(12-25-2021, 11:17 PM)Clark W Griswold Wrote: Yeah the only time I know who to root for is when an AFC team plays an NFC team.
I know today I am rooting for Green Bay (that we close but they won) and the Cardinals.

The rest I guess just pull for the team with the fewest wins. Not sure about these Cleveland vs Pittsburgh vs Baltimore games.  
I don’t know all of the possible scenarios but if the Bengals beat Baltimore and Cleveland then they will win the division (right?)

(12-25-2021, 11:33 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: If we beat Baltimore and win one game from our last two, we still need the Steelers to lose one of their final three games.  If all that happens, we are division champs.  Cleveland can't get to 10 wins after tonight's loss, and if we beat Baltimore and finish 10-7 they could only tie us, and we will have swept them.  If the Steelers lose one of the three, then they can only get to 9-7-1 at best.

So, the quickest way for us to win the division is:


- We beat Baltimore tomorrow
- KC beats Pitt tomorrow
- We beat KC next week

Then we rest our players up in Cleveland on 1/9, and they can just sit on the bench and watch the polar bears chase seals out on Lake Erie.

(12-26-2021, 12:01 AM)WVUHomer Wrote: While I would rest the players, I feel like Cincy would play Cle to:
A. Remove them from the playoffs (if not already eliminated)
B. MB personal grudge
C. Higher playoff seating.


I could understand the justification of playoff seating but I don't think its necessary, especially since we do better (for the most part) on the road this season.

(12-25-2021, 11:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In depth look at our defense.

Bengals are middle of the pack in many areas. They are almost dead on league average allowing 4840 total yds (4856 avg) and 5.4 yards per play (5.4 avg).  They are 16th in percentage of drives they end with a turnover, 17th in third down conversions rate and 15th in Red zone td percentage.

They are very good at stopping the run (4th in yds/game, 7th rush tds, 10th yds/att).

They give up a lot of passing yards (26th), but they are 16th in pass efficiency rating.  I don't understand all the new stats for pass rushing.  The Bengals are 8th in sack percentage, but much lower in "hurry percentage" (15th), "pressure percentage" (15th) and "quarterback knockdown percentage" (22nd).  All I know is that the pass rush seems solid this year.  The jets game seemed like something from the twilight zone.  I still do not understand what happened there.

Overall it adds up to the number 11 scoring defense.  And points are what it is all about.

I say the numbers back up my overall impression.  I think we are good against the run and we get a good pass rush mostly from our d-line.  But we have some problems in coverage.  Hard to tell if it is players or coaching, but with the pass rush we get we should not give up as many passing yards as we do.

(12-26-2021, 12:44 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure if everyone is good and beating up on each other, or if everyone is mediocre and no one is standing out. If we get a ring, I won't care which one it is.

(12-26-2021, 12:55 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I agree, a Super Bowl win would take away all the offseason drama about the draft and the front office and the coaching and etc. 

That said, while I think the AFC is such a shitshow and anyone can win, the NFC is really top heavy and Green Bay looks legit.

(12-25-2021, 11:33 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: If we beat Baltimore and win one game from our last two, we still need the Steelers to lose one of their final three games.  If all that happens, we are division champs.  Cleveland can't get to 10 wins after tonight's loss, and if we beat Baltimore and finish 10-7 they could only tie us, and we will have swept them.  If the Steelers lose one of the three, then they can only get to 9-7-1 at best.

So, the quickest way for us to win the division is:


- We beat Baltimore tomorrow
- KC beats Pitt tomorrow
- We beat KC next week

Then we rest our players up in Cleveland on 1/9, and they can just sit on the bench and watch the polar bears chase seals out on Lake Erie.

(12-26-2021, 12:55 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I agree, a Super Bowl win would take away all the offseason drama about the draft and the front office and the coaching and etc. 

That said, while I think the AFC is such a shitshow and anyone can win, the NFC is really top heavy and Green Bay looks legit.

(12-26-2021, 01:05 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Agreed. Can't count out Tampa, either. I'm sure they'll be pretty dominant vome playoff time.

(12-26-2021, 01:18 AM)Tony Wrote: Green Bay defense is horrid the last 2 weeks.. They are lucky Baker turned it over 4 times..

(12-26-2021, 01:16 AM)Tony Wrote: Let's be real here.. Pissburgh ain't getting in. No way in hell they beat KC..

(12-26-2021, 12:10 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I highly doubt we beat KC.  

Beat Baltimore & hope the Browns are already eliminated by the last game.

(12-25-2021, 09:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have never seen anything like this before.  13 of the 16 teams in the AFC are at .500 or better with 3 games left.  And with 8 wins enough to get in the top 7 right now that means every one of those teams have a legit shot at a playoff spot.  If we lose and start needing help from other teams it will be crazy trying to keep track of who to root for every week.

Every team in both the AFCN and AFCW are at .500 or better, and 10 of our 17 games this year are against those teams. 3 of our other opponents are also at .500 or better (Min, GB, SF).  So right now that projects to 13 of our 17 games being against teams .500 or better.

So what can we look at to rank all these teams bunched together with 7 or 8 wins?

Bengals are 5th (out of 16) in AFC in scoring, 10th in points allowed, and 5th in point differential (+66) behind the Bills (+151), Patriots (+140), Colts (+98), and Chiefs (+89).

The Titans have by far the best record against teams with winning records at 6-3.  After them 3 teams are 3-3 (Bengals, Patriots, Ravens).  No other team has more than 3 wins and are all under .500 against winning teams.

(12-25-2021, 11:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In depth look at our defense.

Bengals are middle of the pack in many areas. They are almost dead on league average allowing 4840 total yds (4856 avg) and 5.4 yards per play (5.4 avg).  They are 16th in percentage of drives they end with a turnover, 17th in third down conversions rate and 15th in Red zone td percentage.

They are very good at stopping the run (4th in yds/game, 7th rush tds, 10th yds/att).

They give up a lot of passing yards (26th), but they are 16th in pass efficiency rating.  I don't understand all the new stats for pass rushing.  The Bengals are 8th in sack percentage, but much lower in "hurry percentage" (15th), "pressure percentage" (15th) and "quarterback knockdown percentage" (22nd).  All I know is that the pass rush seems solid this year.  The jets game seemed like something from the twilight zone.  I still do not understand what happened there.

Overall it adds up to the number 11 scoring defense.  And points are what it is all about.

I say the numbers back up my overall impression.  I think we are good against the run and we get a good pass rush mostly from our d-line.  But we have some problems in coverage.  Hard to tell if it is players or coaching, but with the pass rush we get we should not give up as many passing yards as we do.