If we beat the Broncos and the Stoolers beat the Chiefs then I'll have a little bit of hope for the playoffs, but I very much doubt we get in.

(12-20-2024, 10:30 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: If we beat the Broncos and the Stoolers beat the Chiefs then I'll have a little bit of hope for the playoffs, but I very much doubt we get in.

What does the Chiefs have to do with it? Not like we have a chance at the #1 seed? Oh, and, FTS!

(12-20-2024, 11:18 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: What does the Chiefs have to do with it? Not like we have a chance at the #1 seed? Oh, and, FTS!

Because if the Chiefs don't lose to the Texans or Steelers then they can sit their players against the Broncos and still have the #1 seed. We need the Chiefs to lose one of the next two so they need to still fight for the #1 seed week 18

(12-20-2024, 11:33 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Because if the Chiefs don't lose to the Texans or Steelers then they can sit their players against the Broncos and still have the #1 seed. We need the Chiefs to lose one of the next two so they need to still fight for the #1 seed week 18

Thanks. I get it now. 

(12-20-2024, 08:17 PM)Whacked Wrote: I don’t think we’re going pull this off as there are too many variables and hurdles to get over; but at least it makes the last few games a lot more fun to watch; assuming we beat the Stains and especially if we beat the Donks.

Yeah, there's so many moving parts and pieces to this whole thing and if even one of them goes wrong it all collapses.  It's like three weeks of walking on eggshells.  Well, maybe not that stressful given the odds it happens.

Considering how this year started, I'm excited we can still watch a meaningful game. I just hope Denver losing Thursday doesn't cause our boys to look past Cleveland.

Something else that I haven't seen mentioned is that the Broncos are getting a little extra time to prepare for us. I'm glad the game is in Cincinnati.

I feel all icky having to root for the Pennsylvania team.

(12-21-2024, 01:06 PM)pally Wrote: I feel all icky having to root for the Pennsylvania team.

I love me some end of the season Saturday football play.

**As long as I still also get my Bengals at 1pm on Sunday.

(12-21-2024, 02:36 PM)Whacked Wrote: I love me some end of the season Saturday football play.

**As long as I still also get my Bengals at 1pm on Sunday.

They play on Saturday next week. 

Think the Colts losing 1 will be tough to do.

Titans made a furious rally but it was too late. Have to play both halves.

(Yesterday, 06:03 PM)tBengal Wrote: Think the Colts losing 1 will be tough to do.

Titans made a furious rally but it was too late. Have to play both halves.

Wed: KC at Pitt 
Sat: Den at BENGALS 
Sun: Indy at NYG 

Root, root  root for the home teams. If SF TCB now, Miami won't matter.

It would be interesting if the Bengals make the playoffs, but I have no faith in our limp defense being meaningful in the postseason.

One thing to note when looking at playoff % chances. It doesn’t calculate probability but it calculates chance. Meaning, it doesn’t factor what’s likely to happen. Before today we needed 4 things to happen, we need to win 3x, Miami needs to lose any 1 game, colts lose any 1 game, Denver lose out. The probability of that happening is extremely low. The chance of each individual thing happening is 50%. So take the 0.5 x 4 and you get kit 6% chance. because we need 4 things to happen and all them are 50/50 outcome: yes or no.

As more of those 4 measurements begin to happen, our chances will only increase slightly, but I think the probability will increase even more so. To me our biggest challenges in order are: winning vs Denver, winning vs Pitt, indi L, mia L.

If after next week we win, Mia has 1 L and Ind has 1 L, our play off chances are 25%. I would personally guess our probability is probably closer to 50%.

Just some fun nerd math for a Sunday evening.

(Yesterday, 07:22 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: One thing to note when looking at playoff % chances. It doesn’t calculate  probability but it calculates chance. Meaning, it doesn’t factor what’s likely to happen. Before today we needed 4 things to happen, we need to win 3x, Miami needs to lose any 1 game, colts lose any 1 game, Denver lose out. The probability of that happening is extremely low. The chance of  each individual thing happening is 50%. So take the 0.5 x 4 and you get kit 6% chance. because we need 4 things to happen and all them are 50/50 outcome: yes or no.

As more of those 4 measurements begin to happen, our chances will only increase slightly, but I think the probability will increase even more so. To me our biggest challenges in order are: winning vs Denver, winning vs Pitt, indi L, mia L.  

