(04-10-2017, 03:05 PM)BigSeph Wrote: I would guarantee that I've watched more tape of AJM's NFL games than everyone else on this forum combined.

So don't tell me to "watch the tape" when I've gone through every single play of AJM's NFL career multiple times with other posters on this forum, and pointed out why everything you say is simply not true.

I would say that anyone with any intelligence or understanding of NFL football realizes that AJM is going to be a very good NFL QB, and given the performances of Andy vs AJ thus far in their careers, AJM has the higher ceiling.

He lacks Andy's experience in dealing with NFL defenses, and his arm is slightly worse on deep routes than Andy's.  He also lacks Andy's perpetual ability to choke in big moments.

You can't teach intangibles.

AJM will go somewhere else one day and every one of you who's been bashing him will be eating crow.  He will be a winning NFL QB.  Maybe Alex Smith level, a guy who can win games with a competent defense and offensive-minded coach.  Maybe Tom Brady level, as AJM's first year rate stats look exactly like Tom Brady's.  Nobody knows.

But there is a ceiling for AJM that Andy Dalton doesn't have, and will never have.

Yeah...pet peeve of mine is comparing stats of a current generation of players to guys stats of 15-20 years ago. The NFL has changed. The rule changes, etc.

Guys throw more TD's now and put up more yards.

Look at Troy Aikman's career stats. (165 TD/141 INT) then look at a guy like Dalton (142 TD/81 INT).

Does that mean Dalton is considerably better than Aikman? No. They played in an era where the rules weren't as pass friendly.

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I think McCarron could go somewhere and be an above average Pro QB...

Dalton definitely has a stronger arm than McCarron. I don't see McCarron being able to step into a team as devoid of talent as a rookie and lead them to the playoffs like Dalton did.

Even on his Alabama teams...McCarron was a game manager on loaded teams. To think he's a sure bet to become an elite or even really good QB isn't realistic.

Do I think he could start somewhere and put up 3500-3700 yards and throw 25 TD's...YES. It's a passing league.

(04-10-2017, 04:02 PM)McC Wrote: You're making a whole lot of assumptions which may or not be supported by evidence.  IMO, the most accurate statement you can make about him is that he did a pretty good job, considering. 

He did not set the world on fire.  Predicting he'll be good is not different that predicting he won't.  Bth are just guesses and there is evidence both ways.  And the evidence, btw, is limited at best.

He does have intangibles.  He has a lot of heart and a lot of confidence.  Being a scrapper might be his biggest asset.  His intangibles might outweigh his tangibles, though.  At this point, it's all just speculation.  There will be a lot of factors that will play into the ultimate outcome and those factors are not even established yet.

And he also had a REALLY scaled down playbook for his playing time.

When guys come in and don't have a strong arm and aren't as physically talented...intangibles is ALWAYS what people say they have.

Well intangibles are good...but in college you have about a 6 foot window to put the ball in to the receiver. In the Pro's...that window is about 2 feet.

The scaled down playbook limited McCarrons weakness of arm strength. That's going to get exposed if he is a starter somewhere...then it's up to the OC if they can be creative enough to hide it.

I think time has shown that you need to strike when the iron is hot and trade your backup QB/young stud when you can get value.

Think about it - when was the last time a young back up with limited playing time actually turned out to be a franchise QB or even a top 15 QB?

The odds are that McCarron will never turn out to be anything but an average QB if he gets traded.

(04-10-2017, 04:02 PM)McC Wrote: You're making a whole lot of assumptions which may or not be supported by evidence.  IMO, the most accurate statement you can make about him is that he did a pretty good job, considering. 

He did not set the world on fire.  Predicting he'll be good is not different that predicting he won't.  Bth are just guesses and there is evidence both ways.  And the evidence, btw, is limited at best.

He does have intangibles.  He has a lot of heart and a lot of confidence.  Being a scrapper might be his biggest asset.  His intangibles might outweigh his tangibles, though.  At this point, it's all just speculation.  There will be a lot of factors that will play into the ultimate outcome and those factors are not even established yet.

League history is littered with QBs whose intangibles outweighed their tangible physical skills.

QBs like Tom Brady and Drew Brees actually improved their arm strength over time in the league, neither was viewed to have superior physical talents at QB entering the league.

