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+--- Thread: NFL passing efficiency - (/thread-26024.html)
NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-08-2020
I know the last 2.5 games skew our numbers some, but our amount of pass attempts and yardage kind of masked some issues we had on offense. Our 3rd down offense was bad. Also, our red zone offense was bad. We couldn't complete deep throws and had to reply on 10-12 play drives to score...which are tough to do consistently in the NFL. And some of that is no running game. Which hurts the passing offense.
Taylor hasn't really worked wonders with the passing game. We're basically similar to where we were last year with Dalton. (Of course, Burrow is a fantastic prospect that I'd never trade. Burrow just can't do it all himself. He needs better coaching/scheme.)
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8">Here's a fun graph -- NFL passing efficiency as measured by ANY/A.
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 8, 2020
Left to Right --> how good each passing offense is.
Down to Up --> how much each passing offense has declined/improved from 2019 to 2020.
PHI, BAL, DAL biggest decliners, 6 teams with huge improvements. pic.twitter.com/TQkzjJLFc1
Meanwhile, the Jets/Bengals/Bears/Giants have had bad QB play two years in a row.
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 8, 2020
But my lord the Broncos and especially Eagles charts are ugly.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-08-2020
So we added Joe Burrow and just got marginally better in passing efficiency.
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Things you probably wouldn't have guessed:
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 8, 2020
In 2019, the Bengals ranked 28th in passing efficiency (ANY/A).
In 2020, with Joe Burrow as the QB for 85% of their passing plays, the Bengals rank.... 27th in passing efficiency.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-08-2020
So we added Joe Burrow and just got marginally better in passing efficiency.
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Things you probably wouldn't have guessed:
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) December 8, 2020
In 2019, the Bengals ranked 28th in passing efficiency (ANY/A).
In 2020, with Joe Burrow as the QB for 85% of their passing plays, the Bengals rank.... 27th in passing efficiency.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - ochocincos - 12-08-2020
Burrow has been highly accurate - 65.3%. That's very, very good for a rookie QB, regardless if he's a first-round pick or not.
What will improve the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) are:
- Get an OL who can block long enough such that receivers have time to get open
- Get receivers who can separate better/faster
The OL is a higher priority because no receiver is going to get great separation if they only have 2 seconds or less before the ball is thrown.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 05:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow has been highly accurate - 65.3%. That's very, very good for a rookie QB, regardless if he's a first-round pick or not.
What will improve the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) are:
- Get an OL who can block long enough such that receivers have time to get open
- Get receivers who can separate better/faster
The OL is a higher priority because no receiver is going to get great separation if they only have 2 seconds or less before the ball is thrown.
No doubt. And Burrow had a really good year as a rookie.
But, all things considered, our passing game didn't progress much from 2019 to 2020 according to these stats. We just passed a lot more.
Burrow was particularly great on intermediate throws. Also he was good at not throwing interceptions.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - TheLeonardLeap - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 05:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow has been highly accurate - 65.3%. That's very, very good for a rookie QB, regardless if he's a first-round pick or not.
What will improve the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) are:
- Get an OL who can block long enough such that receivers have time to get open
- Get receivers who can separate better/faster
The OL is a higher priority because no receiver is going to get great separation if they only have 2 seconds or less before the ball is thrown.
That is actually 0.1% below average.
The average QB completion % for 2020 is 65.4% (it was 63.5% in 2019 and 64.9% in 2018).
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - ochocincos - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 05:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That is actually 0.1% below average.
The average QB completion % for 2020 is 65.4% (it was 63.5% in 2019 and 64.9% in 2018).
Burrow is 20th in the league in completion percentage, and he's the most accurate rookie QB.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - TheLeonardLeap - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 05:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow is 20th in the league in completion percentage, and he's the most accurate rookie QB.
20th isn't particularly good. You said "highly accurate". Randy Bullock is the 20th most accurate FG kicker in 2020. Nobody is calling Randy Bullock "highly accurate" this year.
It's not bad for a rookie, but keep in mind that Burrow was also operating a very short passing game.
