It looks like the cap for 2016 is going to be somewhere between 147-153 million. If we take the middle (150 million), that leaves us with roughly $32 million in cap space. So, the question is: is that enough to keep everyone that we want from the current team?


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/cincinnati-bengals/

Hall
Smith
Nelson
Rey
Adam Jones
Lamar
Gilberry
Sanu
Marvin Jones
Iloka
Brandon Thompson

Is this accounting for all these salaries coming off the books (including Leon's ridiculous $9 million)? Either way, I think people are sweating this wayyy too much. There's only a small handful of key players on there and only a couple of them are looking at big pay increases (think Iloka and Marvin Jones). Pacman isn't going anywhere. He's pretty old for a CB and his past will limit his market, driving down his price. Leon is due a huge pay decrease. I'm a little concerned that we could lose Nelson OR Iloka, but Nelson is nearing the end of his career so he shouldn't be hard to retain and I think we'll have a good shot at Iloka.

Marv Jones will likely be a priority and Sanu really hasn't done much to ensure a big FA payday. Other than Iloka, Pacman, MJ and Leon, I'm not too concerned about the rest. They're mostly replaceable. We should have enough to keep most of who we want though.

I think we get: Pacman, Illoka, Jones or Sanu, Gilberry, and Maybe Nelson or Hall .

Thompson will probably leave due to lack of reps. Much like the reason we lost Frostee and Sims before .

Rey and Lamur will get what they get.

I also can't imagine all these teams who are struggling for lineman won't throw a lot of cash at Andre. I'm sure he will get an offer like last time and he will sign or he won't .

(12-05-2015, 01:31 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: It looks like the cap for 2016 is going to be somewhere between 147-153 million.  If we take the middle (150 million), that leaves us with roughly $32 million in cap space.  So, the question is:  is that enough to keep everyone that we want from the current team?


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/cincinnati-bengals/

Hall
Smith
Nelson
Rey
Adam Jones
Lamar
Gilberry
Sanu
Marvin Jones
Iloka
Brandon Thompson

I believe the Bengals also have 4 to 6 million in carry over from 2015 to apply to their 2016 cap

There's a few calculators out there, it's an interesting quandary.

Leon will be most difficult. Nelson could be a challenge. Mj should be priority, and unless Sanu needs to move on, we can keep him on the cheap. Thompson doesn't offer enough tape to be much of an issue. Wallace is great depth, not starting material.

I'd like a change in drafting philosophy with regards to corners. We have two young future cornerstones, and a few worthwhile vets...I don't think we should sink so much capital (high draft picks) on that depth, moving forward.

Iloka is the absolute first priority, everyone else comes some way down the scale. Marvin Jones will get some attention too. I think we should be able to get the vast majority of the list back. Marvin Jones could be someone who may want to move on though, he does deserve to be a bigger part of an offense, and will be able to get that somewhere else.

(12-05-2015, 12:49 PM)BritishBengal Wrote: Iloka is the absolute first priority, everyone else comes some way down the scale. Marvin Jones will get some attention too. I think we should be able to get the vast majority of the list back. Marvin Jones could be someone who may want to move on though, he does deserve to be a bigger part of an offense, and will be able to get that somewhere else.

I think Marvin sees that a big part of his success is because he has AJ on the other side pretty much demanding all the attention from the other team, so I don't think he'll be too much trouble to sign and I don't think he'll try to threaten to go elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong because he's an amazing receiver and is great for the team, but he's a complimentary guy that owes a lot of his success to AJ.

It's kind of like when TJ wanted out so that he could be the #1 guy, only to find out that he wasn't good enough to be the #1 because it didn't match his skill set.

Jones might be able to be the #1 somewhere and play a bigger role, but why risk leaving something that works and that he's successful at?

Definitely need to keep Iloka because he's become a hell of a player and a big part of our D this season.

Definitely keep Jones and Hall (if that's true about his cap number going down), which I don't think either of them would make a move to another team this late in their career.

Gillberry might be nice to keep at a discounted rate as a situational pass rusher.

Smith seems like the type that might want big money and I don't see him getting it here.

We should be able to sign the core group of guys but we will lose some nice pieces. I imigane Iloka, Sanu, and Pacman will be top priorities. Marvin and Smith are going to get paid huge by someone else. I imagine we will sign Hall cheap and Gilberry should be re-signed. Vinny and Lamur might sign here but then again they might actually have a chance at starting somewhere else so they might leave. Nelson will be gone some team will give him big long term money for the year be has had.

Iloka is a top priority, but safeties are cheap compared to other positions. We should be able to re-sign him.

We all love Marvin Jones, but I don't see him demanding huge dollars on the open market. I say we keep him also.