Dalton himself has gained arm strength since he started working with Tom House (AJM works with House as well, and that's who Brady and Brees worked with).

I agree he didn't set the world on fire, but given the situation he was put in and the way he reacted to various items (zone schemes, blitzes, pressure situations, Hill's fumble and Tez/Pacman giving away the game) he is not a backup scrub QB.

He's a star in waiting.

It won't be here, but it will be somewhere.  

(04-10-2017, 04:23 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yeah...pet peeve of mine is comparing stats of a current generation of players to guys stats of 15-20 years ago. The NFL has changed. The rule changes, etc.

Guys throw more TD's now and put up more yards.

Look at Troy Aikman's career stats. (165 TD/141 INT) then look at a guy like Dalton (142 TD/81 INT).

Does that mean Dalton is considerably better than Aikman? No. They played in an era where the rules weren't as pass friendly.

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I think McCarron could go somewhere and be an above average Pro QB...

Dalton definitely has a stronger arm than McCarron. I don't see McCarron being able to step into a team as devoid of talent as a rookie and lead them to the playoffs like Dalton did.

Even on his Alabama teams...McCarron was a game manager on loaded teams. To think he's a sure bet to become an elite or even really good QB isn't realistic.

Do I think he could start somewhere and put up 3500-3700 yards and throw 25 TD's...YES. It's a passing league.

I don't disagree with any of this.

If AJM goes somewhere with a stud WR like AJ Green (he had Julio at Alabama) then it makes a huge difference.  If he goes to the Browns he's not going to set the world on fire.

The "game manager" label isn't really a negative term, it shows that a QB has control of the offense and keeps mistakes to a minimum.  That's important in today's NFL.

I think Chad Pennington is the floor and HOFer is the ceiling.  It all depends where he goes.  Since the Bengals can actually control that to some degree, I'm surprised they're not giving him a chance to be a starter somewhere like Cleveland, where he would be severely lacking in offensive weapons.

(04-10-2017, 04:28 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: And he also had a REALLY scaled down playbook for his playing time.

When guys come in and don't have a strong arm and aren't as physically talented...intangibles is ALWAYS what people say they have.

Well intangibles are good...but in college you have about a 6 foot window to put the ball in to the receiver. In the Pro's...that window is about 2 feet.

The scaled down playbook limited McCarrons weakness of arm strength. That's going to get exposed if he is a starter somewhere...then it's up to the OC if they can be creative enough to hide it.

His rate passing stats and completion % don't reflect this at all.

His 4 and a half game sample looks exactly like Tom Brady's first year in the NFL on rate stats and AJM had a better comp % and QBR.

I don't think Bengals fans realize what they have on their hands here.

People have been proposing fairly insane trade ideas for McCarron. So I thought I would jump in the mix here instead of a whole new thread. They say that there is no way the browns would trade the #1 pick for our #9 pick and McCarron. But what about a different route? How about approaching SF? They are QB needy also...and the 49ers got a chance to see McCarron first hand when he beat them in SF.

How about there #2 pick for our #9 and McCarron? That accomplishes a couple of things. First, we are not trading McCarron to a division rival. Second, with the #2 pick we would assure ourselves of a difference making DE...either Garret if the browns inexplicably pass on him...or Solomon Thomas. If we need to sweeten the deal a little, then we can add one of our late round picks (I think a 5-7 round pick might do it). Somebody who can look up the draft pick values can do the math and see if this idea even makes sense.

(04-10-2017, 08:19 PM)Beaker Wrote: People have been proposing fairly insane trade ideas for McCarron. So I thought I would jump in the mix here instead of a whole new thread. They say that there is no way the browns would trade the #1 pick for our #9 pick and McCarron. But what about a different route? How about approaching SF? They are QB needy also...and the 49ers got a chance to see McCarron first hand when he beat them in SF.

How about there #2 pick for our #9 and McCarron? That accomplishes a couple of things. First, we are not trading McCarron to a division rival. Second, with the #2 pick we would assure ourselves of a difference making DE...either Garret if the browns inexplicably pass on him...or Solomon Thomas. If we need to sweeten the deal a little, then we can add one of our late round picks (I think a 5-7 round pick might do it). Somebody who can look up the draft pick values can do the math and see if this idea even makes sense.

