(03-24-2024, 11:03 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: It was basically the same as the comp pick, just higher in the 3rd.

Honestly, if the bengals trade him now they missed out on an opportunity.  

Keenan Allen for peanuts and similar salary would have meant production in 2024 plus the higher pick.

Mike Williams as a semi replacement.

Marquise brown.

Meaning they could have gotten a wr2 and the pick… with the cap space they have and the what will be off the books with tee leaving.

You would almost have/want to sign back Boyd or get OBJ (Odell) in that case.

Yeah that's the take I had last week with Mike Williams but great point with the other examples including Allen. 

Either way, we don't have a solid #2 to replace him, even if NE's 2nd and 4th would add up to basically Detroit's #29 pick overall on the scale.  I worry that they would pigeonhole themselves into taking whoever the best WR is at 18 even if there is a better prospect especially at OT.  Even then, I don't like relying on a rookie to produce for a contender.  

I'd still take the trade package as long as I did my homework on a passable WR via trade, as you mentioned we have the space. 

(03-24-2024, 10:55 PM)Shouldamapads Wrote: I’ve said this before-  the number of 1st round draft pics that actually work out is less than 50%. After the first round, about 25 to 30% workout. Trading a known for an unknown doesn’t always equate to production. Take John Ross the fourth pick of the draft that was an absolute bust. there’s lots of examples just like this one. Higgins is a big number but he’s a known. Quit acting like he’s so simple to just replace with somebody in the draft because that is not the case at all. Aside, wr isn’t a high need with him on our roster.

Ignoring the last two years because not enough of a sample size yet. From 2021 (so 3 year sample size in the NFL) to 2017 (a 5 year window).... 10 out of 17 WRs drafted in the 1st round have had a 1k season. That's nearly 60%. We've seen Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith all be drafted in the 1st in that time. All of those guys would be ranked higher than Tee, and you get them on the cheap for years.

Ross was the 9th overall pick. The Bengals have been pretty good at top-5 picks in the 21st century after struggling so hard at it in the 90s.

Here are some other knowns about Higgins...
He will get banged up and miss time at some point in the season. 
He doesn't want to be here. (Will he play while at 80% like he has in the past if it jeopardizes his offseason payday?)
He will walk in the offseason and only bring us a 2026 3rd round comp pick, the current equivalent value of a 2024 5th round comp pick.

We will then have to find a rookie WR in 2025 instead, so all you'd be doing is pushing the decision forward a year while giving yourself less resources (money and picks both) to do it with and saddling yourself with a potential malcontent.

(03-24-2024, 11:25 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The same can be said for keeping him on the tag. The only way it’s really worth it to let him walk for nothing is to win it all. Does he give you a better chance at doing that? Sure. But it if you don’t it really sucks to lose him for nothing.

You could do this same exercise next year.

(03-24-2024, 11:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ignoring the last two years because not enough of a sample size yet. From 2021 (so 3 year sample size in the NFL) to 2017 (a 5 year window).... 10 out of 17 WRs drafted in the 1st round have had a 1k season. That's nearly 60%. We've seen Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith all be drafted in the 1st in that time. All of those guys would be ranked higher than Tee, and you get them on the cheap for years.

Ross was the 9th overall pick. The Bengals have been pretty good at top-5 picks in the 21st century after struggling so hard at it in the 90s.

Here are some other knowns about Higgins...
He will get banged up and miss time at some point in the season. 
He doesn't want to be here. (Will he play while at 80% like he has in the past if it jeopardizes his offseason payday?)
He will walk in the offseason and only bring us a 2026 3rd round comp pick, the current equivalent value of a 2024 5th round comp pick.

We will then have to find a rookie WR in 2025 instead, so all you'd be doing is pushing the decision forward a year while giving yourself less resources (money and picks both) to do it with and saddling yourself with a potential malcontent.

Tee is not a malcontent. That is laughable.

(03-24-2024, 11:42 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Tee is not a malcontent.  That is laughable.

