(03-16-2016, 04:19 PM)PDub80 Wrote: I guess to some, FRED, that's God like.


Yeah, Justin Smith was a real killer. A salary cap killer for his production that is. Few big plays. Lots of UP field tackles after gains had been made. Best DE at chasing down a running back after a 5 yard gain I've ever seen. 

Just me 

and all the NFL teams that wanted him so badly in free agency 

and all the experts who ranked free agents.




But what do we all know.  Pretty silly not to realize that the only way to judge a DE is to go to the stat book and look up "sacks".  And of course stats don't even matter once he went to SF since they went down considerably. 

(03-16-2016, 05:03 PM)PDub80 Wrote: You bring up a good point about the safeties. I would LOVE to know how many times the Bengals had coverage where the safety was rolled over to help on Dre-K's side. 

Maybe it was something the safeties did all the time regardless of who was out there, though? It would be interesting see an overhead coaches film to specifically watch for that.

Indeed it would.....

(03-16-2016, 04:21 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Actually, that literally WAS HIS BEST SEASON.

2014 he was rated the 2nd to worst CB in the NFL.

2015 he was, like, 7th to worst. That's his best so far.

7.5 million a year for that production and there's Nelson,led the league in interceptions just waiting for a contract. he's got 2-3 more years left in the tank. 

(03-16-2016, 05:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Just me 

and all the NFL teams that wanted him so badly in free agency 

and all the experts who ranked free agents.




But what do we all know.  Pretty silly not to realize that the only way to judge a DE is to go to the stat book and look up "sacks".  And of course stats don't even matter once he went to SF since they went down considerably. 

While, yes, it is true that Justin Smith was the most sought after DE in 2008, the weight of that fact should be held against who else was a FA that year. Basically, it was a trash heap with Smith being the only strong player coming out of it. So, yeah, he was ranked as the best DE and, yeah, teams went after him.... Of course! Given the list below, who wouldn't? Again, Fred, supply vs. demand. Supply was awful so he was in the highest demand.

2008 NFL FA DEFENSIVE ENDS


1. Justin Smith
28
Cincinnati

2. Antwan Odom
26
Tennessee

3. Bobby McCray
26
Jacksonville

4. Chris Clemons
26
Oakland

5. Travis LaBoy
26
Tennessee

6. Marques Douglas
31
San Francisco

7. Kevin Carter
34
ex-Tampa Bay

8. Ebenezer Ekuban
31
Denver

9. James Hall
31
ex-St. Louis

10. Jimmy Wilkerson
27
Kansas City



^ BTW, for those saying the Bengals don't try in FA, notice the #2 ranked DE from that year. BURNT AGAIN! Damn it!!!!!!

- Also, please understand that I feel like Justin Smith was a great player.... as a 3-4 END for the 49ers. But as a 4-3 DE for the Bengals he was not living up to his Franchise Tag contract and in the years leading up seemed like he had totally plateaued into a middle of the pack player - again, in caps - FOR THE BENGALS.

- Ohhhhhhhhh, he had a bunch of tackles? Yaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy!!!!!!!  So did Landon Johnson. And he ran off for a big payday (for him), too. But just because the panthers threw a bunch on money at him, does that make Landon Johnson actually a great player all of a sudden? Hell no!

Besides the BS call in Tampa that kept the Bengals out of the playoffs, what I remember most from watching Justin Smith throughout his whole career was that he was really really good at chasing down running backs from behind after they had broken through the line of scrimmage. In the Bengals 4-3 he had become a chaser. Very very few impact plays: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, passes batted down, and sacks - as I have illustrated - were all low production for him. In Cincy's 4-3, Justin Smith was a middle of the road warm body who was durable and tried hard. In San Fran he was one of the best 3-4 Ends in the league. But, regardless of that, I only care about what he did in the Bengals system..... Not much impact.

But, wait, Fred... There's MOOOOORRRRRRRE!!!!!!!!!

Here is me blowing your mind and finally putting the nail in the coffin on your Justin Smith/Dre Kirk position in this. And, being a lawyer, I hope you can appreciate my Jack McCoying you so hard right now.

Which is it?

Dre Kirk is really good because he starts on a really good D?

Or Justin Smith is really bad because started on a really bad D, that only got better immediately after he left?

