(02-12-2020, 04:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: QB is ultra important, but weren't most of those guys not the first QBs off the board, too?  Burrow all the way, but this list also shows a hint of "organization over #1 pick" too.

On the optimistic side though we may be sitting at #1 for the first time in a while where the top graded QB is the ultimate no brainer.

You are correct.
Many were 1st rounders, but not the 1st QB themselves.
The big takeaways are:
1) Scouting quality
2) Ability to properly develop/groom

Patrick Mahomes is a great example. He was not the best QB entering the draft when it came to readiness. However, he had an elite skill set and a HC and coaching staff that have been able to properly develop him. There's a decent chance Mahomes wouldn't be at the same level if he were with a handful of other teams.

(02-13-2020, 11:28 AM)Nately120 Wrote: If Burrow goes to a franchise that has its act together I'm almost certain he'd make us look like even bigger morons than we already do.  Doesn't mean he'd drag MB to the SB, but you know what I mean.



Well, when I look at this list (and in all fairness, Aikman won 3 SBs and 2 were before this supplied list started) I see that getting the 1st QB off the board matters less than the competency of the organization as a whole.  Basically, a good NFL franchise is more likely to win the SB with the 2nd or later QB in a given draft class than a lousy organization is to win with the cream of the crop.

Only twice in the past 25 years has a team won a SB by drafting the first QB taken off the board.  This should, one would think, send a message to Mike Brown that his third time getting the top QB in the draft to build around should be handled in a different way, but alas I doubt he will get the message or even care if he does.  

So there you have it.  Hey Mike Brown, you have the chance to get the best QB in a long time and history has shown that you're much more likely to win if you run the franchise in the right way so why not hedge your bets and combine Burrow with a winning organizational approach?  Why not, indeed.

I just don't want to see Burrow lumped in with all the other 1st QBs taken who apparently didn't know how to win once they were magically taken by the lousy teams drafting 1st overall.  Funny how the 2nd and later QBs off the board don't become losers once they get drafted, you think someone would look for the real underlying issue here, eh?

Indeed you would

And this goes along with my line of thinking - JB is really the only chance we have with the team being ran by an incompetent GM, Mike Brown ?

The people hollering build the team, umm what makes them think MB has any ability, or care, to actually have a plan and "build the team" ?

Only shot we've got is for Burrow or whoever with off the charts ability and willpower to as you say drag Mike to the super bowl and I'll add kicking and screaming.

Burrow is a no-brainer.

But so is getting a potential once in a generation QB the best possible coaching,  building a practice facility, signing two high quality free agents to improve one of the worst o line and LB group in the league, not giving a backup RB a top 10 RB contract, adding scouts to an organization which only builds through the draft, not wasting a second round pick on a third string tight end, etc.

Whatever they do, I will be stunned if this organization does not screw things up, one way or the other.

(02-12-2020, 04:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: QB is ultra important, but weren't most of those guys not the first QBs off the board, too?  Burrow all the way, but this list also shows a hint of "organization over #1 pick" too.

On the optimistic side though we may be sitting at #1 for the first time in a while where the top graded QB is the ultimate no brainer.

I am pretty sure there have been a lot more undrafted free agents late round picks that have gone on to be awful, adequate, or mediocre than have turned into Kurt Warner or Tom Brady. I would bet a big share of my net worth that top pick QBs turn into pro-bowlers more often than guys drafted outside of the first round. Sure you can get a Russell Wilson in the late rounds, if you are insanely lucky. 5 of 13 QBs in 2018 were first rounders, 3 of 11 in 2019. Many more QBs are taken outside the first round, and thats not even getting into whether they were top 3, 5, or 10 picks. If you strike gold, you can find yourself a starter, but most more guys end up being Ryan Finley than Tom Brady. I will take my chances on the guy who just made FBS football look easy.

(02-13-2020, 01:33 PM)pdub2005 Wrote: I am pretty sure there have been a lot more undrafted free agents late round picks that have gone on to be awful, adequate, or mediocre than have turned into Kurt Warner or Tom Brady. I would bet a big share of my net worth that top pick QBs turn into pro-bowlers more often than guys drafted outside of the first round. Sure you can get a Russell Wilson in the late rounds, if you are insanely lucky. 5 of 13 QBs in 2018 were first rounders, 3 of 11 in 2019. Many more QBs are taken outside the first round, and thats not even getting into whether they were top 3, 5, or 10 picks. If you strike gold, you can find yourself a starter, but most more guys end up being Ryan Finley than Tom Brady. I will take my chances on the guy who just made FBS football look easy.

I put Tom Brady and Kurt Warner in my "can't see this coming outliers" category.  I'm just saying look at Mahommes for example...3rd QB off the board and he goes to a team dedicated to winning and putting him in a position to succeed.  He's a top 10 pick, not the 199th pick.

Burrow to us is going to be good.  Burrow to a team that trades up to get him like the Chiefs did for Mahommes would likely be a lot better.