6.7 YPA vs 7.2 league average
10.2 YPC vs 11.1 league average
He was a rookie and I think Burrow will get better and be fine so long as he can stay healthy (and they get rid of Taylor) so I am not particularly worried and still think he'll turn out to be a great QB, but Burrow by most measures was a below-average QB statistically in 2020.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - ochocincos - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 06:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 20th isn't particularly good. You said "highly accurate". Randy Bullock is the 20th most accurate FG kicker in 2020. Nobody is calling Randy Bullock "highly accurate" this year.
It's not bad for a rookie, but keep in mind that Burrow was also operating a very short passing game.
6.7 YPA vs 7.2 league average
10.2 YPC vs 11.1 league average
He was a rookie and I think Burrow will get better and be fine so long as he can stay healthy (and they get rid of Taylor) so I am not particularly worried and still think he'll turn out to be a great QB, but Burrow by most measures was a below-average QB statistically in 2020.
I consider 65% highly accurate even if he isn't in the Top 10 or 15.
For comparison, Dalton only hit 65% completion percentage once while a Bengal.
EDIT - You're criticizing 65% like it's a bad thing. Just because a majority of QBs have that mark doesn't mean Burrow isn't highly accurate. It just means others are as well. It's like getting an A on the test and saying you got a good grade. Would you criticize the grade if a majority of the class got an A?
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - TheLeonardLeap - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 06:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I consider 65% highly accurate even if he isn't in the Top 10 or 15.
For comparison, Dalton only hit 65% completion percentage once while a Bengal.
Yes, and then the NFL continued to change. 65% isn't highly accurate anymore. Right now it's below average.
During the 90s, the average completion % never went above 58.2%. Times change. Rules change.
Not sure why you brought up Dalton. He was below average as a QB his rookie year too, and comparing two QBs stats from different generations is a pointless endeavor.
EDIT: Except in class you're not competing against each other, so an A is an A is an A. Nobody wins or loses. This is if you're in class and you don't have an A-F grades, you just have rankings. So if there's 32 people in your class, and you're 20th, it means you're below average. There's no awards for being below average. Below average doesn't get you on the Honor Roll. (This metaphor is getting a bit stretched.)
I'm not worried about Burrow's future as I think he'll keep improving. I just accepting the statistical reality that he was below average, while continuing to hope and believe that he'll grow into a great QB. Both are possible.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - ochocincos - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 06:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yes, and then the NFL continued to change. 65% isn't highly accurate anymore. Right now it's below average.
During the 90s, the average completion % never went above 58.2%. Times change. Rules change.
Not sure why you brought up Dalton. He was below average as a QB his rookie year too, and comparing two QBs stats from different generations is a pointless endeavor.
EDIT: Except in class you're not competing against each other, so an A is an A is an A. Nobody wins or loses. This is if you're in class and you don't have an A-F grades, you just have rankings. So if there's 32 people in your class, and you're 20th, it means you're below average. There's no awards for being below average. Below average doesn't get you on the Honor Roll. (This metaphor is getting a bit stretched.)
I'm not worried about Burrow's future as I think he'll keep improving. I just accepting the statistical reality that he was below average, while continuing to hope and believe that he'll grow into a great QB. Both are possible.
I didn't compare Dalton's rookie year to Burrow's rookie year. I said Dalton's ENTIRE tenure with the Bengals (9 years), he only hit 65+ one year.
If you compare Burrow's 2020 to just a year ago in the NFL, he would have been tied for 12th. That's not a generation ago, just a year. So yes, I still consider 65 to be good.
Let's put this debate to rest because you're trying to nitpick something that is subjective.
I consider 65% to be highly accurate. It's a hard number for me. I don't really care how many others are hitting that number.
You consider highly accurate to be based on whether someone is Top 10 or top half of the league.
You are free to interpret how you want, but I am free to use my own grading scale.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - fredtoast - 12-08-2020
The NFL is manipulating the game through the officials.