He might well be this year.

(03-24-2024, 11:39 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: You could do this same exercise next year.

(03-24-2024, 11:42 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Tee is not a malcontent. That is laughable.

He will be if they try and tag him twice.

(03-24-2024, 11:09 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Maybe a 2 in 2024 and a 4th that can move up to another 2 based on production.

Im not a fan of conditional picks.  Make the deal and if Tee struggles, that is on NE.

My offer - Tee and our 4th round pick for New England's 2nd and 3rd.

This way New England only loses 1 pick by Trading for Tee. They would be giving up their 2nd round pick and swapping their 3rd with our 4th. This would allow Cincinnati and New England to use the picks this year instead of waiting next year for a pick.

The Bengals are in the drivers seat here. I say, hold out for a 1st round offer or don't move him. The draft is always a crap shoot anyway. We know what Tee can do and he's locked up for the 2024 season so I wouldn't be in a rush to move him. Get the offer you want or just keep him.

(03-24-2024, 11:42 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Tee is not a malcontent.  That is laughable.

Tee wasn't a malcontent. Then he asked for a trade and started posting "Locked Up by Akon" on his social media. Lots of guys aren't malcontents... until they find a reason to be.

https://www.totalprosports.com/nfl/tee-higgins-posts-cryptic-message-as-bengals-appear-to-be-dragging-their-feet-after-his-trade-request/

It's a business and he has to do what he has to do, but very rarely does keeping a guy where he doesn't want to be turn out well for the team. Tee is going to get a ankle or hamstring tweak at some point in the season (he does every year). This time he's not going to want to test it and play through it because he will be thinking about just getting through 2024 as healthy as he can for FA.

(03-25-2024, 12:46 AM)007BengalsFan Wrote: My offer - Tee and our 4th round pick for New England's 2nd and 3rd.  

This way New England only loses 1 pick by Trading for Tee.  They would be giving up their 2nd round pick and swapping their 3rd with our 4th.  This would allow Cincinnati and New England to use the picks this year instead of waiting next year for a pick.

You went right back into roughly middle 1st round pick territory.

NE's 2nd and 3rd even when offset by our 4th is still worth roughly between the 23rd and 24th overall pick. New England picks too high.

(03-24-2024, 11:25 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The same can be said for keeping him on the tag. The only way it’s really worth it to let him walk for nothing is to win it all. Does he give you a better chance at doing that? Sure. But it if you don’t it really sucks to lose him for nothing.

Lose him for nothing plus let him go to the highest bidder who could be a division rival which would amplify the sucking. Would hate to see him become a steeler, Brown, or Raven. Sign him or trade him remain the two only decisions in my book. 

Question for the draft experts, if the Bengals trade with NE for an early 2nd round selection. then decided to keep that pick but package their own 18th pick of 2nd with their 1st round pick, how far could they move up in the first ?

Or even the Bengals 1st and 3rd pick and keep both 2nd round picks how far could they move up in the 1st round ? 

A top 10 1st round pick and a very early 2nd round would be sweet. 

(03-25-2024, 06:36 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Lose him for nothing plus let him go to the highest bidder who could be a division rival which would amplify the sucking. Would hate to see him become a steeler, Brown, or Raven. Sign him or trade him remain the two only decisions in my book. 

Question for the draft experts, if the Bengals trade with NE for an early 2nd round selection. then decided to keep that pick but package their own 18th pick of 2nd with their 1st round pick, how far could they move up in the first ?

Or even the Bengals 1st and 3rd pick and keep both 2nd round picks how far could they move up in the 1st round ? 

A top 10 1st round pick and a very early 2nd round would be sweet. 

Our 1st and 2nd are worth 1310 points which could move us up to about 9th or 10th.  Chicago, at 9, doesn't currently have a 2nd rounder, so they could maybe listen to a trade offer from us. 

 https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=cin

(03-25-2024, 06:36 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Lose him for nothing plus let him go to the highest bidder who could be a division rival which would amplify the sucking. Would hate to see him become a steeler, Brown, or Raven. Sign him or trade him remain the two only decisions in my book. 

