NFL Network had a segment called Splitting The Touches where it goes through backfields and predicts how many carries each of the main backs will get per game.

Hill- 3

Gio- 11

Mixon- 20

First off, I still think Hill gets cut before the season starts, but I was happy with him only getting three carries if he stays because he has become a ballerina in the backfield and doesn't hit the holes.

I think our backfield has a hell of a lot more touches than 34 a game just between Bernard, Mixon, and whoever our third back is because we won't want to wear Mixon down, but he's a great back, so I don't see him taking a lot of big hits, and I also think he'll get 5 or so catches in the pass game. I see him getting 25 touches a game, although I do think Marvin might be too cautious with him in not wanting to run him into the ground, which I don't think is a possibility at 25 a game considering he's not a pounder. He can lower his pads and pound if need-be, but he's just great when he gets a bit of space, so he doesn't need to be a pounder.

Gio with 10 might make sense except I think we'll have the ball a lot more and so he'll have a lot more opportunities. I also think see him in the slot a lot more as a receiver and we'll use him a lot more in the scat-back type, sort of in a Darren Sproles type role.

Am I right in thinking that this "expert" evaluation was off?

I don't see Hill going anywhere at all. You can't have too many healthy RBs.
Bernard still has to be fully recovered from his knee injury
Mixon is still a rookie last time I checked
Let's not anoint him the franchise rb just quite yet
Hill is still a viable red zone producer
I see the workload like this for at least the 1st 4 games

Hill 16 carries
Mixon 10
Bernard 5

I'm hoping Mixon is our primary back. But, I do realize Marvin isn't a fan of playing rookies. We know what Hill is at this point, I think Mixon has the potential to be special.

If I were to guess I'd say Hill has the most carries of any RB in out backfield. I also think Gio will have more touches than Mixon

(05-21-2017, 08:23 PM)Quantum Bengal Wrote: I'm hoping Mixon is our primary back.  But, I do realize Marvin isn't a fan of playing rookies. We kPnow what Hill is at this point, I think Mixon has the potential to be special.

hmmm... and how many touches did Hill get as a rookie.. or Gio... answer  a lot ... if Mixon deserves the carries, he will get them...

I can't wait for Mixon to punch the defensive line.

(05-21-2017, 10:22 PM)bfine32 Wrote: If I were to guess I'd say Hill has the most carries of any RB in out backfield. I also think Gio will have more touches than Mixon

That would be a huge mistake... But I agree. 

I am still not convinced that Gio doesn't start the year on Pup, especially if we need his roster spot early on for another position to carry a guy for a week or two for an injury to heal.

Hill's under contract. I expect him to see a ton of carries and play well. His next contract depends on it. I'm hoping that next contract is elsewhere though. I don't have a lot of faith or respect for the " contract year" type of player's.

We have had good production from rookie RBs recently I can see Mixon getting the most carries by far. Gio will get his and Hill will be our goal line back/ short yardage back.

(05-22-2017, 01:06 AM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Hill's under contract. I expect him to see a ton of carries and play well. His next contract depends on it. I'm hoping that next contract is elsewhere though. I don't have a lot of faith or respect from the " contract year" type of player's.

They're actually in a good spot with Hill.  He's going to get some descent pt by default (Gio recovering and Mixon being a rookie), and needs to earn that next deal.  I think you'll get your wish as they invested a lot in even taking Mixon, and Gio is still getting what 4M/yr?  These two are the future and get the carries when they're ready, we shouldn't be stressing over Hill.

I think those numbers make sense by the end of the year but I will be absolutely shocked if Mixon has anywhere close to 20 carries per game in the first 3 to 4 weeks of the season.

I think he'll probably get closer to 10 touches per game until around week 8.

Also, no way Hill gets cut. He's our starting RB. He won't be next season, but for the time being, Mixon needs to surpass him. And we all know how slow Lewis is to promote a rookie over an established veteran; even if he should.

(05-21-2017, 10:34 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: hmmm... and how many touches did Hill get as a rookie.. or Gio... answer  a lot ... if Mixon deserves the carries, he will get them...

15.6 and 14.1 touches per game, respectively.

11.0 and 12.25 touches per game, respectively, in the first 8 games of the season.

Keep in mind, that the starter in 2012 and 2013 was BJGE, but he left after the 2013 season. So Hill had only Gio as competition for the RB slot, and he still had to build up fairly gradually, with 6 games of 10 carries or less in his first 8.

I think people who expect Mixon to start on week 1 and get 20 to 25 touches from that game and going forward will be disappointed.

The Bengals will love their shiny new toy in Mixon, both as a RB and as a receiving threat. I do, however, think they will try to ease him in to the rotation and not wear him out the first half of the season.

Since Brad interpreted "touches" as carries, I would say that Hill will get quite a bit more than three and Mixon less than 20. Hill will get every opportunity to take advantage of defenses having one less guy in the box as he will be playing for a new contract. Not here, but for somewhere else. You don't cut a guy in his contract year, at least not at the beginning of the season. If at the mid-point Hill is an absolute liability, I could see them greatly reducing his snaps, but they want that compensatory pick when he signed somewhere else next year. Look at what the Bengals got in the 6th round this year. I really doubt they would not keep him in an effort to earn another later compensatory pick.

This was from Peter King's MMQB today.

"But I’m going to defer my grinchiness for the moment because of something one scout told me the day Joe Mixon was drafted. “Best back I’ve scouted in the draft since Adrian Peterson,” he said.

I am excited to see the kid in camp.

Why would we cut Hill? He's going into his contract year and will play his tail off, expect another 10 TDs from Hill this season while splitting the carries with Mixon. They will not rush Gio back and will slowly ease him back.

Hill will not be cut. There's no point. He's a very low cap hit. If Gio wasn't an uncertainty health-wise, then maybe, but it just makes too much sense to keep Hill on the team in case of injury.

Besides, knowing that the Bengals are greatly overvaluing AJ McCarron's trade value, there's no way anyone would trade for Hill either because the Bengals likely want a 2nd rounder for him (pure speculation).

Mixon will get a decent number of touches. Likely 10-15 a game. Hill will get most of his opportunities early in the season as Mixon gets acclimated and Bernard recovers properly. Based on Hill's performance in the first 4-6 weeks, we may see Mixon take over the majority of touches.

Hill will get the majority of carries unless and until Mixon can prove to be the better RB. That's the pattern Marvin Lewis depends upon.

(05-22-2017, 10:28 AM)EatonFan Wrote: Hill will get the majority of carries unless and until Mixon can prove to be the better RB.  That's the pattern Marvin Lewis depends upon.

It's not about touches so much as it's about snaps. Reason being you can be in on a passing play that had no intentions of going to you and it can be checked to a run and the same goes for the inverse. You want to be able to get on the field, and for a rookie that comes down to being able to pass protect. From everything I have seen Mixon can pass protect which means he should be able to see the field often early on.

(05-22-2017, 10:50 AM)Au165 Wrote: It's not about touches so much as it's about snaps. Reason being you can be in on a passing play that had no intentions of going to you and it can be checked to a run and the same goes for the inverse. You want to be able to get on the field, and for a rookie that comes down to being able to pass protect. From everything I have seen Mixon can pass protect which means he should be able to see the field often early on.

Yessir. Mixon was rated something like 98% in pass pro efficiency, so he's going to be better than Hill at this which means he will most likely see more snaps than Hill. But Hill will probably get more "touches" than Mixon, especially early on.