Passing numbers are skyrocketing because officials are calling a lot more defensive pass interference penalties and a lot fewer holding calls on O-linemen. It has been a couple of weeks since I saw the story but PI calls are up by about 33% and holding calls were about half of what they were last year. So they are making it harder for DBs to play coverage and also making it easier to protect the QB.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - TheLeonardLeap - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 06:46 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I didn't compare Dalton's rookie year to Burrow's rookie year. I said Dalton's ENTIRE tenure with the Bengals (9 years), he only hit 65+ one year.
If you compare Burrow's 2020 to just a year ago in the NFL, he would have been tied for 12th. That's not a generation ago, just a year. So yes, I still consider 65 to be good.
Let's put this debate to rest because you're trying to nitpick something that is subjective.
I consider 65% to be highly accurate. It's a hard number for me. I don't really care how many others are hitting that number.
You consider highly accurate to be based on whether someone is Top 10 or top half of the league.
You are free to interpret how you want, but I am free to use my own grading scale.
And yet from 2012-2016, Dalton was above-average in completion %. Carson Palmer also only hit 65+ one year, but he was WELL above average in accuracy in 5 of his 7 years as a Bengal.
If you compare Burrow's 2020 to just a year ago, defenses had training camps and preseason, and at least 10 teams didn't have DL opt out of the season.
I am not nitpicking to point out a statistically undeniable fact that Burrow in 2020 was below average in accuracy. That's not an opinion, it's not subjective. It's just reality. You're free to choose to ignore reality, I am just pointing it out.
At this rate, in just a few years your 65 number is going to be the new 55 unless they do something to change the path the NFL and it's rules currently are on.
Dan Marino, HoF QB, has a career 59.4% completion rate, which would be terrible now, and according to your static method not accurate... but he was above average in accuracy for the first 15 years of his 16 year career, most of the time well above. Yet Dan Marino never reached 65%, and only was above 60% 5 times in his 16 years. Static numbers make no sense. Compare them to their peers in their respective years, as that's the only way to actually gauge it.
:andy:
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 08:30 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: And yet from 2012-2016, Dalton was above-average in completion %. Carson Palmer also only hit 65+ one year, but he was WELL above average in accuracy in 5 of his 7 years as a Bengal.
If you compare Burrow's 2020 to just a year ago, defenses had training camps and preseason, and at least 10 teams didn't have DL opt out of the season.
I am not nitpicking to point out a statistically undeniable fact that Burrow in 2020 was below average in accuracy. That's not an opinion, it's not subjective. It's just reality. You're free to choose to ignore reality, I am just pointing it out.
At this rate, in just a few years your 65 number is going to be the new 55 unless they do something to change the path the NFL and it's rules currently are on.
Dan Marino, HoF QB, has a career 59.4% completion rate, which would be terrible now, and according to your static method not accurate... but he was above average in accuracy for the first 15 years of his 16 year career, most of the time well above. Yet Dan Marino never reached 65%, and only was above 60% 5 times in his 16 years. Static numbers make no sense. Compare them to their peers in their respective years, as that's the only way to actually gauge it.
:andy:
I'm with you on this. And I think Burrow has tremendous potential.
Our passing game was basically the same efficiency as last year despite having an amazing rookie QB. It's another indictment of the coaching staff.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - TheLeonardLeap - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 08:47 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'm with you on this. And I think Burrow has tremendous potential.
Our passing game was basically the same efficiency as last year despite having an amazing rookie QB. It's another indictment of the coaching staff.
Yeah, I think Burrow *will* be great. So I am not particularly worried. (Assuming this coaching staff gets canned like they deserve.)
We're on the same page that the coaching staff is a big part of the problem. While the OL was always going to be a problem that probably kept them out of top-10 contention, I believe a good HC/OC would be enough to at least make it above average.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-08-2020
(12-08-2020, 08:52 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, I think Burrow *will* be great. So I am not particularly worried. (Assuming this coaching staff gets canned like they deserve.)
We're on the same page that the coaching staff is a big part of the problem. While the OL was always going to be a problem that probably kept them out of top-10 contention, I believe a good HC/OC would be enough to at least make it above average.