This isn't completely directed to you but this is completely overvaluing McCarron and undervaluing the 2nd overall pick. We would need to offer that, our first next year, and probably a 3rd round pick this year

(04-10-2017, 08:19 PM)Beaker Wrote: People have been proposing fairly insane trade ideas for McCarron. So I thought I would jump in the mix here instead of a whole new thread. They say that there is no way the browns would trade the #1 pick for our #9 pick and McCarron. But what about a different route? How about approaching SF? They are QB needy also...and the 49ers got a chance to see McCarron first hand when he beat them in SF.

How about there #2 pick for our #9 and McCarron? That accomplishes a couple of things. First, we are not trading McCarron to a division rival. Second, with the #2 pick we would assure ourselves of a difference making DE...either Garret if the browns inexplicably pass on him...or Solomon Thomas. If we need to sweeten the deal a little, then we can add one of our late round picks (I think a 5-7 round pick might do it). Somebody who can look up the draft pick values can do the math and see if this idea even makes sense.

The Matt Schaub deal is a very good framework for what we can expect for a trade. So trading our 9 for their 12, and adding both their second round picks to boot. 

Edit: Looks like Whatever already covered this with post 157 (better than me at that).

(04-10-2017, 11:04 AM)Whatever Wrote: If you compare him to the Matt Schaub trade, the starting point for a trade would be AJ and #9 for #12, #33, and #52. 

(04-11-2017, 08:07 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: The Matt Schaub deal is a very good framework for what we can expect for a trade. So trading our 9 for their 12, and adding both their second round picks to boot. 

Edit: Looks like Whatever already covered this with post 157 (better than me at that).

Schaub is not the only back up QB ever traded.


According toJim O, in the 22 seasons between the 1994 and 2017 drafts, exactly 10 backup quarterbacks have been dealt:


1995: Jacksonville acquires Mark Brunell from Green Bay for third- and fifth-round picks.
1998: Buffalo acquires Rob Johnson from Jacksonville for first- and fourth-round picks.
1999: Carolina acquires Jeff Lewis from Denver for third- and fourth-round picks.
2000: New Orleans acquires Aaron Brooks and tight end Lamont Hall from Green Bay for a third round pick and linebacker K.D. Williams.
2001: Seattle acquires Matt Hasselbeck from Green Bay for a swap of first-round picks (the Packers moved up to No. 10 while the Seahawks went to No. 17) and a third-round pick.
2004: Miami acquires A.J. Feeley from Philadelphia for a second-round pick.
2007: Houston acquires Matt Schaub from Atlanta for a swap of first-round picks in 2007 (Atlanta moved from No. 10 to No. 8) and second round picks in 2007 and 2008.
2009: Kansas City acquires Matt Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel from New England for a second-round pick.
2010: Seattle acquires Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego swap of 2010 second-round picks and a 2011 third-round selection.
2011: Arizona acquires Kevin Kolb from Philadelphia for a second-round pick and Pro Bowl cornerback Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie.

(04-10-2017, 08:19 PM)Beaker Wrote: People have been proposing fairly insane trade ideas for McCarron. So I thought I would jump in the mix here instead of a whole new thread. They say that there is no way the browns would trade the #1 pick for our #9 pick and McCarron. But what about a different route? How about approaching SF? They are QB needy also...and the 49ers got a chance to see McCarron first hand when he beat them in SF.

How about there #2 pick for our #9 and McCarron? That accomplishes a couple of things. First, we are not trading McCarron to a division rival. Second, with the #2 pick we would assure ourselves of a difference making DE...either Garret if the browns inexplicably pass on him...or Solomon Thomas. If we need to sweeten the deal a little, then we can add one of our late round picks (I think a 5-7 round pick might do it). Somebody who can look up the draft pick values can do the math and see if this idea even makes sense.

I think your idea could work if we also added our 2nd round pick this year.

SF 1st round pick = 2,600 points

Bengals give our 1st = 1,350 points PLUS our 2nd = 490 PLUS AJ McCarron with say the highest 2nd round value assumed for McCarron of 580 points.

Bengals would be giving a total of 2,420 points.

