I was interested in baseball salaries and who Reds can afford in off season. One web site shows payroll for every team and contracts. On Reds it shows Votto gets around 25 % of payroll and Homer Bailey get around 25 % of payroll. IF THIS IS TRUE. I highlight that because I'm not taking the web site as correct. I'm saying IF it is true, then I see why Reds have been around last place the last 4 years. The Reds are a small market franchise that needs to distribute payroll smarter than this. There is an old baseball quote. " If we lost with you, we can lose without you ". The Reds need to consider that because about 50 % of their payroll is not used correctly.

Scooter Gennett is proof you can pick up good players under 10 mil. Votto gets round 25 mil and so does Bailey. At least one of them has to go, if not both. I really believe Reds can get a good first baseman under 10 mil. I know they can get a better pitcher than Bailey under 10 mil. If Reds are paying half their payroll to just 2 players, that is a huge mistake. If Reds dumped those 2 salaries they could get 10 top quality 5 mil players and then they would have an all around competitive team. Even if they just dumped Bailey they could add 5 quality players. This Cincinnati small market franchise will stay in last place as long as it hangs on to both of these players. At least one of them has to go ASAP to escape last place.

The Reds are not the Yankees deep pockets. The Reds need to play Money Ball and try not to go 10 mil or more on a player. The Reds could load up on more Scooter Gennett types. They could have better all around pitching. You need 25 players, not just 2 to make a team. I saw Reds dump payroll of Griifey Jr and Dunn and go from last to first. With Reds back around last 4 straight years, it's time to do it again in regards to Bailey and maybe even Votto. I'm not even sure Votto best player on Reds this year. That may be Gennett and even Suarez ahead of him. Votto homers have dropped off. He still has good on base %, but there are 5 mil players that can give you a good on base %. If Bailey makes all most as much as Votto, that has to end ASAP because Bailey not worth it & Reds can't afford it. Trade him for a bag of peanuts and just be glad you dumped payroll. The only way I could see Reds spending half payroll on 2 players would be if they were as World Series dominate as Koufax and Drysdale. Votto and Bailey are not even close.

So, you may not agree with me on Votto. Many didn't agree with me saying trade Griffey Jr while in last place. You do have to agree Reds can't keep Votto and Bailey into 2019 if they together eat up about half of Reds payroll. Can we agree one of them has to go ? I'm not against the Reds here. I'm actually for the Reds getting back to winning. I would not want the Bengals spending half the payroll on 2 players and being in last place. So I am a fan who wants Bengals and Reds to win.

If teams could win with nothing but $5 million players than no teams would be paying guys $20 million plus.

Plus you can't get rid of those contracts by cutting a player. So what team is going to take Homers contract off our hands?

Votto has struggled with injury this year, but he was #2 in MVP voting last year. Over the last 8 seasons he has finished in the top 3 in MVP voting 3 times and in the top 7 six times. Claiming he is no more productive than some $5 million run of the mill player is crazy.

(08-24-2018, 03:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If teams could win with nothing but $5 million players than no teams would be paying guys $20 million plus.

Plus you can't get rid of those contracts by cutting a player.  So what team is going to take Homers contract off our hands?

Well, here is where you say to deep pocket Yankees or Red Sox type teams, If you want Votto, you have to take Bailey.  A team like deep pocket New York, Boston, LA just might go for it to get Votto because they can afford it. You free up half the payroll and you can't finish any worse than last place where Reds have been stuck in last few years.  The Reds are not a big market team. They are a small market team. They really have to avoid the 20 mil contracts as a small market team. Cincy is not New York City.  Still, other small market teams have played good ball without huge contracts. Reds were playing good ball a few years there without huge contracts. Jack McKeon for example didn't want the huge contracts. Cincinnati can never spend like New York, Boston, LA. Those days are long gone since 1994 strike. This does not mean Reds can't be a good team.  As long as 2 players eat half their payroll, Reds will remain in last place. 

Now football is different. NFL has it set up to where Cincinnati gets TV revenue sharing. NFL is set up for Cincinnati to compete. Baseball isn't. Reds do have to do more with less. Here is where small markets win with pitching and defense, good bullpen, clutch hitting. Good solid fundamentals. Good players coming up in minors to Bigs at starting pay. Picking up good players like Scooter when you can on the cheap compared to big money guys. You can win a lot of games with pitching and defense and clutch hitting. As it is, the last few years the Reds are as bad as it gets stuck in last place. If Reds go into 2019 with Votto and Bailey eating half the payroll, Reds will clinch last place in April again.

Any thread that tries to say Votto is the reason why they're not winning automatically gets a 1 star from me.

Votto more than earns his money. As Fred said earlier, perennial MVP candidate, and probably would have 2 more MVPs to his name if the rest of the team hadn't been so terrible around him.

Barry Bonds only ever won a postseason series ONE year in his 22 year career, and 0 World Series.
Mike Trout has only been to the playoffs once in 8 years and has never won a GAME, let alone a series.