I am thinking Smith is gone.

I'd love to bring back Hall if he would sign cheaply.

Nelson has been a key player in our defense. I think he has been one of the more underrated players on the team. I have no idea what he will getn on the open market. I love to keep him, but we can't re-sign everyone.

I think we re-sign Adam Jones. We gave him a chance when no one else would. And he is playing the best football of his career.

Iloka should be priority number one he's young and ranks high among safeties in the league. I like Nelson but he's 32 and you can't keep everybody. I think they will let Neslon walk and Williams will start next year, the team seems to really like him and he's done well when called upon. I would like to see packman  resigned to a two year deal because I'm not sold on Kirkpatrick and still dont know if Dennard can play. I would try to resign Hall if the money's right he's on the wrong side of 30 and has had injuries. Thompson is out the door he's a decent back up and can be replaced in the draft. Lamur if the money is cheap I feel like he's one of the most overrated players on the bengals. I would much rather them resign Vinny Rey team leader, good at special teams  , plays all 3 backer spots ,can call the defensive plays , can play all 3 downs ,and always comes up big when they need him. Smith is out the door either Fisher or Ogbuehi will start at right and Whit will bridge the gap at left for either Fisher or Ogbuehi. Far as wide out much rather have Jones back then Sanu. Jones is more of a complete revier and more consistent.

I have to think the team will draft either WR or safety anyhow unless they believe Denard cannot come back at the beginning of the season or Jones is gone.

As for the WRs, let's not forget that TJ was a coaching intern this offseason and was heavily in these guys ears about how chasing the money can make you less successful in your career. I remember an interview where he was open about telling guys about the dog and pony show he received in Seattle only to quickly realize that he was best suited for what was happening here.

MJ went through the same experience, and I'm sure will also be telling his cautionary tale as well.

A rather new phenomenon is starting to impact our ability to retain some of our players (and no I am not discounting economic motivations) in that if there is not a significant difference in value, our playoff/superbowl contending status really means something.

I guess what I am saying is that I am optimistic that we will be able to re-sign the majority….

My guess is we try to keep Illoka ($7), Nelson ($4), Pacman ($4) and Hall ($3), Gilberry ($3), MJ ($6-7 maybe less). MJ won't break the bank like some expect. He missed an entire season, and did next to nothing his rookie season. That's half of his nfl career, I'm struggling to find a good comparison, but even the most absurd homers should agree he hasn't come close to producing what torrey smith did for the ravens and smith got $8/yr so i expect jones will come in less than that. Illoka is tough to say some of the top S are getting close to 9-10 mil/yr but id say hes more in the 6-8 mil/yr group. I'm giving Pacman a decent raise, nelson about the same, Gilberry slight raise, Hall will be 31 and is not the same player he once was, although still very smart so I'm putting him in the same group we tend to pay a lot of vets at.

Total this comes to $28 mil and has us keeping all of our key guys with a few mil extra for some of the backups/role players and draft. I don't remember if we have rollover, but it is certainly possible to pay all the important guys with the $32ish mil we have.

I also have the feeling that most of these guys won't want to leave which should help us out, but we can certainly pay our biggest FA's a fair price in the offseason.We are also set up nicely to let Nelson, Gilberry, and Hall walk if need be to pay others.

(12-06-2015, 03:31 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: My guess is we try to keep Illoka ($7), Nelson ($4), Pacman ($4) and Hall ($3), Gilberry ($3), MJ ($6-7 maybe less). MJ won't break the bank like some expect. He missed an entire season, and did next to nothing his rookie season. That's half of his nfl career, I'm struggling to find a good comparison, but even the most absurd homers should agree he hasn't come close to producing what torrey smith did for the ravens and smith got $8/yr so i expect jones will come in less than that. Illoka is tough to say some of the top S are getting close to 9-10 mil/yr but id say hes more in the 6-8 mil/yr group. I'm giving Pacman a decent raise, nelson about the same, Gilberry slight raise, Hall will be 31 and is not the same player he once was, although still very smart so I'm putting him in the same group we tend to pay a lot of vets at.

Total this comes to $28 mil and has us keeping all of our key guys with a few mil extra for some of the backups/role players and draft. I don't remember if we have rollover, but it is certainly possible to pay all the important guys with the $32ish mil we have.

I also have the feeling that most of these guys won't want to leave which should help us out, but we can certainly pay our biggest FA's a fair price in the offseason.We are also set up nicely to let Nelson, Gilberry, and Hall walk if need be to pay others.

I like this but I think Reggie Nelson will demand more, he has 7 picks this year so far.

I also think we resign Sanu for around $3m too. You also got to think that we get more cap due to Hall, etc.