You see, in 2007 (Justin Smith's franchise tagged season) the Bengals D ranked 27th in the NFL in defense, 26th against the pass, & 21st against the run. http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/year/2007

But, in 2008 (Justin Smith's 1st year off the roster) the Bengals D ranked 12th in total defense, 15th against the pass, & 21st against the run. http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/netTotalYards/position/defense/year/2008

I think it is fair to warn you now that if you start to point out anything other than Justin Smith being OR NOT being on the roster in a starting role for reasons as to the entire defense improving or being bad than you have to acknowledge that your entire argument about the D being good = Dre Kirk being good because he starts on it is bull crap and illogical. And you must begin to acknowledge the fact that a good player can start on a bad defense just like a bad player can start on a good defense. And you must acknowledge that there are a lot of factors that go into the total performance of a defensive unit.

^ All of which opens the door to everyone else's argument that Dre Kirk sucks - while your defense of him has been myth busted. Poetically enough by your own admission of evidence in the form of one Justin Smith. Like I said... Jack McCoy'd

And now you must also say "I love crepes"

(03-17-2016, 11:03 AM)PDub80 Wrote: While, yes, it is true that Justin Smith was the most sought after DE in 2008, the weight of that fact should be held against who else was a FA that year. Basically, it was a trash heap with Smith being the only strong player coming out of it. So, yeah, he was ranked as the best DE and, yeah, teams went after him.... Of course! Given the list below, who wouldn't? Again, Fred, supply vs. demand. Supply was awful so he was in the highest demand.

2008 NFL FA DEFENSIVE ENDS


1. Justin Smith
28
Cincinnati

2. Antwan Odom
26
Tennessee

3. Bobby McCray
26
Jacksonville

4. Chris Clemons
26
Oakland

5. Travis LaBoy
26
Tennessee

6. Marques Douglas
31
San Francisco

7. Kevin Carter
34
ex-Tampa Bay

8. Ebenezer Ekuban
31
Denver

9. James Hall
31
ex-St. Louis

10. Jimmy Wilkerson
27
Kansas City

Wow what a brilliant argument.

Congratulations.  You just proved that Ndamukong Suh is not any good because there were not other good free agent DTs last year.

(03-17-2016, 11:03 AM)PDub80 Wrote: - Ohhhhhhhhh, he had a bunch of tackles? Yaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy!!!!!!!  So did Landon Johnson. And he ran off for a big payday (for him), too. But just because the panthers threw a bunch on money at him, does that make Landon Johnson actually a great player all of a sudden? Hell no!

What a brilliant foot ball mind you have.  Let's compare a guy who was 21st at his position (LB) in tackles while with the Bengals to a guy who was #1 in the entire leagu.  No difference there at all.

And lets compare a guy getting a 3 year $10 million deal to a guy getting a 6 year $45 million deal.  No difference there at all either.

(03-17-2016, 11:03 AM)PDub80 Wrote: And, being a lawyer, I hope you can appreciate my Jack McCoying you so hard right now.

Which is it?

Dre Kirk is really good because he starts on a really good D?

Or Justin Smith is really bad because started on a really bad D, that only got better immediately after he left?

Actually as a person with a high school level of logical arguments I am laughing at you right now.

"If A then B" can not be used to prove "If not A then not B".  You can not use two opposite fact patterns to prove the same point.

The fact that Dre starts on a good defense is important because if he was bad teams would pick on him and gain yards.  But, while Justin Smith was an elite player offenses simple avoided him to pick on weaker parts of the defense.

I know that not every player on a good defense is automatically good.  But when I watch the Bengals it is clear that opposing QBs are not able to just pick on Dre to drive down the field and score.

(03-17-2016, 11:03 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Besides the BS call in Tampa that kept the Bengals out of the playoffs, what I remember most from watching Justin Smith throughout his whole career was that he was really really good at chasing down running backs from behind after they had broken through the line of scrimmage.

Right. That is because teams were running away from him.  

I don't know why the ability to shed a blocker and run down the ball carrier is bad in any way.

(03-16-2016, 05:03 PM)PDub80 Wrote: You bring up a good point about the safeties. I would LOVE to know how many times the Bengals had coverage where the safety was rolled over to help on Dre-K's side. 