* Given the way QBs are being Hoarded right now by teams, this could get us close enough in point value to get the 2nd Overall pick in round 1 for McCarron plus our 1st and 2nd round picks this year. We could kick in a 62 point 4th rounder also if needed but as long as the 49ers see McCarron as future starter material, I think a 2,420 point value would have a chance of working. QBs are like Gold right now league wide.

(04-10-2017, 08:19 PM)Beaker Wrote: People have been proposing fairly insane trade ideas for McCarron. So I thought I would jump in the mix here instead of a whole new thread. They say that there is no way the browns would trade the #1 pick for our #9 pick and McCarron. But what about a different route? How about approaching SF? They are QB needy also...and the 49ers got a chance to see McCarron first hand when he beat them in SF.

How about there #2 pick for our #9 and McCarron? That accomplishes a couple of things. First, we are not trading McCarron to a division rival. Second, with the #2 pick we would assure ourselves of a difference making DE...either Garret if the browns inexplicably pass on him...or Solomon Thomas. If we need to sweeten the deal a little, then we can add one of our late round picks (I think a 5-7 round pick might do it). Somebody who can look up the draft pick values can do the math and see if this idea even makes sense.

Or what about Bengals give #9 and AJM for Browns #12 and #33?

(04-11-2017, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Or what about Bengals give #9 and AJM for Browns #12 and #33?

Why would we have to swap 1st rounders? They are the team needing a qb. If I'm not getting more than 33 from them I'm not trading him. The hell with swapping first rounders


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(04-11-2017, 11:59 AM)BenZoo2 Wrote: Why would we have to swap 1st rounders?  They are the team needing a qb.  If I'm not getting more than 33 from them I'm not trading him.  The hell with swapping first rounders


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Because they might view #33 overall for AJM a little too pricey. And the Bengals may end up in a spot at #9 where no real standout player is there, so trading back a few spots gaining #33 overall by dropping McCarron might be worth doing. Was just a thought.

(04-11-2017, 12:02 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Because they might view #33 overall for AJM a little too pricey. And the Bengals may end up in a spot at #9 where no real standout player is there, so trading back a few spots gaining #33 overall by dropping McCarron might be worth doing. Was just a thought.

They might. We might value aj more than 33. Personally the minimum i take for him is a 2nd and a 3rd next year.


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(04-10-2017, 06:44 PM)BigSeph Wrote: I don't disagree with any of this.

If AJM goes somewhere with a stud WR like AJ Green (he had Julio at Alabama) then it makes a huge difference.  If he goes to the Browns he's not going to set the world on fire.

The "game manager" label isn't really a negative term, it shows that a QB has control of the offense and keeps mistakes to a minimum.  That's important in today's NFL.

I think Chad Pennington is the floor and HOFer is the ceiling.  It all depends where he goes.  Since the Bengals can actually control that to some degree, I'm surprised they're not giving him a chance to be a starter somewhere like Cleveland, where he would be severely lacking in offensive weapons.

IF we could get the #12 from Cleveland...I'd do that trade in a second.

And I agree...that's going to be a tough spot for him to come in and succeed.

I think though that it's the Browns who won't pull the trigger. They have Osweiler and at 12 they could take their pick of Mahomes, Trubinsky, and Watson.

They could take a nice shiny rookie like Watson with flash skills to market to their fan base vs trading for McCarron.

From a PR perspective you take the shiny rookie.

(04-11-2017, 12:25 AM)eoxyod Wrote: This isn't completely directed to you but this is completely overvaluing McCarron and undervaluing the 2nd overall pick. We would need to offer that, our first next year, and probably a 3rd round pick this year

It's a weird year. The same guy that could go #2 could go #9...

But I still doubt the 49ers would do this.

(04-09-2017, 02:58 PM)phil413 Wrote: One of their biggest needs is a pass rushing DE, a player that may not even start over MJ anyway.  No matter if it's a rotational DE, LB, slot WR, etc... they don't have to start the game.  Add in a "backup" rusher like McKinnley or Harris and it makes an impact.

You know what else makes an impact? A good FA RT.

Jk...good post.

(04-09-2017, 04:20 PM)CageTheBengal Wrote: Andy Dalton has started 77 out of 81 games in his career.