No doubt. Running the ball effectively and hitting deep throws are big things that need fixed.
Zac cant fix things though. We added Burrow, Tee, AJ, and Jonah this year and the offense was similarly ranked to last year.
Adding talent just doesnt help because of the staff.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - ochocincos - 12-09-2020
(12-08-2020, 08:30 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: And yet from 2012-2016, Dalton was above-average in completion %. Carson Palmer also only hit 65+ one year, but he was WELL above average in accuracy in 5 of his 7 years as a Bengal.
If you compare Burrow's 2020 to just a year ago, defenses had training camps and preseason, and at least 10 teams didn't have DL opt out of the season.
I am not nitpicking to point out a statistically undeniable fact that Burrow in 2020 was below average in accuracy. That's not an opinion, it's not subjective. It's just reality. You're free to choose to ignore reality, I am just pointing it out.
At this rate, in just a few years your 65 number is going to be the new 55 unless they do something to change the path the NFL and it's rules currently are on.
Dan Marino, HoF QB, has a career 59.4% completion rate, which would be terrible now, and according to your static method not accurate... but he was above average in accuracy for the first 15 years of his 16 year career, most of the time well above. Yet Dan Marino never reached 65%, and only was above 60% 5 times in his 16 years. Static numbers make no sense. Compare them to their peers in their respective years, as that's the only way to actually gauge it.
:andy:
It's not that you're nitpicking that Burrow is "below average" in accuracy. It's that you're nitpicking the use of my word "highly."
The actual reality is we are using two different scales to determine what is high. You are using where he falls among the starters, I am using a hard number that I determined was good by what the typical completion percentage has been the past handful of years. I still personally consider 65% to be good. If you don't because the other QBs are higher than that, that's your choice.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-09-2020
(12-09-2020, 11:08 AM)ochocincos Wrote: It's not that you're nitpicking that Burrow is "below average" in accuracy. It's that you're nitpicking the use of my word "highly."
The actual reality is we are using two different scales to determine what is high. You are using where he falls among the starters, I am using a hard number that I determined was good by what the typical completion percentage has been the past handful of years. I still personally consider 65% to be good. If you don't because the other QBs are higher than that, that's your choice.
I'd say mid-range and under Burrow is extremely accurate. On long range throws, he's not good. Now maybe that is the receivers fault in some cases. Maybe other factors, but he needs to improve it...
Against Pittsburgh and Washington I saw some wobbly throws from him on maybe 25-30 yard throws. That kind of worried me some.
That's the true cost of this injury. It robbed him of an offseason of working on his arm strength and mechanics on deep throws.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - ochocincos - 12-09-2020
(12-09-2020, 11:15 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'd say mid-range and under Burrow is extremely accurate. On long range throws, he's not good. Now maybe that is the receivers fault in some cases. Maybe other factors, but he needs to improve it...
Against Pittsburgh and Washington I saw some wobbly throws from him on maybe 25-30 yard throws. That kind of worried me some.
That's the true cost of this injury. It robbed him of an offseason of working on his arm strength and mechanics on deep throws.
Your assessment of his short, middle, and long range is on point. Some of it is the receivers' fault, but some is Burrow. And that's ok because we knew going into the draft that he didn't have the best deep ball. He may be able to improve it, but I'm not worried if he doesn't. I still think he'll be very successful...if the Bengals get a competent OL and defense to help him.
RE: NFL passing efficiency - - THE PISTONS - 12-09-2020
(12-09-2020, 11:21 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Your assessment of his short, middle, and long range is on point. Some of it is the receivers' fault, but some is Burrow. And that's ok because we knew going into the draft that he didn't have the best deep ball. He may be able to improve it, but I'm not worried if he doesn't. I still think he'll be very successful...if the Bengals get a competent OL and defense to help him.
Indeed. His most impressive attribute to me, aside from mid-range throws was not throwing ints.
I think that IF you put a competent running game along with his skillset right now, that competent coaches could win.
With the lack of run game, the Steelers created the template to defend us. You basically rush 4 and get pressure. Then take a way the mid-range throws as best you can.