Maybe it was something the safeties did all the time regardless of who was out there, though? It would be interesting see an overhead coaches film to specifically watch for that.

Interesting question.

Just think if this film shows that the coverage ability of the starting CB was really meaningless.  We could change the entire league.  CBs would no longer be the highest paid players on a defense.  Instead they could all be replaced with extra LBs to help against the run while the safeties covered all the receivers.

(03-17-2016, 01:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually as a person with a high school level of logical arguments I am laughing at you right now.

"If A then B" can not be used to prove "If not A then not B".  You can not use two opposite fact patterns to prove the same point.

The fact that Dre starts on a good defense is important because if he was bad teams would pick on him and gain yards.  But, while Justin Smith was an elite player offenses simple avoided him to pick on weaker parts of the defense.

I know that not every player on a good defense is automatically good.  But when I watch the Bengals it is clear that opposing QBs are not able to just pick on Dre to drive down the field and score.

- Don't pick on Dre K? Uncross your eyes. The hell they don't! Who did they pick on? Pacman? Nelson? Pffffft!

- I used those examples because it refutes what your entire opposition to the idea that Dre K sucks is based on the fact that the Bengals D as a whole is good so, therefore, he must be good or he wouldn't be out there. Yet you ignore the possibility that he could be a bad player on a good defense. You are using circular logic that doesn't even complete it's entire circle because it doesn't make sense to begin with.



- Your made up claim that teams schemed away from Justin Smith is bogus.

Weird how teams "avoided Justin Smith" but he led all DEs in tackles. That doesn't make any sense unless you're proposing that he ran down all of those tackles in the middle or opposite end of the field. Come on, man. That's absurd.

Not only is it absurd, but unsubstantiated unless you can show some sort of data or video proof of it. Otherwise it's just made up.


Here, I'll make one up.... Dre Kirkpatrick was the 3rd most penalized player in the NFL last season and 3rd most penalized in amount of yards. Oh, wait a sec... I didn't make that up. it's 100% true!!!!! http://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties-player.html


^ You know, because who would pick on the 2nd most penalized CB in the entire NFL? Other teams aren't smart enough to do that, are they? This just in: He holds and has illegal contact penalties and PI flags because... Wait for it..... Wait for it... HE'S POOP!!!!!!!!!!!

I actually thought Dre improved quite a bit this year. It takes time and experience to become a good CB in the NFL. Even Adam Jones, who just a few years ago was a pretty average CB, now is one of the best. I'm betting Dre has his best season yet this upcoming year.  

(03-17-2016, 01:52 PM)PDub80 Wrote: - Don't pick on Dre K? Uncross your eyes. The hell they don't! Who did they pick on? Pacman? Nelson? Pffffft!

Of course they threw at him moor than the better CBs.  I have never denied that.  

The point I was making was that they were not able to drive down the field consistently or score a lot of points by doing this.  And that is exactly what would have happened if Dre was the worst CB in the league.

Get it now?   You have to understand what I am saying before you can argue with me.

(03-17-2016, 01:52 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Here, I'll make one up.... Dre Kirkpatrick was the 3rd most penalized player in the NFL last season and 3rd most penalized in amount of yards. Oh, wait a sec... I didn't make that up. it's 100% true!!!!! http://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties-player.html


^ You know, because who would pick on the 2nd most penalized CB in the entire NFL? Other teams aren't smart enough to do that, are they? This just in: He holds and has illegal contact penalties and PI flags because... Wait for it..... Wait for it... HE'S POOP!!!!!!!!!!!

And the #1 most penalized CB was.....wait for it.........AQIB TALIB.


And there you have it folks.  Since Pdub relies on esoteric meaningless stats like penalties to prove which CB is best he has 100% proven that Aqib Talib is not only total POOP, but he is actually a WORSE CB THAN DRE KIRKPATRICK.

What brilliant logic.

(03-17-2016, 02:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Of course they threw at him mpore than the better CBs.  I have never denied that.  The point I was making was that they were not able to drive down the field or score a lot of points by doing this.
And that is exactly what would have happened if Dre was the worst CB in the league.
get it now?   You have to understand what I am saying before you can argue with me.

You are pointing at team results rather than individual performance. I 100% get that and I am not saying the D is bad with or without him. It is excellent. I am just saying he needs serious improvement.