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While the Bailey contract was horrible, the Reds real problem is terrible drafting under Jocketty coming back to bite them, a lack of success in the international market, and a failure to develop talent in the minors.

To a lesser degree, another problem is the Reds haven't kept pace with spending from when they were good:
-In 2012 they were 19th in payroll and 13.79% below the league average in spending.
-In 2018 they are 25th in payroll and 28.45% below the league average in spending.

The gap between them and league average spending the last couple years has more than doubled.





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Bad thread is bad.

Bailey is a dud. Votto is a stud. Package them together for a trade.

They say a rule of thumb is a around 5.9 million cap hit per WAR. Votto has consistently been over 5 WAR. He easily earns his money. You want to throw shade at Homer, you'll get no disagreement from me....or really anyone for that matter.

(08-24-2018, 05:14 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Any thread that tries to say Votto is the reason why they're not winning automatically gets a 1 star from me.

Votto more than earns his money. As Fred said earlier, perennial MVP candidate, and probably would have 2 more MVPs to his name if the rest of the team hadn't been so terrible around him.

Barry Bonds only ever won a postseason series ONE year in his 22 year career, and 0 World Series.
Mike Trout has only been to the playoffs once in 8 years and has never won a GAME, let alone a series.



- - - - - - - - -

While the Bailey contract was horrible, the Reds real problem is terrible drafting under Jocketty coming back to bite them, a lack of success in the international market, and a failure to develop talent in the minors.

To a lesser degree, another problem is the Reds haven't kept pace with spending from when they were good:
-In 2012 they were 19th in payroll and 13.79% below the league average in spending.
-In 2018 they are 25th in payroll and 28.45% below the league average in spending.

The gap between them and league average spending the last couple years has more than doubled.





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Bad thread is bad.

The problem with the Reds IMO is they fall in love with players and lack making timely decisions. Like I think the difference between the Reds and Bengals FO is paper thin. So, so familiar in the way they "love the familiar and hate change" approach.

The Reds can & probably will adjust their payroll next year. They've spent a ton of money on International players and amateur players they persuade to play professionally. I believe DW has stated this earlier in the year.

Signing Homer over Cueto will go down as one of the most monumental mistakes in recent Reds history.

I know that Cueto signed for 25 million more than Bailey (over 6 years) with the Giants and hindsight is 20/20, but this was barely even hindsight. At the time of signing, it was widely considered a mistake to give Bailey, who was a replacement level player from 2007 to 2011 before being a slightly above average (2 to 3 WAR) player with an average ERA (never lower than 3.49 to that point...and still not below that mark) for the following 2 years.

So, suffice it to say, I wish we had never signed Bailey...He has held this team back to a pretty extreme degree so far since he signed that ludicrous contract.

Votto, on the other hand, is definitely worth the money we spent on him. He's a surefire hall of famer and I'm glad to have him on the team.

(08-27-2018, 02:07 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Signing Homer over Cueto will go down as one of the most monumental mistakes in recent Reds history.

I know that Cueto signed for 25 million more than Bailey (over 6 years) with the Giants and hindsight is 20/20, but this was barely even hindsight. At the time of signing, it was widely considered a mistake to give Bailey, who was a replacement level player from 2007 to 2011 before being a slightly above average (2 to 3 WAR) player with an average ERA (never lower than 3.49 to that point...and still not below that mark) for the following 2 years.

So, suffice it to say, I wish we had never signed Bailey...He has held this team back to a pretty extreme degree so far since he signed that ludicrous contract.

Votto, on the other hand, is definitely worth the money we spent on him. He's a surefire hall of famer and I'm glad to have him on the team.

Pitchers in general are the holy grail, but also the riskiest. Cueto was designated to have TJ surgery earlier this month. 

(08-27-2018, 11:29 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: They say a rule of thumb is a around 5.9 million cap hit per WAR. Votto has consistently been over 5 WAR. He easily earns his money. You want to throw shade at Homer, you'll get no disagreement from me....or really anyone for that matter.

I disagree with that thought process and here’s why.. let’s say votto puts up a 5 War at 25 mil, now let’s say that we have another player that could put up a 2 War at 3 million to replace him. Can you easily make up that other 3 War at other positions for that extra 22 mil.? Also, does War honestly tell the whole picture? Votto has been a great Red but that anchor contract is gonna keep getting heavier. I will say that Votto is still an OBP machine, he’s just not a slugger anymore. Pitchers will figure out that they’re better off throwing strikes to him as the age takes his power and average away.

(10-04-2018, 02:47 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I disagree with that thought process and here’s why.. let’s say votto puts up a 5 War at 25 mil, now let’s say that we have another player that could put up a 2 War at 3 million to replace him. Can you easily make up that other 3 War at other positions for that extra 22 mil.? Also, does War honestly tell the whole picture? Votto has been a great Red but that anchor contract is gonna keep getting heavier. I will say that Votto is still an OBP machine, he’s just not a slugger anymore. Pitchers will figure out that they’re better off throwing strikes to him as the age takes his power and average away.

