(04-06-2016, 11:52 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: He had a few big hits, but look at his highlights from 2015 and tell me how many spectacular plays you see that can't be replaced without signing or drafting a HOFer.

Most of his interceptions were just from him playing center field or even man coverage and the ball being a horrible throw.  Notice that, if he had better hands, he would have had a few more, easily.  

He is a solid hitter, I'll give you that.

He was a decent player, maybe even above-average, but you can't say that it will be that difficult to replace.

Got to disagree with you Brad. I think we'll have a decent replacement for him with Shawn, but it will not be the same. We have not had a safety of his quality since Fulcher.

He had a couple of rough patches, but for the most part was totally reliable and made a lot of clutch plays. I get that he is old, but he was playing pro bowl level ball in 2015.

If the offer was close to ours it was a mistake to let him go.

(04-06-2016, 11:52 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Most of his interceptions were just from him playing center field or even man coverage and the ball being a horrible throw.  Notice that, if he had better hands, he would have had a few more, easily.  

There is a lot more to it than that.  He was brilliant at getting in the right position to make all of those picks.

Reggie doesn't just have the most interceptions by any safety last year.  He also has the most interception by any safety over the last 2 years.  .  .  and the last 3 years.  .  .  and the last 4 years.  .  .  and the last 5 years.  Ever since he became the full time starter for the Bengals in 2011.  

Over that span he is also number ones among all safeties in passes defended and top 10 in tackles, sacks, and fumbles recovered.

That isn't just random "luck".

(04-07-2016, 01:38 AM)fredtoast Wrote: There is a lot more to it than that.  He was brilliant at getting in the right position to make all of those picks.

Reggie doesn't just have the most interceptions by any safety last year.  He also has the most interception by any safety over the last 2 years.  .  .  and the last 3 years.  .  .  and the last 4 years.  .  .  and the last 5 years.  Ever since he became the full time starter for the Bengals in 2011.  

Over that span he is also number ones among all safeties in passes defended and top 10 in tackles, sacks, and fumbles recovered.

That isn't just random "luck".

Considering that's a misleading stat because he never had more than 4 in a single season, it does seem like having 8 last season was more of luck.

Also, watch most of his picks from last year and realize that most of them, as I mentioned, were just overthrown balls or balls thrown to where he didn't need to make big plays and was just in the same position that any safety would have been.

(04-07-2016, 02:02 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Considering that's a misleading stat because he never had more than 4 in a single season, it does seem like having 8 last season was more of luck.

Also, watch most of his picks from last year and realize that most of them, as I mentioned, were just overthrown balls or balls thrown to where he didn't need to make big plays and was just in the same position that any safety would have been.

I don't know . I just think he was a very smart player and knew the system inside out and also was probably good breaking down QB tendencies (at the very least he certainly seemed to know where Big Ben wanted to be looking).

If it looks like he just happens to be in the right place at the right time then that was occurring quite a bit and can't always be good luck.

OK..he was not necessarily the flashiest player and no freelancing Polamalu type but both ZImmer and GUenther seemed to want the Offense to work the whole length of the field and having a disciplined Reggie Nelson always sitting on the top of routes was a key part of that.

Anyways he is gone now, great production, great value from a trade, great durability..... and now great expectations upon Williams!!

Hope this doesn't come back & bite the Bengals in the A$$

(04-06-2016, 08:29 PM)milksheikh Wrote: Reggie Nelson has signed a 2 year deal with Raiders.

Oh welll..I actually don't care if we signed him or not. I preferred us not to, I want to see what Shawn Williams can do

I'd prefer to keep the Pro Bowler until the kid can prove he can take his place......

(04-07-2016, 02:02 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Considering that's a misleading stat because he never had more than 4 in a single season, it does seem like having 8 last season was more of luck.

Also, watch most of his picks from last year and realize that most of them, as I mentioned, were just overthrown balls or balls thrown to where he didn't need to make big plays and was just in the same position that any safety would have been.

Brad, I usually don't disagree with much of what you type, but you are dead wrong on this one. Reggie was and is a special player. You don't "just get" interceptions in the NFL by being in the right spot randomly, you get them by "knowing" where to be and having the ability to get there, and by hitting so hard the reciever doesn't really want to be there. Mid season we are all going to be on here moaning over the fact Nelson is no longer here. No knock on Williams, but he does not have Nelson's knowledge, experience, or durability.

At this point I'm going to concede that it's the injury + age that prevented them from resigning him.

This other talk about "luck" is garbage.

He may have lost a step and made some bad angles but I'm pretty sure that "luck" you speak of help make up for it routinely.

we probably offered him the same deal or something close. I guess he chose to go to the Raiders where he might see more playing time. Pretty whack if you ask me, if you were to offer me the same amount as another company but require me to work less id be all over that.

(04-07-2016, 02:02 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Considering that's a misleading stat because he never had more than 4 in a single season, it does seem like having 8 last season was more of luck.