He makes plays sometimes and they are really impressive. Then, other times I'm scratching my head.

3rd most penalized player in the entire NFL last season. And they weren't just personal fouls. These were mostly holding, illegal contact, and pass interference. That is horrible.

I think the immediate relevance to the question is: He is going to want paid after this season. Starting CB on a great D is going to want a lot of money. Do they draft a guy high and bump up Shaw or Dennard? Or Pay Dre K? To that degree and that amount of money I think that's a hell no!

I think he is not very good compared to the caliber of the other guys on D and would understand if they took a CB early with the plan to let him leave.

(03-17-2016, 01:52 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Weird how teams "avoided Justin Smith" but he led all DEs in tackles. That doesn't make any sense unless you're proposing that he ran down all of those tackles in the middle or opposite end of the field. Come on, man. That's absurd.

Not only is it absurd, but unsubstantiated unless you can show some sort of data or video proof of it. Otherwise it's just made up.

Sorry, all I have is this.  .  .  

(03-17-2016, 11:03 AM)PDub80 Wrote: what I remember most from watching Justin Smith throughout his whole career was that he was really really good at chasing down running backs from behind after they had broken through the line of scrimmage.

(03-17-2016, 02:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And the #1 most penalized CB was.....wait for it.........AQIB TALIB.


And there you have it folks.  Since Pdub relies on esoteric meaningless stats like penalties to prove which CB is best he has 100% proven that Aqib Talib is not only total POOP, but he is actually a WORSE CB THAN DRE KIRKPATRICK.

What brilliant logic.

OUT AND OUT FALSE, FRED. Are you lying on purpose? Are you on drugs? Did you even click the link? Talib is nowhere close to #1. That was Brandon Browner. Talib was way down there with 9 penalties. Also, look at the TYPE of penalties as well. 3 out of Talib's 9 were for Unnecessary roughness. That is not from getting beaten like illegal contact, holding, or PI would be.

(03-17-2016, 02:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry, all I have is this.  .  .  

I also have statistics showing he wasn't stopping them in the backfield. That and years of the Bengals D being in the garbage can with him starting at DE.

All you have is......

(03-17-2016, 02:30 PM)PDub80 Wrote: You are pointing at team results rather than individual performance.

No I am not.

I am specifically talking about when QBs threw at Dre.  They did not consistently drive down the field or score when they tried that.  This would show up as poor team stats, but I am specifically talking about what Dre did, not the rest of the team.

The numbers are out there.  People keep track of individual coverage stats. I have seen stats like "passer rating allowed" by individual player.  I just don't have the access to them right now.

(03-17-2016, 02:40 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Weird, you have access to you lying about Aqib Talib being the #1 most penalized CB.

You are correct.

I was relying on the stats from back in the season when I first saw this argument.  At that time Talib had more penalties than Dre.  But they ended up with almost exactly the same number.  Dre had 13 and Talib had 12.


So while I was wrong about Talib having more penalties than Dre my point still stands.  Penalties are a stupid way to judge CBs unless you think Talib sucks

(03-17-2016, 02:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are correct.

I was relying on the stats from back in the season when I first saw this argument.  At that time Talib had more penalties than Dre.  But they ended up with almost exactly the same number.  Dre had 13 and Talib had 12.


So while I was wrong about Talib having more penalties than Dre my point still stands.  Penalties are a stupid way to judge CBs unless you think Talib sucks

I deleted my post on the above.

I don't think it's stupid when you look at the type of penalties they are.

In the first game in Oakland this past season the Bengals had the Raiders stopped and were given a first down because of Dre K celebrating. They scored a TD off of that because of the penalty. While that is a boneheaded type of penalty, I don't count that when I consider quality of play. That happened AFTER a play. Just like when Burfict led the NFL in penalties in 2013 (I think). Only, like, 3 or something were actually during a play.

Talib is a really good CB. With Dre Kirk it is the totality of it. I'll buy a PFF membership so we can hash out the stats and get down to it.

I don't care about being right. I care about getting it right. I think that will be the only place with stats like what you are wanting to see. To me, it comes down to paying him for what he is after 5 years in the league vs. projecting what Shaw (whom I think will be a great player) or Dennard will be and drafting a CB early on top of them as well.