(03-21-2016, 11:38 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If he got pulled from a game in 2014 for injury, it went unreported because the season ended, or was cramps or something.

You're comparing one game at the end of a season against an ENTIRE season. I don't buy that he was hurt for half or an entire season and the Bengals never listed him on the injury report. The Bengals don't play Patriots games with their injury report.

Come on man..read what you just typed...He got hurt in the 2014 playoff game and it was a lingering injury into the 2015 season...As I said earlier Lapham mentioned many times last year thru the first 6 weeks or so that he could see it in practice and even in the locker room just walking around...They guy was basically limping (a hitch in the giddy up as Lapham said) every day...Not making excuses just saying that I believe from what I observed and heard that the guy was not 100%... Maybe he was injured but the doctors said he could play thru it with no further injuries...I have no idea but I clearly did not see the same player last year that I saw the year before...Just getting outside and exploding like before...That extra gear...


BTW thanks for backing up the stats on GIO between the tackles!!

(03-21-2016, 11:03 AM)BengalChris Wrote: I trust my eyes more that someone else's numbers.

Ok..check out the numbers Leonard listed then...trust your eyes all you want...the facts have spoken....These are not stats that have variances...He did or he didn't...plain and simple

Since we're talking about who should start, maybe we should look at their stats in their starts?

Gio
10 starts
14.6 carries per start
54.1 yards per start
0.5 TD's per start
3.71 yards per carry in starts

Hill
23 starts
15.6 carries per start
68.7 yards per start
0.61 TDs per start
4.42 yards per carry in starts

Even if you only include Hill's 2015 starts, his YPC (3.74) is just as good as Gio's in his starts.

(03-21-2016, 12:20 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Since we're talking about who should start, maybe we should look at their stats in their starts?

Gio
10 starts
14.6 carries per start
54.1 yards per start
0.5 TD's per start
3.71 yards per carry in starts

Hill
23 starts
15.6 carries per start
68.7 yards per start
0.61 TDs per start
4.42 yards per carry in starts

Even if you only include Hill's 2015 starts, his YPC (3.74) is just as good as Gio's in his starts.

I dont like the word "start". The thread should be, who gets the majority of carries. Starting has nothing to do with it. 

If you look at last years production, Gio should get more carries next year than Hill. They will no doubt split time, which they should, but Gio should be in the game more and in crucial situations. 

Gio 

Attempts - 154
Yards - 730 
AVG - 4.7
Rec - 49
Yards - 473

Hill 

Attempts  - 223
Yards - 794
AVG - 3.6 
Rec - 15
Yards - 79

(03-21-2016, 09:34 AM)Au165 Wrote: If you start Hill then you need to let him get more carries and get into a rhythm. Pulling guys out every other series doesn't let anyone get in a rhythm, Hill seems like the kind of guy who gains steam as he gets more carries.

I have not seen this at all.  Many of Hill's longest runs came early in the games.

(03-21-2016, 10:17 AM)CageTheBengal Wrote: I don't think it matters they're splitting carries.

Remember when Gio was considered trash after his 2nd season by most forums goers standards and Hill was just so good Gio should've rode the bench? Some of you guys waffle back and forth so much.

Exactly.  There were people last year at this time arguing that Gio should be released.  Those were only the most extreme, but a majority was crying about Gio getting too many carries.

(03-21-2016, 12:26 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I dont like the word "start". The thread should be, who gets the majority of carries. Starting has nothing to do with it. 

If you look at last years production, Gio should get more carries next year than Hill. They will no doubt split time, which they should, but Gio should be in the game more and in crucial situations. 

Gio 

Attempts - 154
Yards - 730 
AVG - 4.7
Rec - 49
Yards - 473

Hill 

Attempts  - 223
Yards - 794
AVG - 3.6 
Rec - 15
Yards - 79

Completely agree.  It is about who gets more carries.  I also think we need to remember that Hill had a number of very low yardage touchdowns last year which skew those numbers for him.  I don't know the exact numbers, but it seemed like Hill got the ball inside of the five yard line quite a bit last year.  Obviously those are important yards, but they do make his numbers look better than they actually are.

(03-21-2016, 12:31 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: Completely agree.  It is about who gets more carries.  I also think we need to remember that Hill had a number of very low yardage touchdowns last year which skew those numbers for him.  I don't know the exact numbers, but it seemed like Hill got the ball inside of the five yard line quite a bit last year.  Obviously those are important yards, but they do make his numbers look better than they actually are.

Yep. 

I think statistically, especially for running backs, touchdowns are the most misunderstood and overvalued stat out there. 

Basing a running backs performance and ability based solely or largely on his touchdown production is absolutely asinine. 

(03-21-2016, 12:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Exactly.  There were people last year at this time arguing that Gio should be released.  Those were only the most extreme, but a majority was crying about Gio getting too many carries.

It was the notion that Hue Jackson couldn't be trusted and/or was a moron.  The key to victory in 2015 was to play defense and give the ball to Hill a ridiculous number of times...also, Hill will stop fumbling because magic!  Then 2015 comes and Hill stinks, still fumbles, and Andy has a near MVP season.