95.06% chance Dalton does not get hurt this season.

There is a very low chance we will need our backup QB this season to do anything other than know the playbook and ride the pine.

This. The chances of Dalton missing games is slim, and even if he does miss time, it's most likely going to be a small handful of games. A 2nd rounder is worth more to us than that. Btw...let's be real...McCarron isn't riding in on a white horse to save the season if Dalton goes down. We went 2-3 with him as starter after a 10-2 start with Dalton. 

Like any other team, if our starting QB goes down for the season, the season is done. That's why teams aren't shelling out big bucks or top draft picks strictly for a backup (unless it's competition or an eventual replacement for the starter).

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Btw, anyone who thinks McCarron is "a star in the making" needs to back away from the meth pipe. If ANY of the 31 other teams felt that way, they would've (a) drafted him in rounds 1-5 of the 2014 draft...when he was well known as the QB of Alabama, or (b) offered a 1st to the Bengals last year. Now the hype train is in full force again and we'll just have to wait until the draft to see if any teams truly think McCarron is a future star.

I'm sure the Bengals aren't asking for anything crazy like multiple 1st rounders, yet here McCarron is...still a Bengal. People need to get a grip.

(04-11-2017, 09:42 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You know what else makes an impact? A good FA RT.

Jk...good post.


This. The chances of Dalton missing games is slim, and even if he does miss time, it's most likely going to be a small handful of games. A 2nd rounder is worth more to us than that. Btw...let's be real...McCarron isn't riding in on a white horse to save the season if Dalton goes down. We went 2-3 with him as starter after a 10-2 start with Dalton. 

Like any other team, if our starting QB goes down for the season, the season is done. That's why teams aren't shelling out big bucks or top draft picks strictly for a backup (unless it's competition or an eventual replacement for the starter).

______________________



Btw, anyone who thinks McCarron is "a star in the making" needs to back away from the meth pipe. If ANY of the 31 other teams felt that way, they would've (a) drafted him in rounds 1-5 of the 2014 draft...when he was well known as the QB of Alabama, or (b) offered a 1st to the Bengals last year. Now the hype train is in full force again and we'll just have to wait until the draft to see if any teams truly think McCarron is a future star.

I'm sure the Bengals aren't asking for anything crazy like multiple 1st rounders, yet here McCarron is...still a Bengal. People need to get a grip.

FA RT? They don't sign fa. The didn't even keep their own FA LT. I blame ebenezer


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(04-11-2017, 09:42 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote:  Btw...let's be real...McCarron isn't riding in on a white horse to save the season if Dalton goes down. We went 2-3 with him as starter after a 10-2 start with Dalton. 

Went 2-2 with him as a starter, the two losses were to the eventual SB champion Denver Broncos in Denver in overtime, and to the Pittsburgh Steelers after the Bengals had the lead and the ball with less than 3 minutes to play.  Before Hill, Pacman and Burfict choked.

Quote:Btw, anyone who thinks McCarron is "a star in the making" needs to back away from the meth pipe. If ANY of the 31 other teams felt that way, they would've (a) drafted him in rounds 1-5 of the 2014 draft...when he was well known as the QB of Alabama, or (b) offered a 1st to the Bengals last year. Now the hype train is in full force again and we'll just have to wait until the draft to see if any teams truly think McCarron is a future star.

I'm sure the Bengals aren't asking for anything crazy like multiple 1st rounders, yet here McCarron is...still a Bengal. People need to get a grip.

This is as stupid as saying "If ANY of the other 31 other teams felt like Tom Brady was a star in the making, they would've (a) drafted him in rounds 1-5 of the 2000 draft...when he was well known as the QB of Michigan, or (b) offered a 1st to the Patriots while he was on the bench behind Bledsoe."
I'm not saying AJM = Tom Brady (despite the similarities in rate passing stats in their first NFL season of experience).  What I'm saying is that your premise is really stupid.
Gosh why didn't teams draft Aaron Rodgers when they all had the chance.  Why didn't teams all draft Drew Brees when they had the chance.  Why didn't teams draft Tony Romo at all, or at least trade for him when he was riding the pine in Dallas?
Don't quit your day job, whatever that is.