(02-13-2020, 01:16 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: The people hollering build the team, umm what makes them think MB has any ability, or care, to actually have a plan and "build the team" ?

Just 5 years ago he built a team that was a Championship contender.

Before Dalton got injured we were 10-2 with the #4 scoring offense , #1 scoring defense, and three wins against playoff teams.

(02-12-2020, 03:57 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: To all of those talking trade down, build the team, take this guy, do this and that, instead of taking Joe Burrow.

Here's a list of Super Bowl winning Qb's since 1994. Only reason I stopped there was the point has been made over and over !

1994 Steve Young
1995 Troy Aikman
1996 Brett Favre
1997 John Elway
1998 John Elway
1999 Kurt Warner
2000 Trent Dilfer*
2001 Tom Brady
2002 Brad Johnson*
2003 Tom Brady
2004 Tom Brady
2005 Ben Rothlisberger
2006 Peyton Manning
2007 Eli Manning
2008 Ben Rothlisberger
2009 Drew Brees
2010 Aaron Rodgers
2011 Eli Manning
2012 Joe Flacco*
2013 Russell Wilson
2014 Tom Brady
2015 Peyton Manning
2016 Tom Brady
2017 Nick Foles*
2018 Tom Brady
2019 Patrick Mahomes

Of the last 26 Super Bowls 22 of them have been won by elite and/or very top tier QB's for the time. Sure there's the occasional outliers (Dilfer, Johnson, Foles, Flacco) and others going back further, I'm sure. You can argue Eli isn't this, that team had a great defense (2013 Seahawks) and other points.

But the fact remains it's very much a QB driven league as far as who the SB winners are and even who's really in the hunt. The same names show up time and again late in the playoffs, Brady, Manning's, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Rothlisberger, lately Mahomes.

You simply can't pass on this opportunity to have one who may well be the next to enter this class !

Good post, but remember there have been quite a few QBs that are considered 'great' or 'elite' who have never won a Super Bowl and that's no knock on them (players like Marino and Rivers, for example). So even though having that great QB is a good thing, it still takes a team to win a Super Bowl.

(02-12-2020, 10:21 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Just because teams stupidly passed on all of those HoF/Elite guys doesn’t mean we should make the same mistake.

You do not even understand the conversation we are having.

When you argue that the only way to win is draft the highest rated QB that makes you the guy who passed on both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in order to take Mitch Trubisky.

(02-13-2020, 11:28 AM)Nately120 Wrote: If Burrow goes to a franchise that has its act together I'm almost certain he'd make us look like even bigger morons than we already do.  Doesn't mean he'd drag MB to the SB, but you know what I mean.



Well, when I look at this list (and in all fairness, Aikman won 3 SBs and 2 were before this supplied list started) I see that getting the 1st QB off the board matters less than the competency of the organization as a whole.  Basically, a good NFL franchise is more likely to win the SB with the 2nd or later QB in a given draft class than a lousy organization is to win with the cream of the crop.

Only twice in the past 25 years has a team won a SB by drafting the first QB taken off the board.  This should, one would think, send a message to Mike Brown that his third time getting the top QB in the draft to build around should be handled in a different way, but alas I doubt he will get the message or even care if he does.  

So there you have it.  Hey Mike Brown, you have the chance to get the best QB in a long time and history has shown that you're much more likely to win if you run the franchise in the right way so why not hedge your bets and combine Burrow with a winning organizational approach?  Why not, indeed.

I just don't want to see Burrow lumped in with all the other 1st QBs taken who apparently didn't know how to win once they were magically taken by the lousy teams drafting 1st overall.  Funny how the 2nd and later QBs off the board don't become losers once they get drafted, you think someone would look for the real underlying issue here, eh?

This got me looking into other teams roster and you have a great point.

16 of the current 18 playoff contenders either have:

1. A non-1st round QB

2. A 1st round QB they drafted by trading up from the late 1st round to grab when they were already a playoff team
3. A former 1st round QB they acquired through trade or free agency

90% of the current contenders fit into one of those 3 categories. Only two teams (CHI, BUF) drafted a QB in the early 1st when they weren’t playoff teams the prior year trading up.
Meanwhile 9 of the current 14 non-contenders have 1st rounders, and way too many of those fit the mold of "plugging THE FUTURE in at QB on an otherwise terrible roster" and are not having success with it. The Giants, Jets, Cardinals, Bucs, Browns, and Redskins have all done this lately and it isn’t working.
So if you could choose how to model your team, would choose to do it like 90% of the current playoff contenders did it, or how the Giants/Jets/Cards/Skins are doing?

(02-13-2020, 03:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You do not even understand the conversation we are having.

When you argue that the only way to win is draft the highest rated QB that makes you the guy who passed on both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in order to take Mitch Trubisky.

Even if the team on top picks the right guy it's no guarantee, though.  Carson Palmer was the right choice in 2003 and deserved to be the first QB off the board by a mile...didn't stop us from having to watch Rex Grossman stumble his way to 2 playoff wins and a SB appearance.

