the draft would really require a crazy good FA period.

IDK ifca guy like Eluemunor would get me off OT at #18. Might make me OK with risking a trade down for more picks. Couples with a good FA class, maybe I spend early on IOL in that case.

(03-02-2024, 11:16 AM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: People talking themselves into Onwenu are going to be seriously disappointed when the Pats resign him. They have over 100million in cap space, he isn't going anywhere.

Agree even if the Pats don’t sign Onwenu, he’s the top FA at offensive tackle he’s gonna get some huge contract offers and I don’t think the Bengals are gonna be in that mix. Unless they think they have no chance of signing Higgins long term and can use the money towards his extension elsewhere? My gut says they’re a long ways apart. Imagine if Higgins hit the open market at 25 he’d probably end up with a top 5 contract at his position or higher which I doubt the Bengals would offer considering Chase will probably be close to one after his extension. If your Higgins agent you’d use this logic.

(03-03-2024, 10:11 AM)lone bengal Wrote: Agree even if the Pats don’t sign Onwenu, he’s the top FA at offensive tackle he’s gonna get some huge contract offers and I don’t think the Bengals are gonna be in that mix. Unless they think they have no chance of signing Higgins long term and can use the money towards his extension elsewhere? My gut says they’re a long ways apart. Imagine if Higgins hit the open market at 25 he’d probably end up with a top 5 contract at his position or higher which I doubt the Bengals would offer considering Chase will probably be close to one after his extension. If your Higgins agent you’d use this logic.

Justin Jefferson will be #1 in WR salaries when he gets an extension.  I would be shocked if Chase isn't a close behind #2.  I do not expect Chae to have any real serious discussions until Jefferson signs

There was a tidbit on ESPN's site that said they do not expect Miami to tag Wilkins, despite them saying "all options are on the table."

I peeked inside the Phineider. Some Dolphins fans think he should be priority #1 for them. Others think he is a very good, but not a game altering player they should not overpay for. 8 of the 9 sacks he has were vs poor teams. PFF has him (and Madubuike) in the mid 70s with L. Williams higher. He was also a defensive captain and that strip sack/pick in the POs vs KC was one the best plays I've ever seen.

He is not Chris Jones level good. But who is?

(03-03-2024, 10:11 AM)lone bengal Wrote: Agree even if the Pats don’t sign Onwenu, he’s the top FA at offensive tackle he’s gonna get some huge contract offers and I don’t think the Bengals are gonna be in that mix. Unless they think they have no chance of signing Higgins long term and can use the money towards his extension elsewhere? My gut says they’re a long ways apart. Imagine if Higgins hit the open market at 25 he’d probably end up with a top 5 contract at his position or higher which I doubt the Bengals would offer considering Chase will probably be close to one after his extension. If your Higgins agent you’d use this logic.

If he hits FA we will be all over him like white on rice. He is a better run blocker than pass blocker. But he has also graded out at 80+ at 3 different spots over his career (LG, RG, RT) in various seasons. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-free-agency-mike-onwenu-new-england-patriots-priority-2024

He'd totally open up the draft for us. We could take Bowers or Murphy/Newton if they are there. We could snag a shutdown corner, one of Arnold, Mitchell, Wiggins, or DeJuan is gonna be there at #18. We could decide to take a WR high (be it a Higgins type or Boyd replacement). The former would likely mean a trade, and another high pick and more cap space to chase FAs. Heck, we could decide to double down on OL. With Onwenu at RT, we could pick JPJ. Or play him at LG and take a tackle anyway. Weakness to strength right away. 

I will admit not being high on him when FA talk started. But I have really done a 180. The consensus on Pats Pulpit is they would be nuts to let him get away. I don't think there was any dissent at all. 

Protecting Burrow better should be the #1 goal. Weapons and interior pass rush and fixing the secondary are all important secondary goals. But for me, secondary. 

Guys, we have $44 mil in functional space. If top tier FAs hit the market at premium positions, we should be on in them. 

Now, NE was run heavy. And he is an elite run blocker and a good (not great) pass blocker from my understanding. They were playing to his strengths. Less so for us. Karras should know the guy. And we could always stick him at LG and draft a RT anyway.

Signing guys like Onwenu, Wilkins, Higgins, and Reader is what cap space is made for. 

Looks like Christian Wilkins will not be tagged and instead hit free agency!

(03-03-2024, 11:46 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: If he hits FA we will be all over him like white on rice. He is a better run blocker than pass blocker. But he has also graded out at 80+ at 3 different spots over his career (LG, RG, RT) in various seasons. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-free-agency-mike-onwenu-new-england-patriots-priority-2024

He'd totally open up the draft for us. We could take Bowers or Murphy/Newton if they are there. We could snag a shutdown corner, one of Arnold, Mitchell, Wiggins, or DeJuan is gonna be there at #18. We could decide to take a WR high (be it a Higgins type or Boyd replacement). The former would likely mean a trade, and another high pick and more cap space to chase FAs. Heck, we could decide to double down on OL. With Onwenu at RT, we could pick JPJ. Or play him at LG and take a tackle anyway. Weakness to strength right away. 

I will admit not being high on him when FA talk started. But I have really done a 180. The consensus on Pats Pulpit is they would be nuts to let him get away. I don't think there was any dissent at all. 