If after next week we win, Mia has 1 L and Ind has 1 L, our play off chances are 25%. I would personally guess our probability is probably closer to 50%.

Just some fun nerd math for a Sunday evening.

Good stuff, I honestly don't see everything falling in place for it to happen, but it is fun to still be in the hunt this time of year after 
having such a terrible season Defensively. I thought Jerome Ford was going to run all over us and he pretty much did, but the Defense
only allowed one TD which isn't that bad even if the Browns Offense sucks.

Burrow is now only 1 TD away from 40 and Ja'Marr still has the triple crown in sight. 

(Yesterday, 07:22 PM)Ell Prez Wrote: One thing to note when looking at playoff % chances. It doesn’t calculate  probability but it calculates chance. Meaning, it doesn’t factor what’s likely to happen. Before today we needed 4 things to happen, we need to win 3x, Miami needs to lose any 1 game, colts lose any 1 game, Denver lose out. The probability of that happening is extremely low. The chance of  each individual thing happening is 50%. So take the 0.5 x 4 and you get kit 6% chance. because we need 4 things to happen and all them are 50/50 outcome: yes or no.

As more of those 4 measurements begin to happen, our chances will only increase slightly, but I think the probability will increase even more so. To me our biggest challenges in order are: winning vs Denver, winning vs Pitt, indi L, mia L.  

If after next week we win, Mia has 1 L and Ind has 1 L, our play off chances are 25%. I would personally guess our probability is probably closer to 50%.

Just some fun nerd math for a Sunday evening.

I don't know how the models work, but if you are calculating every games as 50/50, you get this: 

Bengals beat Denver (.5 chance)  x Bengals beat Steelers (0.5 chance)  x Chiefs beat Denver (0.5 chance).

The chances Indy wins out would be 25% (.5 x .5). So the chance they DON'T win out would be 75%. .75.

If you are 50/50 ing every game, the chances the Dolphins win out is 12.5% (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). The chances they don't? 87.5%.

So, 0.5 (Bengals beat Denver) x 0.5 (Bengals beat Steelers) x 0.5 (Chiefs beat Denver) x 0.75 (chance Colts fail to win out) x 0.875 (chances Miami fails to win out) = 0.08203125. 8.2%. 

I guess that does not account for ties. But that has to be less than 1% per game. WAY under. 

If Miami wins, our chances will go down. 

(11 hours ago)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I don't know how the models work, but if you are calculating every games as 50/50, you get this: 

Bengals beat Denver (.5 chance)  x Bengals beat Steelers (0.5 chance)  x Chiefs beat Denver (0.5 chance).

The chances Indy wins out would be 25% (.5 x .5). So the chance they DON'T win out would be 75%. .75.

If you are 50/50 ing every game, the chances the Dolphins win out is 12.5% (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). The chances they don't? 87.5%.

So, 0.5 (Bengals beat Denver) x 0.5 (Bengals beat Steelers) x 0.5 (Chiefs beat Denver) x 0.75 (chance Colts fail to win out) x 0.875 (chances Miami fails to win out) = 0.08203125. 8.2%. 

I guess that does not account for ties. But that has to be less than 1% per game. WAY under. 

If Miami wins, our chances will go down. 

I don’t know how they calculate it, but I’m certain they are calculating chance, not probability. And those are very different things. My math is right, the way I was grouping scenarios of mia getting 1 L or more, indi 1 L or more, etc.

Imagine if we just started the season just being average and not, yet again, a pile of dog mess. Never has been fixed

(11 hours ago)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Good stuff, I honestly don't see everything falling in place for it to happen, but it is fun to still be in the hunt this time of year after 
having such a terrible season Defensively. I thought Jerome Ford was going to run all over us and he pretty much did, but the Defense
only allowed one TD which isn't that bad even if the Browns Offense sucks.

Burrow is now only 1 TD away from 40 and Ja'Marr still has the triple crown in sight. 

Ja'Marr has a pretty nice lead for the triple crown. Since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970, there have only been 4 players who achieved that feat (Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith, Sr., and Cooper Kupp.)

Thank goodness for the last-minute 31-yard bomb to Chase for a TD. Justin Jefferson is on his heels for receiving yards.

(11 hours ago)Destro Wrote: Imagine if we just started the season just being average and not, yet again, a pile of dog mess. Never has been fixed

even if they started out beating the pats and chiefs, this defense is terrible and theyd be where the chargers or broncos are.  they wouldnt be going far in the playoffs