Also, watch most of his picks from last year and realize that most of them, as I mentioned, were just overthrown balls or balls thrown to where he didn't need to make big plays and was just in the same position that any safety would have been.

That has to be the dumbest thing I've read on this board. If that's the case, why don't all the other safetys in the league to the same thing and get a bunch of INTS?

(04-07-2016, 09:26 AM)BengalsRocker Wrote: At this point I'm going to concede that it's the injury + age that prevented them from resigning him.

This other talk about "luck" is garbage.

He may have lost a step and made some bad angles but I'm pretty sure that "luck" you speak of help make up for it routinely.

I'm with you.  A great player, with that much experience doesn't rely on "luck" to be in a position to make a play.  He has a tremendous football IQ, because he studies the game, and knows where to be, to have himself in position to make a play.

(04-07-2016, 08:43 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I'd prefer to keep the Pro Bowler until the kid can prove he can take his place......

How do you prove the "kid" can take his place until he plays? Maybe he did prove it to coaches? You realize in limited action Williams had 2 ints and 30 tackles?  

I can't believe I am going to do this, but Brad is right when it comes to ints being about luck to an extent. Nelson is historically a 2-4 int a year safety. A double up on a single year is a statistical anomaly rather than who he "really" is. Nelson had a great year last year, but that probably isn't who he is going forward.

When you take Nelson's average of 2-4 ints a year it makes Williams look even more impressive in his limited action, especially when you look at the diving int he made against the Steelers.

(04-07-2016, 09:56 AM)Au165 Wrote: How do you prove the "kid" can take his place until he plays? Maybe he did prove it to coaches? You realize in limited action Williams had 2 ints and 30 tackles?  

Williams showed some significant development, in his role off of the bench.  However, it is much tougher to be "the man" on a game in, game out basis, than it is to look like a super star in a supporting role.

Likely why the team make Iloka an offer he couldn't refuse, when Reggie did not bite on the 2 year offer.  Now, at least they have one proven starter that has shown he can maintain at a high level. 

So now, Derron Smith is our super star on the bench.  After that, the cupboard is pretty bare.  Time to stock the shelves.

(04-07-2016, 02:02 AM)BFritz21 Wrote:  he didn't need to make big plays and was just in the same position that any safety would have been.

Nope.  If every other safety would have been in that position then every other safety would have a lot more interception.  It isn't like opposing QBs only make bad passes against the Bengals.

You also have to look at passes defended.  Reggie gets his hands on more passes than any other safety in the league.  That has to do with cover skills, not just luck.

I agree that he probably will not have 8 picks next year.  But when you look at a five year span and he leads the league then it is not just random.  

(04-07-2016, 10:00 AM)Au165 Wrote: I can't believe I am going to do this, but Brad is right when it comes to ints being about luck to an extent. Nelson is historically a 2-4 int a year safety. A double up on a single year is a statistical anomaly rather than who he "really" is.

I agree with Brad that 8 picks in an anomaly.  But look at his 55 passes defended since he became a full time starter for the Bengals in 2011.  That is also number one among safeties.  And that has more to do with coverage skills than just luck.

During that stretch he is also top ten among safeties in tackles, sacks, and fumbles recovered.  those number are pretty impressive when you take into account that he was not an "in the box" type safety that usually rack up big tackle numbers.

(04-07-2016, 08:43 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I'd prefer to keep the Pro Bowler until the kid can prove he can take his place......

If you keep the Pro Bowler then the kid never gets a chance to prove anything.  Then you end up holding on to a player too long and paying top price for a guy who is over the hill.

I loike Reggie a lot, but this is the way it works in the NFL.  Reggie may be like Brian Dawkins and play at a high level for years to come.  In fact I hope he does as long as it is not against the Bengals.  But in general it is usually better to let a guy go a year early instead of a year late.

(04-06-2016, 10:58 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Dude's 32 and, while he was decent for us, I don't think he was anything that special.

People look at him leading the team in interceptions and flip-out, but look at them all and realize that they were mostly just bad passes where he didn't do anything special.

I'm not worried about losing him.

Is this a troll post?

(04-07-2016, 08:43 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I'd prefer to keep the Pro Bowler until the kid can prove he can take his place......

Shawn Williams will be a FA after this season, don't you want to see what he can do?

(04-06-2016, 11:52 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: He had a few big hits, but look at his highlights from 2015 and tell me how many spectacular plays you see that can't be replaced without signing or drafting a HOFer.

Most of his interceptions were just from him playing center field or even man coverage and the ball being a horrible throw.  Notice that, if he had better hands, he would have had a few more, easily.  

He is a solid hitter, I'll give you that.

He was a decent player, maybe even above-average, but you can't say that it will be that difficult to replace.

I guess in your opinion Ed Reed was a chump too. Youre oblivious Brad.