Protecting Burrow better should be the #1 goal. Weapons and interior pass rush and fixing the secondary are all important secondary goals. But for me, secondary. 

Guys, we have $44 mil in functional space. If top tier FAs hit the market at premium positions, we should be on in them. 

Now, NE was run heavy. And he is an elite run blocker and a good (not great) pass blocker from my understanding. They were playing to his strengths. Less so for us. Karras should know the guy. And we could always stick him at LG and draft a RT anyway.

Signing guys like Onwenu, Wilkins, Higgins, and Reader is what cap space is made for. 

Agree on Onwenu I'm from New England he was very good even as a rookie at guard. Like you said it definitely opens up the draft. It will be interesting to see what happens at DT. The best free agent DT's are more 3 techniques. If we resign Reader I doubt we pay a guy like Wilkins big money while still paying Hill ? Or If Reader can't be resigned is there a possibility Hill at 6'3 311lb can play nose tackle and you sign a guy like Wilkins at 3 tech. The NT free agent class is not good. Maybe they be resign Reader then look for a cheaper rotation guy with upside like a Kinlaw then see how the draft falls to them. 

(03-03-2024, 12:09 PM)J24 Wrote: Looks like  Christian Wilkins will not be tagged and instead hit free agency!

10 days until we see how the FA window starts to unfold.

I hope Duke has success!

(03-03-2024, 12:58 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: 10 days until we see how the FA window starts to unfold.

I hope Duke has success!

Tuesday is the tag deadline. We will have a better idea then as well. 

Wilkins hitting FA is a bit surprising to me. I knew Miami had cap issues & his agent is the same as Tee's, but still. 

Onto more position groups. An easy one here: punter!

8. Punter

A. Signed

Player: Cap; Dead Cap; FA Yr: PFF L3; 2023 Snaps

1. Robbins: $948,334; $100,002; 2027; n/a; 138 ST

B. Unsigned

No One

C. Analysis

Robbins' rookie year did not go particularly well.He was 30th or worst in a lot of punting stats. We already have coaches/FO saying we need some "competition" at the position. I do not have access to PFF scores for him.

The Chiefs appear ready to let 2022 All-Pro Tommy Townsend walk after sogning Matt Ariaza. Iowa's Taylor is the top rated P in the draft. I think our 5th would be needed, and he might be gone before that.

I can certainly dig not wanting to spend in FA on a P. But we have had issues 2 years running now. Fix this. Townsend or Taylor.

Well, it is getting awful late in the game in terms of the tag deadline (Tue 4pm). 27 hours. No tags outside of Tee and Evans re-upping in Tampa is the only big time tag candidate to put ink to paper.

Still, I am gonna try to get through all the position groups before Tue 4pm.

Tier 1 was where I think we and clear holes at starting spots and possibly depth issues as well: DT/NT, OT, WR, TE.

Tier 2 was for spits where we have signed starters but could for sure use an upgrade, with depth issues also possible: CB, S, IOL, and P.

Now we hit Tier 3: depth only.

9. Running Back

A. Signed

Player: Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. Mixon: $8,500,000; $2,750,000; '25; 71.1/79.3/79.5, 752 O
---------Starter Line-------------
2. C. Brown: $986,539; $214,617; '27; 63.9/x/x, 93 O + 160 ST
3. Evans: $1,098,322; $43,222; '25; 51.9/75.4/x, 24 O + 122 ST

B. Unsigned

Player: FA Status; PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
---------Starter Line------
1. T. Williams: UFA; 58.9/82.9/68.4, 156 O + 294 ST
---------Reserve Line------

C. Analysis

A lot of folks may disagree here, and put this spot up a tier, but I think Mixon likely stays. At the moment he is signed, here, and petformed pretty well last year (1,400 total yards, 12 TDs, 70+ PFF). Yes, he could be more elusive and better at picking up blitzes. But he never fumbles, is pretty good out of the backfield, and did the club a solid by taking a cut last year. And is popular in the FO & locker room.

While I think another restructure is possible if we need it, I see a cut as VERY unlikely. No chance without a replacement in hand. Only way is if we need that cap for a bigger FA RB (Henry, Barkley) or another big time FA and we need the space & cannot find it anywhere else. The RB draft class is weak, and we likely have bigger fish to fry.

Brown had a decent campaign and flashed explosion, but nothing to convince me he is ready to be RB1. RB2? Yep.

Evans is purely a ST & 3rd down guy who shows some promise but also makes mistakes. I could see him getting replaced. He was RB4 last year.

Williams has been a solid ST guy and RB3 and I could very well see him back. At least to camp. Even if we draft someone or pick up a backup type FA, he could still compete for RB4.

(03-03-2024, 04:59 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Tuesday is the tag deadline. We will have a better idea then as well. 

Wilkins hitting FA is a bit surprising to me. I knew Miami had cap issues & his agent is the same as Tee's, but still. 

With this news, we should direct any money we were considering giving Reader (+ more) and send it Wilkins way. He is younger, entering his prime, and not coming off a series injury. He might not be quite the elite elite run stuffer that Reader WAS (no sure thing he returns to form), but he is still a top tier run defender and gives you much, much more in the pass rush department. 

The impact he would have on our defense is tremendous.