Votto is a few spots behind the famous Mike Trout in the WAR rankings. Do you think Mike Trout is good? 

WAR is a way to crunch all the available numbers out there and rank them accordingly. 

Quote:Statistic Description: Wins Above Replacement for position players A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. Scale: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Leve

So you want to take an all-star out of the lineup and put in a bunch of "starter" level players? I don't get why that is. I want to have good players on my team. 

And LOL at throwing strikes to Joey V. The dude may not be able to take it the distance, but you're dumb as sh!it if you pitch right at him. There's a reason why pitchers avoid pitching right at him. He'll turn a walk in into a double quickly. 

(10-04-2018, 03:20 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Votto is a few spots behind the famous Mike Trout in the WAR rankings. Do you think Mike Trout is good? 

WAR is a way to crunch all the available numbers out there and rank them accordingly. 


So you want to take an all-star out of the lineup and put in a bunch of "starter" level players? I don't get why that is. I want to have good players on my team. 

And LOL at throwing strikes to Joey V. The dude may not be able to take it the distance, but you're dumb as sh!it if you pitch right at him. There's a reason why pitchers avoid pitching right at him. He'll turn a walk in into a double quickly. 

I do think that Mike Trout is good. My main issue is that Trout is 27 and Votto is 35. If Votto was 27, it’s a no brained. Votto is going to slow down, it’s already started. The question is at what rate. It’s a bigger gamble for teams if it’s a quarter of the payroll. There is a likely chance that Votto will become a “starter” level player. 25 mil is a lot to spend on one of those. Hopefully he’s only like that for a year vs. three. If not, the fans will turn on him and that would be a shame.

(10-04-2018, 09:16 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I do think that Mike Trout is good. My main issue is that Trout is 27 and Votto is 35. If Votto was 27, it’s a no brained. Votto is going to slow down, it’s already started. The question is at what rate. It’s a bigger gamble for teams if it’s a quarter of the payroll. There is a likely chance that Votto will become a “starter” level player. 25 mil is a lot to spend on one of those. Hopefully he’s only like that for a year vs. three. If not, the fans will turn on him and that would be a shame.

In order to keep elite talent during their prime, you have to be willing to pay for the back half. You better believe that Trout will get his huge pay day where he gets paid a boat load while not being worth it towards the end. He was actually starter level WAR this year at 2.5, so that process has begun. But it's not his fault they wasted his high 5's and sometimes low 7 WAR days during the past 10 years.

(10-04-2018, 03:20 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Votto is a few spots behind the famous Mike Trout in the WAR rankings. Do you think Mike Trout is good? 

WAR is a way to crunch all the available numbers out there and rank them accordingly. 


So you want to take an all-star out of the lineup and put in a bunch of "starter" level players? I don't get why that is. I want to have good players on my team. 

And LOL at throwing strikes to Joey V. The dude may not be able to take it the distance, but you're dumb as sh!it if you pitch right at him. There's a reason why pitchers avoid pitching right at him. He'll turn a walk in into a double quickly. 

Btw, Votto’s War was 3.5 this year. When he was pitched to, 42 of his over 500 AB’s were extra base hits. If he doesn’t improve on that, more pitchers will start throwing him more strikes.

(10-04-2018, 09:34 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: In order to keep elite talent during their prime, you have to be willing to pay for the back half. You better believe that Trout will get his huge pay day where he gets paid a boat load while not being worth it towards the end. He was actually starter level WAR this year at 2.5, so that process has begun. But it's not his fault they wasted his high 5's and sometimes low 7 WAR days during the past 10 years.

I get that, I’m just weighing the wisdom of those contracts for teams that won’t spend. (Small market)... I do like Votto and really, really hope that he ages well because I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

(10-04-2018, 09:36 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Btw, Votto’s War was 3.5 this year. When he was pitched to, 42 of his over 500 AB’s were extra base hits. If he doesn’t improve on that, more pitchers will start throwing him more strikes.

You’re right, I was looking at oWar. They just realize how to pitch to him now. He’ll adjust and be better next year. Joey is one of the best reds hitters of all time, I how no doubt he’ll fix it. His defense isnt that great and base running is pretty bad. He needs a nice rebound year next year

(10-04-2018, 09:41 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I get that, I’m just weighing the wisdom of those contracts for teams that won’t spend. (Small market)... I do like Votto and really, really hope that he ages well because I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

Well, yeah, but it has to be much more calculated if you do it. I think they bank on that 2012 team to take it all. That team would of made a run had they not choked. Joey signed that extension in the same window. I don’t really blame either really just bad luck

(10-04-2018, 10:13 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: You’re right, I was looking at oWar. They just realize how to pitch to him now. He’ll adjust and be better next year. Joey is one of the best reds hitters of all time, I how no doubt he’ll fix it. His defense isnt that great and base running is pretty bad. He needs a nice rebound year next year

He’s obviously a great hitter. I’m just past ready for a winner, that doesn’t look too likely anytime soon.