(02-13-2020, 03:04 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Good post, but remember there have been quite a few QBs that are considered 'great' or 'elite' who have never won a Super Bowl and that's no knock on them (players like Marino and Rivers, for example). So even though having that great QB is a good thing, it still takes a team to win a Super Bowl.

There's no doubt about it ! I just feel our chances of having a great team and so-so QB and winning are much lower than having a great QB and decent team.

Needs to be noted that a lot of the people are only suggesting the possibility of taking someone other than Burrow if it means getting extra draft picks.

I don't know of anyone who is arguing that we should keep the #1 pick but use it on someone other than Burrow.  So it isn't really "Burrow or some other QB".  It is actually "Burrow or a bunch of extra draft picks".

(02-12-2020, 04:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: QB is ultra important, but weren't most of those guys not the first QBs off the board, too?  Burrow all the way, but this list also shows a hint of "organization over #1 pick" too.

On the optimistic side though we may be sitting at #1 for the first time in a while where the top graded QB is the ultimate no brainer.

Teams that tend to draft in the low teens and pick a QB are more incline to reach and win the SB than those that pick 1st. 

(02-13-2020, 03:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You do not even understand the conversation we are having.

When you argue that the only way to win is draft the highest rated QB that makes you the guy who passed on both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in order to take Mitch Trubisky.

I understand just fine. There’s no right or wrong way. You take the guy you think is the best. Pretty easy choice this year.

You guys do realize that when Joe Burrow gets signed by the bengals Mike Brown will invest heavily in a banana peel venture and leave them all around Joe's house.... right?  Just as a decoration kinda thing..

(02-12-2020, 03:57 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: To all of those talking trade down, build the team, take this guy, do this and that, instead of taking Joe Burrow.

Here's a list of Super Bowl winning Qb's since 1994. Only reason I stopped there was the point has been made over and over !

1994 Steve Young
1995 Troy Aikman
1996 Brett Favre
1997 John Elway
1998 John Elway
1999 Kurt Warner
2000 Trent Dilfer*
2001 Tom Brady
2002 Brad Johnson*
2003 Tom Brady
2004 Tom Brady
2005 Ben Rothlisberger
2006 Peyton Manning
2007 Eli Manning
2008 Ben Rothlisberger
2009 Drew Brees
2010 Aaron Rodgers
2011 Eli Manning
2012 Joe Flacco*
2013 Russell Wilson
2014 Tom Brady
2015 Peyton Manning
2016 Tom Brady
2017 Nick Foles*
2018 Tom Brady
2019 Patrick Mahomes

Of the last 26 Super Bowls 22 of them have been won by elite and/or very top tier QB's for the time. Sure there's the occasional outliers (Dilfer, Johnson, Foles, Flacco) and others going back further, I'm sure. You can argue Eli isn't this, that team had a great defense (2013 Seahawks) and other points.

But the fact remains it's very much a QB driven league as far as who the SB winners are and even who's really in the hunt. The same names show up time and again late in the playoffs, Brady, Manning's, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Rothlisberger, lately Mahomes.

You simply can't pass on this opportunity to have one who may well be the next to enter this class !

I'm all in on Joe Burrow now myself, but that list only contains 4 number one overall picks. One of them is Eli, and he's not really held in the highest regard. If his last name was Thompson, people would think even less of him. It's hard to go to a shit team and overcome.

Again... Draft Burrow though.

(02-12-2020, 10:21 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Some of you are really overthinking this. Who cares if most of the QB’s were taken 1st, 3rd, or whenever? You don’t pass on a guy like Burrow because not many #1’s have won SB’s. Just because teams stupidly passed on all of those HoF/Elite guys doesn’t mean we should make the same mistake.

The argument isn't so much that at the teams passed on those guys. It's more along the lines of Russell Wilson probably wouldn't have been as successful coming here or to Cleveland, or Detroit as he was in Seattle.

I know that Mahomes doesn't throw 50 TDs on the 2018 Bengals.

(02-13-2020, 11:27 PM)jason Wrote: The argument isn't so much that at the teams passed on those guys. It's more along the lines of Russell Wilson probably wouldn't have been as successful coming here or to Cleveland, or Detroit as he was in Seattle.

I know that Mahomes doesn't throw 50 TDs on the 2018 Bengals.

I also don’t think Mahomes goes one and done with similar teams as the ones we had from 2011-2015...

(02-14-2020, 01:18 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I also don’t think Mahomes goes one and done with similar teams as the ones we had from 2011-2015...

Couldn't agree more !

We'd have won one for sure, probably two or three ?

(02-14-2020, 01:18 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I also don’t think Mahomes goes one and done with similar teams as the ones we had from 2011-2015...

(02-14-2020, 10:21 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Couldn't agree more !

We'd have won one for sure, probably two or three ?

You guys also said that Finley would be better at avoiding the pass rush than Dalton.

Playing make believe can be fun, but it really doesn't prove anything.