(12-06-2015, 04:25 PM)milksheikh Wrote: I like this but I think Reggie Nelson will demand more, he has 7 picks this year so far.

I also think we resign Sanu for around $3m too. You also got to think that we get more cap due to Hall, etc.

I agree, Reggie will get paid well. Sanu shouldn't cost too much but I hope they try hard to get MJ back even if it means no Sanu.

1) Iloka
2) Marvin Jones
3) Adam Jones
4) Reggie Nelson
5) Mo Sanu
6) Gilberry
7) Thompson

In light of the recent events, I think Adam Jones just got a tad bit easier to re-sign.

Don't forget some players will be up for extensions as well. Zeitler, Bernard, Kirkpatrick.

(12-05-2015, 01:31 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: It looks like the cap for 2016 is going to be somewhere between 147-153 million.  If we take the middle (150 million), that leaves us with roughly $32 million in cap space.  So, the question is:  is that enough to keep everyone that we want from the current team?


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/cincinnati-bengals/



Hall- sits stubbornly for a looong time, when he comes to his senses he comes back if Cincy hasn't moved on or retained Pacman 
Smith- Gone.  I know he came back before, but a tackle hungry team like Denver will give the guaranteed money Cincy won't
Nelson- likely Gone.  I want him back, but even with his age someone like Miami will frontload a deal to get one or two good years.
Rey- Gone.  I'm very happy with what he did as a Bengal but time to get paid as a starter to say the Vikes. 
Pacman- Left me sour, but I'm not done with him and neither are the Bengals.  If he doesn't get the right deal he comes back for 2 years. 
Lamur- He draws a lot of hate, but he's going to be one of those that sits a long time and may come back just to battle for a 53 spot.
Gilberry-Total wildcard.  They likely make him a mild priority but a cheap one, comes down to what they really think of Clarke or others.
Marvin Jones- sadly gone.  He's getting paid big, hard to pass that up and hard to justify paying that much with AJ, Eifert and other toys already.
Sanu- Stays.  Doesn't separate enough to get a big offer, but offers skills they'll find a way to use better with the loss of Jones, will draft a speed WR.
Iloka- A lock to stay.  They'll either franchise him or transition him and risk paying him more than they wanted to but they'll still match, can't lose him.
Brandon Thompson- See Lamur. DL talent was solid, but hard to justify paying much for a guy that never got PT.  Someone likely signs him but could return.

So the good news is that a few of these guys may be sitting for the first few days of FA

Filled in projections from link.  These are Early projections, they could fluctuate depending on if Cincy breaks from tradition and courts actual FA's themselves rather than messing with comp picks.  I think though that Marvin will get a big payday, Andre paid solid and guys like Vinny or Gilberry get a descent deal.  So that could line them up for another 3rd and 4th or 5th down the road.  It's not like they'll have a lot left over to play the FA game if they wanted to anyway, seeing as how some of it will need spent on guys like Dre and Gio.  I think that they actually give Dre a solid long term deal, no matter if he's been above average/solid so far, they just don't have the known stability at corner yet and don't want him being a UFA if Dennard or a rookie aren't proven in a year.  The fumble happened, but Gio may get a long term deal over Hill soon because they kept Zampese for stability.  If they're running the same offense, he will want Gio out there in the shotgun/no huddle and they'll let Hill play determined to redeem himself and get a new deal.  Zeitler is getting paid from someone but he's a guard, so if the two kids work out they are cheaper options along with an aging Whit for a few more seasons.  I'd jump on a descent deal now, but odds are they're miles away right now.  So if you've read this far and haven't given up as it sounds like some Hobson spin piece about how broke Cincy is...it's just repeating how the FO's mindset is and I really like it.  I'd sum it up like this: They're losing half their own FA's by the time the wrap up a few of their own, the excitement may be the "ring chasers" that get cut and are looking to contribute.  The board may split over that term being used for Cincy, the culture looked great up until the last game (primarily the ending), but the right LB with something left...more than just a Hawk type, or the right center or corner may see Cincy as a team they want to end their career with as a serious contender that THEY can make the difference and lead them to a playoff run...not just win.  So keep an eye on an old vet here and there as they continue to spend wisely and redshirt rookies. 

I'm not sure I see them allowing another team to go and poach Marvin Jones in free agency. After TJ left, this team hunted for a number 2 wideout for many seasons. They went through the Coles disappointment, the Bryant embarrassment, and the TO circus. They even tried to prop up Tate and Binns as viable NFL number 2 options.

I think they'll pay MLJ what it takes. He's good and he's a homegrown player. I don't see them being too eager to go on the hunt for another number 2 wr when they've raised one of there own right here.