Question for the draft experts, if the Bengals trade with NE for an early 2nd round selection. then decided to keep that pick but package their own 18th pick of 2nd with their 1st round pick, how far could they move up in the first ?

Or even the Bengals 1st and 3rd pick and keep both 2nd round picks how far could they move up in the 1st round ? 

A top 10 1st round pick and a very early 2nd round would be sweet. 

This draft reminds me of the NBA draft. Teams don’t usually give up lottery picks. Most of the teams in the top 12 if they need a receiver would rather draft one on a rookie deal. I just don’t see a path to move up. We are looking for a wide receiver with a wide receiver ( with a hefty tag). Unfortunately if we trade him we might get another 2 but if we keep him we get a comp 3. We’ll see.

(03-24-2024, 09:03 PM)M.W. Wrote: I would think a 2nd and a 4th would get it done.

If that 2nd rounder is the Pats #34 pick, DO IT! thats where we get Sweat

I've been lurking and keeping receipts for the past week, while refraining from posting. I have been all for getting Tee back on board. Ts, if doesn't want to row the boat he can get off.

JB made Trent Irwin relevant. Ffs, plz read that again! Tee is replaceable, I assure you.

Guys on here be acting like there aren't 10-12 viable O-lineman and 5-6 viable DTs in this draft. Hell, Texas has two viable DTs alone. Signing Trent Brown opens up our draft. Now, let's go get something for Tee and keep cooking.

Tee's a top 20 WR at the very least and he is in his prime. He isn't going to be easy to replace and he is more valuable than most top 40 picks. Outside of Harrison and Nabers I'm not sure there is a guy in this draft that I feel comfortable with replacing Tee with!

(03-25-2024, 11:58 AM)J24 Wrote: Tee's a top 20 WR at the very least and he is in his prime. He isn't going to be easy to replace and he is more valuable than most top 40 picks. Outside of Harrison and Nabers I'm not sure there is a guy in this draft that I feel comfortable with replacing Tee with!

youre thinking small. You dont have to replace a guy 1:1. You can replace a player's production with multiple pieces. Thats what KC did in 2022 with Smith-Schuster and MVS to replace Tyreek.

think moneyball and what they did to replace Jason Giambi

(03-25-2024, 11:58 AM)J24 Wrote: Tee's a top 20 WR at the very least and he is in his prime. He isn't going to be easy to replace and he is more valuable than most top 40 picks. Outside of Harrison and Nabers I'm not sure there is a guy in this draft that I feel comfortable with replacing Tee with!

Preach! Testify!

Tee Higgins is a monster talent and I hope Duke does everything he can to keep him in stripes.

(03-25-2024, 12:11 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Preach!  Testify!

Tee Higgins is a monster talent and I hope Duke does everything he can to keep him in stripes.

I agree, it should take a lopsided deal for us to trade away Tee.

I watched him in LA own Jalen Ramsey. A second round for me is not enough. Are we playing for 2024 or not? Many go after the FO for being conservative with FA money. I would think those same people would be on the DO NOT TRADE TEE IN 2024 train.

(03-25-2024, 12:02 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: youre thinking small. You dont have to replace a guy 1:1. You can replace a player's production with multiple pieces. Thats what KC did in 2022 with Smith-Schuster and MVS to replace Tyreek.

think moneyball and what they did to replace Jason Giambi

If the Bengals Trade Tee before the Draft, then this is what I think they will do with the 1st round pick.

Brian Thomas Jr  6 foot 3 inches tall 209 pounds  4.33 forty  2023 stats at LSU  68 catches 1,177 yards 17 tds 17.3 yards per catch

Say they get a High 2nd round pick for TEE (in the 33 to 39 range) and get the Tag Money that would have gone to TEE

to spend elsewhere. 

No Agent Drama or Trade me Drama or potential holdout Drama.