Go figure.  Well, now Hue isn't around to get cute and do anything but call run plays to Hill BUT Hill isn't good now.  Hmm...

(03-21-2016, 11:25 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The point is, Hill is NOT a good runner up the middle. He never has been. It is actually his worst direction to run, and he is below 3.8 YPC in TWO of the three directions in between the tackles.... Gio is a superior runner up the middle with above a 4.2 YPC in all three of the directions in between the tackles.. Someone started this whole "oh, Gio needs to go outside and Hill up the middle" talk and it apparently became "fact" somewhere along the lines, but it's utter nonsense.

Hill's average up the middle is skewed because he carried the ball more in short yardage situations.

Over the last two season Hill has carried more than twice as often as Gio (74 to 36) when there was 2 yards or less needed for a firstdown/touchdown.

That being said I do believe that Gio can be effective running up the middle.  A smaller back is often able to hit the hole quicker than a big back which can be an advantage running up the middle.  But those type of runs also wear smaller backs down faster.  So I have no problem with Gio running up the middle as long as he is not doing it 10-15 times a game.

(03-21-2016, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hill's average up the middle is skewed because he carried the ball more in short yardage situations.

Over the last two season Hill has carried more than twice as often as Gio (74 to 36) when there was 2 yards or less needed for a firstdown/touchdown.

That being said I do believe that Gio can be effective running up the middle.  A smaller back is often able to hit the hole quicker than a big back which can be an advantage running up the middle.  But those type of runs also wear smaller backs down faster.  So I have no problem with Gio running up the middle as long as he is not doing it 10-15 times a game.

Just for comparison, I did a quick Google search of Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders in size comparison to Gio.  Gio is 5'9" and weighs 208 pounds.  Emmitt was 5'9" and weighed 216, Barry 5'8" and weighed 200 pounds.  I am not sure how much we need to worry about his size.

(03-21-2016, 09:15 AM)milksheikh Wrote: Who do you guys think should start next season?

Jeremy Hill or Giovani Bernard? To be honest, I want to see if Hill can come out and be motivated but I'm just not sure.

I honestly think Gio deserves the starting position, putting up another 1000+ yards from scrimmage and averaging 4.7 yards per run.

i dont think either should be the offical "starter" but they should be played based on the situation at hand.

Really Hill should be the grider and gio the 3rd down guy. (or at least how i originally saw it) But if hill continues his struggles then gio all the way.

If the interior line is better at run blocking, it doesnt matter who starts as both would be more productive than last year. The run blocking last year wasnt good overall. It wasnt terrible either, but we were an average running team with two starting caliber backs. Some will point at the coaching which I wont argue with, but the talent just wasnt there up front from what I saw to be a top 5 rushing caliber offense.

Ya know, having an argument over which talented RB should start is a very good problem the Bengals have.....just looking at positives right now

(03-21-2016, 12:12 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Come on man..read what you just typed...He got hurt in the 2014 playoff game and it was a lingering injury into the 2015 season...As I said earlier Lapham mentioned many times last year thru the first 6 weeks or so that he could see it in practice and even in the locker room just walking around...They guy was basically limping (a hitch in the giddy up as Lapham said) every day...Not making excuses just saying that I believe from what I observed and heard that the guy was not 100%... Maybe he was injured but the doctors said he could play thru it with no further injuries...I have no idea but I clearly did not see the same player last year that I saw the year before...Just getting outside and exploding like before...That extra gear...


BTW thanks for backing up the stats on GIO between the tackles!!

So you're saying what you're proposing for Hill's phantom injury is that he had a 9.5 month lingering unreported injury?

Now YOU are the one who needs to read what you just typed. 9.5 months (2014 playoff game to Week 7 in 2015 because of the mention of the 6 week hitch thing) of lingering injury that goes unreported on the injury report and continues to effect another 2+ months at least? That's not a lingering injury, that'd be being hurt for almost an entire calendar year. There's no way that doesn't get reported.

Terrell Suggs returned from a torn achilles in 5 months.
Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned in 8.5 months to rush for just shy of 2,100 yards and win an MVP.

Yet Jeremy Hill's theoretical lingering non-reported injury took like 11.5 months in order for him to finally get a rush of 20+ yards? Thin. Real thin.



- - --
No problem with the Gio stats. Bugs me every time people bring that up. Gio is basically a Ray Rice clone, sans the wife beating, and nobody claimed Ray Rice couldn't run between the tackles.

Where is the Zeke Elliott option?

(03-21-2016, 01:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Where is the Zeke Elliott option?

Probably in some alternate universe where the Bengals have a top 10 pick?

I will say when I first watched Hill run in the NFL I thought to myself that he is less powerful and more fluid as a runner than I supposed. I would love to get a pure power runner/fullback option. Hewitt is very good at what he does, but we have to use an lineman when we want to power the ball

All I know is Hill looked like he was running with cowboy boots on through wet sand for much of last season.....and of course "the fumble". Gio+1 until Hill can prove he is the better option.... And not lose the ball in the worst possible moment.

Can we please get past the high school mentality of "starting running back"..... we have two, the spit carries based on the what the defenses weaknesses are.... simple as that.